2015 SFL Draft Preview
The 2015 draft is upon us and this class perhaps more than any other I can remember is a contrast of great physical talent with unbelievably dicey AWR. Will has done a really good job of laying out the class in such a way that it will reveal the attribute priorities and risk tolerance of all 32 GM’s. Sources have revealed that likely from the first overall pick we will see players in their 30’s in AWR being selected. Will it work? I guess only time will tell but this draft class will definitely give GM’s info about how their other GM’s evaluate talent.
QB’s
Jameis Winston- 21 years old, 6’4”, 231 lbs.
69 AWR | 98 THP | 78 THA | 94 INJ
Winston is the best of the bunch but that’s not saying much in this year’s draft. The more that he can skew up in THA the more valuable he becomes.
Sean Mannion- 23 years old, 6’5”, 229 lbs.
58 AWR | 98 THP | 77 THA | 88 INJ
Mannion is a project QB with higher upside though he’ll take a few years to get there. The good news is that his 98 THP allows for a longer window once he develops.
Marcus Mariota- 21 years old, 6’4”, 222 lbs.
59 AWR | 90 THP | 81 THA | 83 INJ
Mariota is almost certainly going to be a scrambler and as such will require significant activity points to get right. He is very young and has better THA than Mannion. Basically if he weren’t a scrambler he would be the second best QB in the draft class.
RB’s
Melvin Gordon- 22 years old, 6’1”, 215 lbs.
92 SPD | 82 STR | 63 AWR | 93 AGI | 97 ACC | 75 CAR | 89 BTK
Gordon edges Gurley for me but I totally understand if others see Gurley as the top of this class. Gordon has great ACC to go along with all the other attributes. His only slight weakness is CAR but that can progress quickly.
Todd Gurley- 20 years old, 6’1”, 232 lbs.
94 SPD | 80 STR | 54 AWR | 93 AGI | 92 ACC | 91 CAR | 85 BTK
Gurley is also a stud. GM’s will point out that he is only 20 years old and possesses elite level physical attributes which could make him even better than Gordon. I won’t argue that point, but I still prefer Gordon just slightly. Both guys are high end players pre-skew.
Jay Ajayi- 22 years old, 6’0”, 221 lbs.
92 SPD | 78 STR | 51 AWR | 86 AGI | 90 ACC | 75 CAR | 90 BTK
Don’t sleep on Ajayi! He’s a really good back as well. More of a project than either Gordon and Gurley, he has elite level BTK and great CTH. Some GM’s don’t care about CTH but if you do, Ajayi is a potential target for you.
David Johnson- 23 years old, 6’1”, 224 lbs.
93 SPD | 71 STR | 53 AWR | 93 AGI | 96 ACC | 77 CAR | 77 BTK
Johnson is an all-around good back with great physical attributes. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is a better runner than Ajayi and he’s only 2 behind him in CTH. The problem for Johnson is that he will need some time to develop his BTK.
Thomas Rawls- 22 years old, 5’9”, 215 lbs.
91 SPD | 73 STR | 59 AWR | 91 AGI | 91 ACC | 81 CAR | 80 BTK
Rawls is a short, no frills RB who can do the job. Teams that don’t place a premium on RB’s might be able to snag him in the 2nd or 3rd round and find a productive RB starter.
TE’s
Tyler Kroft- 22 years old, 6’5”, 247 lbs.
91 SPD | 71 STR | 51 AWR | 80 AGI | 94 ACC | 71 CTH | 59 PBK | 50 RBK
Kroft is truly an elite athletic TE and will go very high in this draft. His AWR is lower at 51 but that’s actually really high for this draft class. I would think top 20 for Kroft for sure.
Blake Bell- 24 years old, 6’6”, 250 lbs.
90 SPD | 70 STR | 33 AWR | 81 AGI | 87 ACC | 63 CTH | 65 PBK | 69 PBK
Bell is another elite athletic TE not quite as elite as Kroft but still very elite. His AWR however is it an alarming 33 and CTH is at a low 63. I’m not sure how effective he can be until that AWR and CTH go up.
Clive Wolford- 22 years old, 6’4”, 258 lbs.
81 SPD | 71 STR | 54 AWR | 81 AGI | 81 ACC | 77 CTH | 61 PBK | 54 RBK’
I have Wolford next, but I don’t find him to be anything special. In a normal year he’s probably a good backup but he may get a harder look since the class is pretty shallow.
Jesse James- 21 years old, 6’7”, 261 lbs.
83 SPD | 74 STR | 39 AWR | 85 AGI | 76 ACC | 77 CTH | 67 PBK | 61 RBK
I like James as upside blocking TE who can also be a receiver. He has two specific problems that will hold him back: 1) his 39 AWR and 2) his 76 ACC.
MyCole Pruitt- 23 years old, 6’2”, 251 lbs.
85 SPD | 70 STR | 42 AWR | 78 AGI | 81 ACC | 81 CTH | 48 PBK | 60 RBK
I’m really high on Pruitt but he is a serviceable TE who if his SPD holds could be a good player in a couple of seasons. Despite some thinking to the contrary, I don’t love the fact that he is only 6’2”.
WR’s
Darren Waller- 24 years old, 6’6”, 255 lbs.
95 SPD | 64 STR | 67 AWR | 88 AGI | 94 ACC | 73 CTH | 97 JMP
Waller is the class of the WR class. I get he’s 24 years old and that shortens his career arc a bit but he’s 6’6”, 255 lbs. and will be above 95 SPD and 95 ACC. You don’t find players like him even in a saturated position like WR.
Kaelin Clay- 22 years old, 6’2”, 216 lbs.
99 SPD | 34 STR | 45 AWR | 92 AGI | 99 ACC | 83 CTH | 76 JMP
Clay is a prototypical speed receiver. Pathetic strength with uber elite SPD and ACC. He goes 6’2” so think in terms of a player along the lines of Robert Meachem.
Devante Parker- 22 years old, 6’3”, 209 lbs.
98 SPD | 27 STR | 52 AWR | 88 AGI | 95 ACC | 86 CTH | 76 JMP
Parker, just like Clay, is a prototypical speed receiver. He’s an inch taller but a little bit slower. Neither he nor Clay have JMP but I don’t think that necessarily matters. Parker and Clay should be top 20 picks.
Amari Cooper- 21 years old, 6’1”, 211 lbs.
94 SPD | 50 STR | 66 AWR | 94 AGI | 98 ACC | 88 CTH | 86 JMP
Cooper is a plug and play WR with great AWR and CTH. He’s not the tallest WR you will find but he does everything so well it’s hard to not value him. He fits into the profile of someone the Seahawks could take a run at. Think Michael Crabtree and Shaq Evans.
Chris Conley- 22 years old, 6’3”, 205 lbs.
94 SPD | 45 STR | 57 AWR | 96 AGI | 98 ACC | 80 CTH | 84 JMP
Conley won’t get the attention of some of the other guys in this class but he could be just as productive. I don’t mind taking a chance on a player with mid 90’s SPD with high AGI and ACC.
Geremy Davis- 22 years old, 6’3”, 211 lbs.
95 SPD | 38 STR | 42 AWR | 95 AGI | 94 ACC | 87 CTH | 76 JMP
For some Davis, will be higher on the list. His height, SPD, ACC, and CTH combo will shoot him up the board. I personally don’t love the low AWR through with high CTH most of his progression points could be applied directly to AWR.
Stefon Diggs- 21 years old, 6’0”, 195 lbs.
95 SPD | 49 STR | 57 AWR | 97 AGI | 95 ACC | 85 CTH | 86 JMP
Diggs is a good receiver but he’s also someone that I don’t think GM’s will trade up to acquire. He reminds me of Odell Beckham Jr. without the blocking skills
Vince Mayle- 24 years old, 6’2”, 225 lbs.
95 SPD | 46 STR | 53 AWR | 97 AGI | 95 ACC | 80 CTH | 90 JMP
There would have been a day in an earlier draft when Mayle would have been a 1st round pick. Yeah he’s 24 years old, but he has really good physical traits and he’s 6’2”. If there’s a team that doesn’t have a 1st round pick but is in desperate need of a starting WR, Mayle is a great player to target.
OT’s
Brandon Scherff- 23 years old, 6’5”, 319 lbs.
71 SPD | 99 STR | 64 AWR | 78 AGI | 82 ACC | 79 PBK | 89 RBK
Scherff is a top class OT who only lacks a bit of PBK. His athleticism is rare and he has max STR which even if it skews down will eventually come back up to 99. I think he’s a top 10 talent but who knows if someone wants to take him there or not. Think a slightly better version of Lamar Holmes from the Bills.
Darryl Williams- 22 years old, 6’6”, 335 lbs.
73 SPD | 99 STR | 58 AWR | 75 AGI | 85 ACC | 75 PBK | 86 RBK
Williams is actually even a slightly better athlete than Scherff he just doesn’t have the AWR or the blocking skills but he is still elite. I don’t think we even have a comp for his athleticism and size.
D.J. Humphries- 21 years old, 6’5”, 315 lbs.
65 SPD | 96 STR | 55 AWR | 76 AGI | 76 ACC | 94 PBK | 81 RBK
Humphries is another very good OT though perhaps a little below Scherff and Williams in talent. He does have better blocking skills than either which could make his position in the draft intriguing. Think a Joel Bitonio from the Dolphins.
Andrus Peat- 21 years old, 6’7”, 316 lbs.
63 SPD | 88 STR | 66 AWR | 69 AGI | 77 ACC | 89 PBK | 84 RBK
Peat’s the guy if you don’t care about STR. He is a starter from day one with his AWR and blocking skills plus he’s tall and only 21.
Rob Havenstein- 23 years old, 6’7”, 321 lbs.
62 SPD | 96 STR | 56 AWR | 74 AGI | 79 ACC | 71 PBK | 90 RBK
Havenstein needs some development but he has all the tools. He needs some help in AWR and PBK. That PBK number in particular makes me a little nervous initially.
Ty Sambrailo- 23 years old, 6’5”, 315 lbs.
62 SPD | 94 STR | 62 AWR | 69 AGI | 80 ACC | 83 PBK | 75 RBK
Sambrailo is a safe fall back plan if you want to get an OT in round 2 or maybe even round 3. He just needs some RBK. I really do think he’s a good player with long-term value.
OG’s
Ali Marpet- 22 years old, 6’4”, 307 lbs.
68 SPD | 97 STR | 57 AWR | 78 AGI | 82 ACC | 80 PBK | 86 RBK
I like both Marpet and Tomlinson a lot. Marpet has the best blocking skills and higher ACC so he gets the nod. It’s difficult to know where to place OG’s in the draft. Do teams value them at the same level as OT’s? I’m just not sure. I think Marpet is a 1st round talent but I’m not sure it’s a 1st round position.
Laken Tomlinson- 23 years old, 6’3”, 323 lbs.
71 SPD | 99 STR | 64 AWR | 80 AGI | 77 ACC | 76 PBK | 85 RBK
Tomlinson has insane STR and AGI. His AGI is the best of any OG immediately. There are a couple of other OT’s with 80 AGI but man Tomlinson looks like a significant talent.
Mitch Morse- 22 years old, 6’6”, 305 lbs.
67 SPD | 98 STR | 49 AWR | 71 AGI | 77 ACC | 76 PBK | 91 RBK
If you can overlook AWR, you might be able to grab Morse in round 2 or round 3. He will pretty good once he is developed.
Ian Silberman- 21 years old, 6’5”, 305 lbs.
69 SPD | 97 STR | 57 AWR | 77 AGI | 82 ACC | 69 PBK | 79 RBK
Silberman is another example of the characteristic of this draft class where we have elite level physical attributes with horrifying non-physical attributes. He will go at some point this draft and I suspect before round 4 is done.
C’s
Cameron Erving- 23 years old, 6’5”, 313 lbs.
62 SPD | 95 STR | 53 AWR | 74 AGI | 76 ACC | 85 PBK | 77 RBK
I think Erving is the best of the bunch at C. The class has some physical talent but the blocking skills for most guys are just woeful.
Leon Brown- 23 years old, 6’6”, 320 lbs.
70 SPD | 96 STR | 54 AWR | 68 AGI | 73 ACC | 75 PBK | 84 RBK
Brown is the other guy that I think is worth a mention. His size, SPD, and STR are really good. Don’t particularly love the AGI or ACC.
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