Draft Class Steals
Here's the second installment of the draft class steals series.
Every year there are good post-draft articles put out by SFL writers. One of those good articles is typically steals of the draft. It’s always great to see right after the draft who we think did well and who was selected later than they should have been. For the most part, the skew is a significant factor in how we read draft values that quickly and accurately. However, what I wanted to do was to let the draft age for a while like a good Bourbon and then see who might be draft steals and values.
I want to offer a couple of thoughts before you read through this article. First, it’s really hard to single out 1st round picks for value. They are the bread and butter of this league and yet there are some players that have a substantial statistical legacy and though they are early 1st round picks, they still have produced beyond their draft position. Second, each round has a slightly different criteria in terms of draft value. Typically, round 1 needs to be a statistically elite player by longevity or by individual season performance. Round 2 needs to be a good starter, round 3 a substantial starter and so on. Third, I’m leaving people off the list otherwise the article would be the size of a book. With that in mind, here’s a look at the 2008 draft steals and value picks. Enjoy!
2008
1.2- TE-Gary Barnidge- 445 catches, 6800 yards, 15.28 yards, 53 TD’s
Profile: We are now in an era of elite athletic TE’s but that was not always the case. Gary Barnidge was the first of this era and he has really made an impact during his time in the league. He was drafted 2nd overall in the league by Eagles and some thought a TE that high in the draft was a little rich. But in terms of TE production Barnidge has been elite. He is currently 2nd all-time in receiving yards behind only the legend Tony Gonzalez and has a shot to break Gonzalez’s record if he can play three more seasons. You can debate taking a TE this high. But if you do take a GM this high, it will Barnidge’s production that he will be measured against.
1.11- HB- Matt Forte- 2735 attempts, 12120 yards, 4.43 average, 61 TD’s (Currently 10th overall in rushing yards)
Profile: At the time he taken 10th overall, I thought that there was nothing special about him. Now looking back, I’m still not quite sure what was so special about him but he has been a production machine. He currently ranks 10th all-time in rushing yards and 14th all-time in rushing TD’s. He has been the model of consistency rushing for 1000 yards in all 8 seasons in the league. He spent all but one year of his career with the Raiders before going across the bay to the 49ers in 2015. It will be interesting to see if any team picks him this offseason so he can continue his streak. I suspect not, but you never know.
1.21- QB-Matt Ryan- 1530 completions, 2965 attempts, 51.60 comp %, 23113 yards, 160 TD’s, 116 interceptions, 79.3 QB rating
Profile: At first I didn’t think Matt Ryan deserved any consideration as a value pick. In fact, I would have gone the other direction. But if you take an unbiased look at his production, it’s hard not to come away concluding he was more than worthy of the 21st overall selection. Ryan spent his first 6 seasons with the Packers, then 1 season in Indianapolis and now is currently with the Texans. He’s coming off a career year in Houston with 37 TD’s and a 112.6 QB rating. QB’s are hard to find and develop. When you select one, develop one, and he turns out to be pretty decent, you have a value pick.
1.28- MLB-Dan Connor- 835 tackles, 127 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 21 interceptions
Profile: Up next is a player who just racks up tackles. In fact, the last three seasons Connor has had 120 plus tackles. It’s a pretty amazing stat. He’s currently 19th all-time in tackles and 13th all-time in tackles for losses. He’s spent all 8 seasons with Cleveland where he has been the starter since his rookie campaign. Connor doesn’t have some of the elite physical attributes that other MLB’s have but he racks up the stats and based on those stats he is a huge value pick.
1.29- QB-John David Booty- 1512 completions, 2795 attempts, 54.10 comp %, 22071 yards, 155 TD’s, 114 interceptions, 81.6 QB rating
Profile: Another QB making this list is John David Booty drafted by the Bills with the 29th pick of the 1st round. Booty played the first three years in Buffalo where he was the starter from day 1. If you want to know the downside of starting a rookie QB, Booty is a great example. In his first season he had a 44.23 comp %, 39 interceptions, 50 sacks, and a 45.9 QB rating. Not every team has to endure this stat line but it is a definite possibility. After three seasons in Buffalo he was traded to Kansas City, but didn’t play there. He was then traded to the Rams which is where he has proved his value. He hasn’t been a stud QB, but he is a legit starter in this league at the premium position in Madden. That’s good value with 1.29.
2.3- LT-Branden Albert- 604 pancakes, 24 sacks
Profile: Brandon Albert is one of those longevity value picks. He was taken by the Falcons with the 3rd pick in round 2 and has been a really consistent players over his 8 year career. He spent his first two seasons with the Falcons before being before traded to the Buccaneers in 2010. He had his best season in the SFL in 2013 when he had 103 pancakes. The Bucs have had him available for trade this offseason, but wherever he goes he probably has another season or two in front of him. He’s currently 47th all-time in pancakes.
2.7- LT-Anthony Collins- 661 pancakes, 21 pancakes (Currently 24th all time in pancakes)
Profile: While Albert was good value because of his longevity, Anthony Collins is good value for his longevity and his standout production. Collins was taken four picks later than Albert at 2.7 and has outperformed him by 57 more pancakes during this time and 3 less sacks. Collins was a part of the Super Bowl champion Bears in 2011 and he’s been a cornerstone piece to the Bears offense. His pancakes are good enough for 24th all-time in the league and there’s probably still another season of tread on the tires. He was a great value at 2.7.
2.11- QB-Chad Henne- 1077 completions, 2025 attempts, 53.19 comp %, 17325 yards, 127 TD’s, 68 interceptions’s, 89.0 QB rating
Profile: A theme you might be seeing is starting QB’s reaching the value of their picks. Chad Henne is no different at pick 2.11. Something fascinating about selecting QB’s though is how long it often takes them to fulfill their value. If you did this exercise four years into Henne’s career you would say he’s a draft bust because he’d really done nothing in his first four seasons. But starting in 2012 Henne has been a legit starting QB and you have to think he has at least another 4 years left in him. All eight of his seasons have been with the team that drafted him, the Raiders. This offseason he was the recipient of the the fountain of youth award which has given him another year as a quality starter. It took a while but he has definitely been worth the 2nd round pick the Raiders spent on him.
2.21- LT-Oniel Cousins- 564 pancakes, 30 sacks
Profile: Oniel Cousins is yet another offensive linemen reaching his value here in this draft. He was taken at pick 21 by the Green Bay Packers. He hasn’t been an all-star or even elite at his position but his longevity puts him on this list. He played his first 7 seasons in Green Bay before being traded to the Super Bowl champion 49ers in 2015. I would say he has far outplayed his attributes though LT’s often do that. At the time of the draft, I would have said that this wasn’t a great pick. But his production over the course of his career has proved me wrong.
3.16- LG-Grant Debenedictis- 492 pancakes, 19 sacks
Profile: Debenedictis was taken with the 16th pick in the 3rd round by the Colts. And he’s had a sneaky good career for a guy taken in the 3rd round. His pancake numbers aren’t like the other value picks in this draft but LG’s don’t typically get the same numbers at LT do, so its not an apples to apples comparison. And even though, the Colts have been treating Benedictis this offseason a little like you treat the Bear card in the Pit card game, he has still been a really good player and more than met his value in this league.
3.28- QB-Andre Woodson- 941 completions, 1806 attempts, 52.10 comp %, 14093 yards, 94 TD’s, 78 interceptions, 77.4 QB rating
Profile: Andre Woodson is a fascinating case to follow. He was drafted late in the 3rd round by the Dallas Cowboys. He played in “Big D” for two seasons totally 22 pass attempts. He was then traded to the Jets for LG-Courtney Van Buren and a 5th round pick. The Jets promptly started him in 2010 and he put up a hideous 38.9 comp % though he did have 12 TD’s to 9 INT’s. After another full season of mediocrity, the Jets had enough and sent him to the pawn shop known as the Tennessee Titans for the Packers 1st round pick. The Titans took a literal 24 hours in the same season and then moved him to the Bills for a 3rd round pick (Please note there were probably other pieces here the site is not telling me here, otherwise the Titans lost the same amount of value as a new car does when you drive it off the lot). The Bills rolled with Woodson for two seasons and just as he was getting decent shipped him off to the Colts for a 2nd and 4th round pick. The Colts played him just enough to get him to a mentor status and then moved him this offseason for a 1st and a 2nd. Woodson should be a value pick just for the sake of all the trades he’s been a part of. His numbers are not great, but his value right now is pretty high. If he started out valued at a late 3rd and now brings back a 1st and 2nd he’s definitely a value pick.
4.1- WR-Jerome Simpson- 274 catches, 4563 yards, 16.65 average, 30 TD’s
Profile: We are at the point in the draft where being a solid contributor makes you a value pick. Jerome Simpson meets that requirement. He was taken by the Jets with the 1st pick in the 4th round, which by the way is a value pick in and of itself because it’s the first pick that could be the draft gem. Simpson has played all 8 seasons in New York. His sophomore campaign was his best one. He had 1251 yards receiving and 7 TD’s as a 2nd year player and that’s really impressive from a guy taken in the 4th round. I think the Jets got value out of this pick, though he is starting to regress.
4.9- DT-Glenn Dorsey- 222 tackles, 24 tackles for loss, 42 sacks
Profile: The final value pick in the 2008 draft is the former Chief current free agent DT Glenn Dorsey. The Chiefs snagged him with the 9th pick in round 4 and he was 7 year starter in Kansas City with his best year being in 2012 where he managed 10 sacks and 5 tackles for loss. DT’s are very hard to find in this league. For some reason, they also seem to be very expensive so Dorsey’s value is not only in his stats but in his low contact for the first 4 seasons due to his draft location. It looks like the Chiefs might be moving on from him now, but he was still well worth the pick in the 4th round.
