Draft Class Steals
Every year there are good post-draft articles put out by SFL writers. One of those good articles is typically steals of the draft. It’s always great to see right after the draft who we think did well and who was selected later than they should have been. For the most part, the skew is a significant factor in how we read draft values that quickly and accurately.
However, what I wanted to do was to let the draft age for a while, like a good Bourbon, and then see who might be draft steals and values. I’m working on a list for several draft years but to launch this series of articles I am starting with the highly meaningful 2007 draft.
I want to offer a couple of thoughts before you read through this article. First, it’s really hard to single out 1st round picks for value. They are the bread and butter of this league and yet there are some players that have a substantial statistical legacy and even though they are early 1st round picks, they still have produced beyond their draft position. Second, each round has a slightly different criteria in terms of draft value. Typically, round 1 needs to be a statistically elite player by longevity or by individual season performance. Round 2 needs to be a good starter, round 3 a substantial starter and so on. Third, I’m leaving people off the list otherwise the article would be the size of a book. With that in mind, here’s a look at the 2007 draft steals and value picks. Enjoy!
2007
1.1- RT-Joe Thomas- 727 pancakes, 67 sacks (Currently 13th all time in pancakes)
Profile: Thomas was the 1st overall pick so how can I possible say he was a draft steal? Well, despite the fact I criticized the pick in real time, over the course of his nine year career, he had produced pancakes at the premium RT position. In three of his last four seasons he has registered 91, 93, and 98 pancakes. Finally, he currently ranks 13th all-time in pancakes with more pancakes yet to register. Basically, what I’m saying is that his longevity at a premium position has made him a value pick.
1.2- WR-Calvin Johnson- 622 catches, 10707 yards, 17.21 average, 67 TD’s
Profile: Calvin Johnson was draft 2nd overall by the Miami Dolphins. At 6’5”, 97 SPD and 97 ACC, the league had never seen a WR like him before other than maybe Randy Moss. The expectations were off the chars for Johnson and largely speaking he has met those expectations. He is currently 12th all time in receiving yards with another season or so left in a limited role in Detroit. The league is now full of WR’s similar if not quite to the level of CJ but his impact has been quite good and well worth his 2nd overall selection.
1.3- QB-Brady Quinn- 2176 completions, 4125 attempts, 52.75 comp %, 32911 yards, 265 TD’s, 135 interceptions, 87.1 QB rating
Profile:Brady Quinn’s inclusion here may be controversial. But if you take into account Quinn’s longevity, you start to see that there is value in this pick. Quinn’s rookie season culminated in a Super Bowl loss as a starting QB. It’s impressive enough to start for a winning team much less a Super Bowl team. Quinn spent the first 8 seasons in San Diego before being traded to Indianapolis before the 2015 season where he registered perhaps his best season yet with a 109.6 QB rating.
1.4- WR-Dwayne Jarrett- 603 catches, 10160 yards, 16.85 average, 64 TD’s
Profile: There are some cornerstone SFL stars that came out of the 2007 draft and Dwayne Jarrett was one of them. He’s had 7 1000 yard seasons in Baltimore where he has spent all nine seasons and he is currently 19th all-time in receiving yards. He has at least another 2 productive seasons in the league though his salary does limit some of the Ravens options.
1.8- WR-Robert Meachem- 541 catches, 10545 yards, 19.49 average, 88 TD’s
Profile:If Meachem could just have stayed healthy in 2008 and 2014 he would be higher up the WR pecking order. As it is he is still a profoundly influential WR. He was the first receiver that I can recall that had really low STR. It was a gamble on the part of the Cardinals GM that clearly paid off. Meachem spent 6 seasons in Arizona, before going to the Colts for 2 and he just finished the 2015 season in Dallas. An interesting piece to Meachem is his contract. He’s in the final year of a contract that is paying him only 2.61m. That’s about 13m less that Jarrett. Meachem is currently 15th all-time in receiving yards and 5th all-time in receiving TD’s.
1.11- HB-Marshawn Lynch- 2549 attempts, 11104 yards, 4.36 average, 58 TD’s (13th all time in rushing yards)
Profile: I remember quite a few GM’s interested in Lynch during this draft. He ended up going to the Panthers at pick 11 and he has produced well during his time in Carolina. He has spent all nine seasons there and has 8 1000 yard seasons during his time with the Panthers. He currently stand 13th all-time in rushing yards. It’s hard to know if he will be the feature back next season, so those numbers might not go up much. He was still a very good value.
2.13- LR-Ryan Harris- 630 pancakes, 22 sacks
Profile: Once you get into the 2nd round you are looking for starters not stars. However, Ryan Harris is an example of a very productive starter for 9 seasons and he looks like he might be a starter in year 10 as well. Harris played all of his first 9 seasons in New York with the Giants where he was a key part of their offensive line, never giving up more than 3 sacks. He is also currently 35th all-time in pancakes. He was dealt this offseason to the Super Bowl champion 49ers who know how to maximize veteran offensive linemen. Any time you can get what looks like a 10 year starter in round 2, you’ve gotten really good value.
2.29- WR-Sidney Rice- 595 catches, 10004 yards, 16.81 average, 87 TD’s
Profile: If there was ever a player that exemplified the success of the GM and the organization it would be Sidney Rice. Rice was drafted in a year where there superstar attribute WR’s and he was not thought to be one of them due to his horrifically low AGI. But the 49ers GM took a chance on him and that chance recently culminated in a Super Bowl victory. In 2015, Rice crossed the 10,000 receiving yard plateau and ranks 24th all-time in that category. He is also 7th all-time in receiving TD’s. This from a guy who started his career with 80 AGI. Kudos the 49ers GM for sticking with him. He may not be the #1 WR in San Francisco for much longer, but the value was clearly there at 2.29.
3.3- QB-Jordan Palmer- 1621 completions, 2997 attempts, 54.09 comp %, 25847, 192 TD’s, 114 interceptions, 88.6 QB rating
Profile: A QB in the 3rd round who is the starter on one of the most dominating Super Bowl winning teams we’ve seen is a great value in any round but particularly at the beginning of round 3. Palmer was taken by the Vikings and stayed in Minnesota for two season and then was traded to Miami where he flourished as the Dolphins starter. He has been a starter for 6 seasons and is still starter worthy though the Dolphins may use him more as a mentor in 2016.
3.31- SS-Eric Weddle- 632 tackles, 27 tackles for loss, 11 interceptions, 127 pass deflections
Profile: Weddle was drafted with the second to last pick in the 3rd round by the 49ers. He spent all nine seasons of his career in the NFC with the first four in San Francisco. After playing out his initial contract, the Giants signed him to a free agent deal in 2011 where he has spent the rest of his career.
4.15- LG-Mansfield Wrotto- 500 pancakes, 26 pancakes
Profile: Here’s a guy who throughout Madden leagues has not immediately brought to mind value or relevance. And yet when you look at the number, Wrotto has been a very serviceable LG take in the middle of the 4th round by the Broncos. He spent four seasons in Denver two of which were as a starter. Then in 2011 he was signed as a free agent by Carolina where he was a starter for another 5 seasons. 500 career pancakes is a very profitable pick for where he was drafted.
5.13- FS-Josh Gattis- 375 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 8 interceptions, 60 pass deflections
Profile: In the 5th round, if you can find a starter even at positions of less important you are doing well. Josh Gattis was one of those guys. He was originally drafted by the Vikings, but didn’t really see significant time there though he did fill in for a long-term injury if memory serves. However, after he played out his contract in Minnesota, he was signed as a free agent by the Falcons and there started for three seasons. He’s now regressing and I doubt anyone signs him but his numbers are pretty decent for a mid-5th round pick.
5.22- MLB-Buster Davis- 743 tackles, 95 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, and 24 interceptions
Profile: A real 5th round gem appears at pick 22 of the round in MLB-Buster Davis. Most GM’s wouldn’t even consider a guy with his height but the Falcons did and they were roundly rewarded for their selection. He started out with 76 AWR and 84 TAK, something that is pretty rare for drafts in general so he had some talent. His rookie season he burst onto the scene with 102 tackles and proceeded to have back-to-back-to-back 100 plus tackle seasons his first three years in the league. He would go on to be a 7 year starter in the league playing 6 of those seasons with 90 plus AWR. Teams would salivate at the thought of being able to find a player with his level of productivity in this year’s 5th round.
5.27- C-Samson Satele- 257 pancakes, 43 sacks
Profile: The Steelers had a stretch of time where they had too many good centers and really had to sort through what to do at the position. That stretch of time was as a direct result of this draft class and Satele’s value and skill level. Though he was taken in the late 5th round, he managed to be a center who produced in the league. He started the better part of 7 seasons, 5 of which were in Pittsburgh, before he was traded to the Bengals where he has spent the last two as a starter. He’s given up his fair share of sacks, but he’s clearly way over-earned his value as a pick in the late 5th round.
6.18- C-Leroy Harris- 337 pancakes, 31 sacks
Profile: This might have been a pick where the auto-draft meets GM went awry. But the Steelers made some good lemonade out of the lemon when they selected another center with the 18th pick in round 6. Harris became the Steelers starter in the 2009 season before moving to Denver in 2014. The Steelers accomplished something here I don’t think they would ever have envisioned, selected back-to-back starting centers in the 5th and 6th rounds of the 2007 draft. Pretty impressive!
6.32- SS-Marvin White- 522 tackles, 26 tackles for loss, 11 interceptions, and 118 pass deflections
Profile: One more player lands as a value pick in the 2007 draft and White’s value vs draft selection is pretty stunning. The SS was taken with the last pick in the 6th round. He played a couple of seasons in Atlanta but then went to Dallas, followed by Tampa, then Pittsburgh, and now Kansas City. He’s been on 5 different teams and he’s been a starter in at least 7 seasons. His numbers and story are stunning for being picked as late as he was. It just proves that sometimes even late 6th round picks are worth something in this league.
