by Anthony Fernandez, March 14th, 2015
[1.1] 
DE Frank Clark, Michigan 
The Eagles actually don't have a Defensive End on their roster (pending Pre-Free Agency signings, of course), so why not go and add the freakiest one to come out in quite some time? Looking over what Kevin has on his roster, I really think that he'd love to add Clark at [1.2], and maybe that's why he traded up. Clark literally looks like the prototype RE for the 34 schemes that used to dominate in RZL/GZL. All that said, the Eagles are a long way from competing, and are NOT just one player away. If I'm in Philly, I'm auctioning off this pick for someone who wants to get ahead of Kevin for Clark or Waller. But then again, rarely does the NEED intersect with BPA quite like this, so if the Eagles are picking here I think it's a lock this is there guy.
[1.2] 
WR Darren Waller, Georgia Tech 
As stated above, I think the Jets would love Clark, who would be a bowling ball on the other side of recent top pick Dee Ford. If he's gone, however, the Jets won't cry too long for settling on Waller. I know there have been some very good CBs that have been linked to this spot, but the Jets just spent BANK on their secondary in Free Agency, and are on the hotseat. With that in mind, why draft a talented CB you might develop for someone else to benefit from? Wide Receivers, however? Rookies can do some damage. Especially with that size. Last year's #1 overall pick Mike Evans finished 4th in yards in the entire league last year, and fellow rookie Kevin Norwood wasn't far behind. I'm sure Kevin could get 1200+ yards and 8-10 TDs from a rookie Waller. I had heard through the grapevine that Waller may fall on draft day... and 24 years old with 67 AWR and 73 CTH is a slight cause for concern... but you can't coach 6'6". Maybe Kev trades out, but you have it right from his own mouth that he's narrowed this pick to Clark, Waller, and CB Jones. In this scenario, one of them is gone, and Jones is not a smart Hot Seat pick at #2 overall.
[1.3] 
SS Landon Collins, Alabama 
This was a tough one to predict. The Broncos have made a point to trade bit by bit up the draft board. But for who? Gurley is probably the best player left, but the Broncos have a pretty young and productive RB that they got for much better value. I know the Bills fan jokes of him taking Diggs, but that would be a crazy reach, as he's not even the next best WR (or better than Landry who they traded). They could go CB Byron Jones, but I quite like CBs Gilbert and Bentley. They also don't have a SS on the roster. It's all but a lock that Collins will NOT be the pick in the first two picks... so I guess we'll know if they keep trying to go up the board. Perhaps Will and the Chargers brass leaked that Collins was in consideration at 1.3 and 1.4, so they scared a division rival to come up to 3 to get their guy. Safety
is a big need for the Chargers, so maybe Tom didn't even get tipped off, maybe he just assumed he needed to get above them for Collins. If I thought there was a chance in hell that Collins would have made it to [1.8], I'd have stayed there. But Collins is basically the ONLY FS/SS in the whole class worth a 1st round pick. Then you've got maybe 2-3 guys worth of a 2nd or early 3rd, and then a huge drop off to maybe the 5th. Like Kevin said in his trade block, this Safety class is rough, and it's almost smarter to just trade for one if you need one. The one exception, of course, is Collins - who is a total stud. Could I be way wrong? For sure. There is probably no GM I'm more out of tune with than this one. I could be way off on Collins. Tom has two giant WR and maybe he wants Waller to form the Triforce? The roster could definitely use a DE (if Clark slides), or even a RT or LB. But Collins is the best player here, in my uninformed opinion.
[1.4] 
WR Devante Parker, Louisville 
The Chargers have kind of owned the Top 5 picks for the majority of the offseason. They've been able to seamlessly move up and down, and have compiled a rolodex of team needs to know exactly where to go with this pick (or these picks, depending on what other teams do). That said, it's not easy to project what the team is going to do here. Whether they have one, or multiple, top 10 picks could drastically affect what they do here. In my opinion the two best guys left are Gurley and Byron Jones. The Chargers just re-upped with Gilmore on a long term contract and also traded for Patrick Peterson last year. As for Gurley, they have Carlos Hyde AND Davonta Freeman, so that's not a great fit. The smartest thing they could do would probably get a desperate team (like say the Lions) to give up the farm to move up. But I have no inside information, and don't know if that's going to happen. So operating on what I KNOW - I see a roster that desperately needs OL, another WR, safeties, and maybe a LB. Too high for LB (even with a pretty elite one in this class), Collins was the only FS/SS with a 1st round grade, and OL is deep enough to take later. There are a bunch of solid WRs to take, and while I've seen Cooper and Waller mocked here, I think Parker is the 2nd best guy in the class. 6'3" with 98 SPD, 95 ACC, and 86 CTH is a lethal combo. Plus only 22 years old. In a perfect world, perhaps Will trades down and takes a guy like Cooper, Clay, Davis, or even Funchess (this WR class is very deep again), but if I have them staying at 1.4, WR seems likely.
[1.5] 
HB Todd Gurley, Georgia 
**Hypothetical Trade**
I'm not quite sure what the Lions have that could even entice a move from the Chargers - but the Lions have been trying to move a CB on their trade block for a "top 15 pick". It's possible a team in the Top 15 looks at that and thinks a guy like Vontae Davis will help them more than the 3rd best CB in the draft class. But that wouldn't be enough for [1.5], and it WOULD drastically hurt the Lions secondary. But you could make a real argument that as long as the team has Sam Bradford, Jonathan Baldwin, Dezmon Briscoe, TODD GURLEY, and an already solid OL... that it really doesn't matter too much what's going on with their Defense. Just sign some vets and go get a ring. Gurley is my favorite player in this class, and even at [1.5] he's a steal. He's also the only HB in the class whose private workout wasn't a letdown. The HBs behind Gurley and Gordon, while look good on paper, all disappoint in private workouts. If the Lions could get Gordon in the teens, that's probably a better move... but there's no guarantee he won't get over-drafted himself. Make the bold move and go get your guy.
[1.6] 
CB Byron Jones, UConn 
No insider information here, but I don't think that the addition of Darren McFadden would have precluded the Steelers from taking HB Todd Gurley here, if the Lions (or someone else) don't jump ahead of them. It's also entirely possible that the Steelers trade this pick (or maybe have already), but if they are picking at six and Bryon Jones is still on the board, they probably run to turn the card in. The guy who some had going as high as 1 or 2 falls in this mock based solely on the guys in the Top 5 being solid at CB. Jones is only 6'1", so he doesn't have the elite size you want on a Top 6 CB pick, but at 99 speed, 98 agility, 97 acceleration, 62 catch, 64 tackle, and 72 strength... nearly perfect. Fantastic prospect. Sleeper alternate pick for this spot? Crablegs Winston. He's got all the tools, is only 21 years old, and it's pretty clear that the Jaguars won't let him slide past 7. The Steelers and Jaguars did the Brohm dance this offseason, before he ended up elsewhere, but the Steelers might be wise to nab a guy for Schaub to mentor (or trade this pick for a team like the Giants trying to jump Jacksonville to get Jameis.) Ultimately though, Byron is too good to pass up.
[1.7] 
QB Jameis "Crab Legs" Winston, Florida State 
It's no secret that the Jaguars need to add a QB. They did agree to bring Byron Leftwich back home to Jacksonville, but at 85 THP, he's probably just a mentor at this point in his career. Pairing him with Jameis would be great, and then you just hope that Leftwich sticks around for his year 36 season so you get two years (and +10AWR) out of Lefty. Not much analysis past that required - Jameis is 6'4" and 21 years old, already at 69AWR with a mentor sitting on the bench waiting for him to be 80+AWR for year 2. That's huge. 98 throw power and near 80 throw accuracy? The guy is going to be a stud. His high strength and break tackle
could mean he'll be over 80 overall and you won't get the Training Camp bonus.. but he's such a lock you really don't need it. Any fears of burning a top 10 pick on a QB and missing out on the other elite talent available disappeared when the team was able to secure the 8th overall pick, too. Go get your QB, and then add a weapon.
[1.8] HB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin 
The Jaguars truly will have a new identity next year, but they've got a lot of really talented pieces at key positions that will prevent this from being a true "rebuild". CB Dowling, CB Butler, WR Bryant, WR Blackmon, their entire LB crew... these are standout players that could play for any team. But after the trades of Brohm, Dixon, and Nelson... they do seemingly lack a bit of offensive identity. Jameis is going to get good quick... BUT there will still be rough year or two. If you're going to take your lumps at QB, may as well take them at HB, too. Gordon is NOT the best HB in this class, regardless of what Breck tells you. But he's a good consolation prize to Gurley. He's the only other HB in this class worthy of a 1st round pick, and while 8 would be early... it's worth not losing him. If they could move down a couple picks (10-15 range) and still get Gordon, that would be ideal. Gordon's private workout wasn't as good as Gurley's, but it didn't hurt him much as a prospect, either. But anyone looking for a HB in this class already knows that. Hopefully they worked out enough of the REST of the class to know there is a decent dropoff after the top two guys are gone. I insist that the HB trade market this offseason was drastically undervalued based off of the hype around this HB class... but I think some of that was overblown. I'd 100% rather sign HB Daniel Thomas (Dolphins) to a max deal for a future 1st than spend a Top 10 pick on Gurley or Gordon... or God forbid, use a pick in the 10's or 20's for whatever HBs are left past these two guys. But people like shiny new toys. If the Jaguars get Winston and Gordon... shiny new toys will be secured.
[1.9] 
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
Sydney Rice is a year away from regression, Andre Johnson is 34 years old, and Kyle Orton has another elite year or two before he's just a mentor. If the 49ers are going to compete, they need to add him some weapons. Last year Ryan Grant was just about the ONLY WR in the 1st round I
didn't private workout, and he turned out extremely nice. 6'1" with 99/98/99 for the 30th pick is amazing. But a nice guy WR2 next to him might be the play. Now typically when a guy gets a steal like that in the 30s one year, it's hard for them to turn around and burn a Top 10 pick on the same position, but there are some sick nasty players at WR in this class AGAIN this year. I think they'd be wise to add some size to create matchup issues (6'2" Kaelin Clay? 6'3" Chris Conley? 6'3" Geremy Davis? 6'4" Devin Funchess?). But given their need to have a polished player suit up with Orton, I think the team might lean towards Amari Coooper's 66 awareness and 88 catch. Cooper at 6'1" with some speed boosts would be deadly as quick as THIS year. There are some other routes the 49ers could go, but I think Cooper at 9 is great value, fits a need, and solves a problem.
[1.10] 
LE Preston Smith, Mississippi State 
Hard not to mock a wide receiver here, because I think this team has a similar problem to San Fran... aging vet QB with mediocre weapons. But the team just traded the best WR in SFL last year for a Top 10 pick straight up, so you have to think if they valued a WR that early, they'd have just kept him. So looking at their other needs - there is still a steal at CB and OLB here, but they are ok there. Also some OL that won't last much longer (despite the media spins by the public to get them to drop). But ultimately LE is probably their biggest need. They just sent Vinny Curry to me for a 6th, perhaps clearing out room. Preston has much lower ACC than I prefer, but he's elite everywhere else. Good size, ELITE speed and strength. The 33 awareness and 58 tackle are both kind of scary for a GM flirting with the hot seat, but sometimes you can get good progress from a dummy on the defensive line.
[1.11] 
LOLB Kwon Alexander, LSU 
Surprise pick?!?! Maybe. It's possible it's my Buccaneers bias showing through, but I love Kwon. I still can't believe the Buccaneers drafted Jameis, Kwon, Marpet, and Donovan Smith in the same draft class and couldn't even win 10 games with that crew, haha. But at least Marpet and Smith got a ring. As for this pick, I'm sure an OLB at 11 will turn some heads, but Nathan took MLB Prince Shembo last year at 14 overall (much higher than projected) and everyone praised the pick. The same folks who will tell you that you're reaching BEFORE a draft will be the first to give you props AFTER the draft. It's misinformation season, after all. But what is NOT misinformation is that Kwon is 22 years old, 88 speed, 87 agility, 90 acceleration, 79 strength, 46 awareness, 58 catch, and 87 tackle. Skew withstanding, almost a clone of Shembo. He's a little undersized at 227lbs and 6'1", but he's going to be a little heat seeking missile off the edge. Keep the Louisiana boy in his home state.
[1.12] 
CB Marcus Peters, Washington 
Definitely would be a surprise if the 2nd best CB in the class drops to 12 (and only two in the top 12), but that's just how I see the NEEDs matching up with the slots. Sure, there could be trades or some of these teams could just go BPA, but I think there's a chance CBs slide a bit. Peters is not a HUGE need for the Ravens, but is too good value to pass up. I think ideally they'd look at LB, WR, or even Safety... but there are no other safeties worthy of a 1st round pick, the WRs are so deep they'll likely last a while longer, and the potential for greatness at CB for Peters exceeds the next best LB. At only 6', he's not perfect, but 94 speed, 97 acceleration, 60 awareness, 62 strength, 77 catch, and 54 tackle means he's going to be contributing pretty soon. That's good news for a team that is always either IN the playoff hunt, or lurking around the wild card scene.
[1.13] 
WR Geremy Davis, UConn
The rich get richer! The Cardinals are annually one of the best teams in the NFC, but I think the playoff loss to the Vikings might have given Scott a little sense of what-is-to-come. Scott has been doing a good job stocking up and reloading at key positions, while also not being afraid to diversify the approach (talented vets, promising youth). While it would be easy to pencil in a LB here to replace what they sent to Tennessee, I think it would be smart to grab a young WR to grow with Barkley. Barkley has another year of being mentored by Grossman, and while the WR options aren't bad (Gettis, Floyd, Allen) - Gettis is 28, and Floyd is on an expiring contract (so could be easily flipped for a Future 1st). So that's my case for why WR makes sense. However, THIS WR? I know he's not Diggs, but Scott definitely has a TYPE at WR. Big, fast. Davis is 6'3" with 95/95/94 and already has 87 catch. I think with a good skew and some AP love, he'll be a real force, similar to Cody Latimer who was taken at 15 last year.
[1.14] 
TE Tyler Kroft, Rutgers 
I have it on good authority that the Giants are down at least ONE giant pass catching TE. They could rectify that here by getting a clear upgrade on Rudolph. It's pretty close between Kroft and Blake Bell, so maybe the Giants go with another position here and hope Bell drops to their [1.23] pick, but I just think they'll both be gone by then. Kroft is comparable to Eifert, who was a #8 overall pick, so there is value to be had there. Kroft is two years younger than Bell, which I think gives him the edge in the age of regression.
[1.15] 
CB Eric Rowe, Utah 
Pretty easy call here. I'm sure the Falcons wanted Byron Jones, and would probably be kicking themselves to see he fell to 6 overall in this scenario, but a trade down from [1.5] for more assets and Eric Rowe is not a bad consolation prize. Rowe is 6'1", 95 speed, 98 agility, 95 acceleration, 53 awareness, 51 catch, 71 tackle, and 70 strength. I'd normally advise against drafting a CB when you're on the hot seat, but the Falcons are drastically void of talent at the position and benefit from the CB slide that is happening in this hypothetical mock.
[1.16] 
WR Kaelin Clay, UConn
Ah, what do you buy for that guy who has EVERYTHING? Haha. The NFC Champions are stacked, and not just with good players, but with GREAT, YOUNG players. One area that might not hurt to bulk up is at WR. So how about the THIRD UConn guy in the Top 16 (football powerhouse)?!?! Caldwell and Streeter are solid, but they will have to draft some WRs over the weekend regardless cause there are no other ones on the roster. So why not, in this hypothetical mock, take the guy many had as the 2nd or 3rd WR off the board?!? Clay is 6'2" and 216lbs, so has plenty of size. He's 99 speed, 92 agility, 99 acceleration, 83 catch... so will not require much additional work. Now Neal is a professional who grades every class, so maybe he doesn't have Clay as high as me (45 awareness or 34 strength scary?) - but I'd be surprised if it played out like this and he didn't take a WR. The value is there, and it would surely be nice to have a young weapon to grow with Tyler Wilson.
Thanks for reading! Hopefully picks 17-32 will post tomorrow.
