by Anthony Fernandez, October (Friday the) 13th, 2017
[1.1] 
QB Mitch Trubisky, University of North Carolina 
The Saints were fractions of a point in strength of schedule away from just owning this pick, but giving up [2.2] is not a bad tax to make sure you get your guy. 74 AWR as a 22 year old rookie is honestly kind of insane. It's kind of crazy that Mitch is going to be a legit franchise QB in SFL for a decade... but we are a game of numbers, not a game of on-field talent. And Mitch has the measurables to be great. Tune back in for SFL 2025 when Mike Glennon, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Nate Sudfeld, and Carson Wentz are breaking all your legendary QB records. If there is ONE flaw in Mitch, it's that INJ rating. Can you spend the 1st overall pick on a guy that gets hit for a living and has a 63 INJ rating? Unless someone offers Nate a legit Franchise QB, I think they have to.
[1.2] 
CB Marlon Humphrey, Alabama 
The move up to [1.2] for San Diego is a little puzzling to me, if it is in fact to draft there. As a value play? Totally get it. They are loaded UP with premium draft picks that they've been shopping, and I'm sure they've got nibbles... but clearly nothing they liked enough to pull the trigger on. But the 2nd overall pick? There is a legit shut down CB here and a potential star WR with rare size/speed combo. If the Chargers stay put, they won't be upset with either of those guys. It's difficult to say which way they'd go - but I'll lean on a conversation I had with Will very early on in my SFL tenure where he said he didn't really believe in drafting WRs this high, and how he prefers high OVR/AWR players and they do just fine. That said, since that conversation he's landed two really good Top 10 pick WRs that are thriving for him... so maybe his thinking on the matter has evolved... or maybe he wasn't telling me the truth. At CB, he seems to have went that way though... a couple high AWR studs who aren't quite vets yet. But in about two more seasons, they'll be ready to be traded or drop to the slot to mentor. So it would make sense to add a top flight CB now - but they'll need to add a cheap mentor. They could always send me a 4th for Maxey, or just try to nab one in FA. I don't have Private Workouts for any of these guys, so I don't know if Humphrey is going to be more work or less work to perfect... but even if he just stays the same, he's going to be a great pro. The 66 AWR with a mentor for two years means by the time Claiborne and Peterson are rounding 3rd base, he'll be over 80 AWR, and only 21 years old now he should have no problem getting to 90 AWR as a 6'1" 25 year old that is pushing 99/99/99 and has good hands. But don't be surprised if this pick gets traded. My guess would be for a pick lower in the Top 10, along with a future 1st round pick and a third unknown asset. Maybe another high pick, maybe a player. Lots of guys panic and need to make moves suddenly when the offseason hits. But the reality is there is still a LOT of time before the draft, and Will's super power is patience. He may make this pick, and he may not. But even if he doesn't, everyone in the league is going to think he's making this pick right up until he doesn't. If he stays put, another potential sleeper pick here... DE Miles Garrett? Loves Dungeons and Dragons, like Will and I. Beast player. BIGGER than Demarcus Lawrence, so a better fit for the 34 will wants to run. It's high, and there's a dropoff after him at the position. So would be a fun storyline. Could Will be worried he's a target for Oakland? Hmm.
[1.3] 
WR Mike Williams, Clemson 
Would the Chargers move to [1.2] to take Williams just to spite Brad, the division rival? Well that probably depends how good that private workout is. Brad clearly values big guys, check the Julio Jones receipts if you're unsure. But Williams, if the skew is right, has the potential to be a MUCH improved version of Julio in the Raiders offense. Playing with a vet on new legs like Henne? Williams would light it up. The Raiders already have two really good WRs they drafted in the 1st round recently, plus Tyreek in the slot who was a 2nd rounder... but Williams would offer something this offense currently lacks. The Raiders have other holes that need addressed (SS, HB, OL), but I'm a firm believer that when you're THIS high, you take the rare talent at CB and WR. The CB just went off the board. I think Oakland would love to drop down a few spots and go another direction, but if they stay put I think this is the best player.
[1.4] 
LE Miles Garrett, Texas A&M 
The Patriots have a very talented roster and and a Franchise QB, so I was surprised all last year about how poorly they performed. Thankfully, that year is behind them and the reward is now a Top 4 pick. That pick would have been even HIGHER if two of their only four wins didn't happen in Week's 16 and 17... but they don't need a QB, so who gives a shit. They are here, and I'm not convinced this player won't be sniped prior to [1.4], but Miles Garrett would be a very nice add for a roster that has no LEs on it. Miles has freak size and speed, and is only 21 years old. I'll never get him, but he's SO good I'm tempted to burn a PW just to get an advance screening of his greatness. I suspect he probably goes UP, and then with some AP could be a phenom. I love that the good buddies (Will, Briston, and Nate) are 3 of the first 4 picks in the draft. I wonder how much of Will jumping up was FOMO, and it'll be interesting to see who of the 3 gets bragging rights of the best player from this class.
[1.5] 
HB James Conner, Pitt 
So it should be noted that this is what I would do if I were Atlanta, not necessarily what I think they'll do. They have HB David Wilson, who I suppose has been serviceable. He's not an explosive runner, but he gets the job done and is only 27 years old. Connor, however, is a HUGE back at 250 pounds, so gives you some thunder to Wilson's lightning. Connor also has rare speed for a guy his size, to go with 80 STR and 88 BRK. The 66 INJ is a concern for a Top 5 pick, but he has the tools to be really special. Anytime you're making these high pressure picks I think it's important to think about your biggest division rival and ask yourself, "what would they want me NOT to do?" And I think if you asked Mr. (B) Mellon, the last MFer he wants to see in a Falcons jersey is James Connor.
[1.6] 
QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Just in case, you know, Erik Ainge suffers another elusive
season-ending three week injury. Is Watson the 2nd best QB in this class? I dunno, probably not... but this just
feels right. Like your upper thighs after a good massage. Once all that tension is released.
[1.7] SS Eddie Jackson, Alabama
There have been some rumblings that this pick might have been traded? Will told me THIS morning (10/13) that he was picking at [1.7], but then Breck made an ominous post that THEY moved down from [1.7]. I'm not sure if that means that the Colts, since breakfast, have acquired the 7th pick and then traded it already... and if it were anyone other than Breck/Apolo/Me I'd think, "no way." But alas, it's possible this pick will be wrong before it's even posted. As far as I know, the Chargers will be here, and they land a STUD in Jackson. It's honestly a pretty shitty SS draft (speaking as team who could use one), but Jackson is the gem. Will almost took Landon Collins a few years ago (or at least the media thought so), before he punted and let him slide to [1.8]. Will hit the draft gem that year and ended up with a stud anyway, but traded him to Tennessee (who sent him to Pittsburgh.) In this hypothetical though, the Chargers double down with Alabama defensive studs for the new and improved 34. Not a lot of guys like Jackson in the league. Whoever gets this guy will be happy.
UPDATE I can confirm this pick was moved to the Colts since breakfast, allegedly, and then moved to Miami. I'll leave the picks as is for now, but it's likely the Chargers are NOT targetting a Safety anymore based off a player they got in that deal.
[1.8] 
HB D'onta Foreman, Texas 
Ravens are a mysterious team to mock. I've seen WRs get mocked here, and it's possible, but their WRs are pretty good. HB Beanie Wells is a stud, but he's 29 this year, and if we're being honest his attributes don't lend encouragement for a guy who will last TOO long into regression. He's be too slow to start pretty quick. It might be a great time for the Ravens to hop on a HB, and while I'm sure they'd prefer Connor, Foreman is a big bodied banger as well. Unfortunately, he's not any more durable than Connor... always a gamble in the Top 10, but someone is going to get a very productive RB with Foreman.
[1.9] 
QB Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech 
Obviously the NFL equivalent of Patrick Mahomes looks better NOW, but Mahomes was far from a "sure thing" when he came out. This version will need some work - just being 6'2" is less than ideal, and 93 THP and 89 THA don't jump off the page, either. The 65 AWR is ok, and as long as Mahomes lands with a mentor (like the Giants acquired in Palmer), Mahomes will be just fine. He's more durable than the other guys, so that's a plus, but he's still not a slam dunk in that department either. He'll ride the bench most of his rookie season, but he will be a future All Pro (with work).
[1.10] 
WR Kenny Galladay, Northern Illinois 
Is that 3-time SFL Super Bowl Champion Bryan Mellon in the Top 10 in back-to-back years? Weird. Last year Mellon got a stud, and this year is no different. I'm sure Bryan is kicking himself for not taking THREE 1st round picks from that mystery team that offered on WR Taylor Price at the deadline last year, because now-30 and regressing (plus $5m annually), he'd have a hard time pulling a single 1st. But that's ok, the rich will get richer as Bryan will have Galladay studded out in a few years as a legitimate 6'4" speedster.
[1.11] 
LT Roderick Johnson, Florida State 
This is one of those picks that you don't overthink. Just take the best player, even on the hot seat. The Packers need a LT, and Johnson has 68 SPD, 77 AGI, 84 ACC, 80 PBK, 70 RBK, 97 STR, and a whopping
78. This guy is smarter than some offensive lineman starting in SFL today, and he's smarter than Eagles DE Frank Clark EVER will be. Just a plug and play guy, even if his pass and run block will need to be targeting with early progression. You probably won't be able to Training Camp him (over 79 OVR I bet), but he's going to be a Day 1 starter. Grab a mentor for him to passively keep boosting his AWR while you focus progression onto RBK/PBK. Stud.
[1.12] 
WR WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC 
Sounds like the Dolphins will actually be picking at [1.7] after all the dust settles, and maybe they try to go up even higher. Their post said "top 10 will do", so maybe they'll be set at 7. To me, that sounds like a team that is going to go
Best
Player
Available at ONE specific position. To make a proclamation like that, you'd probably need a position where you have... 4-5 guys you'd be comfortable taking. Sounds like a WR to me. With that in mind, I love JuJu as the guy for the Dolphins, especially at 7. In this iteration, I'd be a little worried that the Packers (or someone else) might snipe him, but I think JuJu could comfortably fall to 7th overall. Paired with recently added Chris Conley, you've got a killer 1-2 punch to continue Marcus Mariota's development. That does remind me that at some point this offseason, the Dolphins inquired about WR Latimer (like some other teams have), but Latimer is one of my few untradeable players. So WR is on the big board... but that might have been BEFORE they got Conley, and maybe they're happy at the position now? Should be a fun draft!
[1.13] 
WR Chris Godwin, Penn State 
So the Colts went from [1.13] up to [1.7], and then back down to [1.12] before lunch was over. I wonder who they liked enough to move up the 6 spots, but then felt good enough to drop back down 5... only in front of... Will? Does that mean their primary target might share some overlap with San Diego? Hmm. I'll leave these picks as is until confirmed and moved on site, but it'll be interesting to track if these teams actually even stay where they are. The Colts have been mocked WRs, and I can kind of see that. They
voluntarily share a list of 23 ranked prospects that led with five WRs. Of those five, Golladay and Williams are gone (and would be even if they were picking at 12, where they
supposedly currently are. My next intuition would be to see who is MISSING from the list that is worthy of a top 10 pick, but having no 1sts and refusing to pick in the top 10, I can't say I'm the best at scouting the top, top talent in a draft to make such a distinction. I think OL would be wise... but Breck has a ton of picks and those guys are usually around later in the 1st. There are a couple FREAK LBs, but this might be a tad early. I think Godwin is a little too cute of a pick here, and I don't think he's a guy that gave them the "urge" to hop up. My gut says they take the best OL they truly like, but Godwin is just 21 years old and would be a fantastic add to any team. Watch the Giants as a team that has plenty of 1st round ammo and might be a sleeper to get Godwin. Benn is about a bajillion dollars by this point, and they'll need to get their new Franchise QBs some weapons. As a Penn State fan, I'm sure Romeo would love to add one of
Sandusky's boys. But not if Breck gets him first.
[1.14] 
OT Cam Robinson, Alabama
The Jaguars only have four total offensive lineman ON THE TEAM. With nearly $40 million in cap space, this will surely be a VERY active team in Free Agency, and it's possible Olly will just want to BUY high overall veteran OL to block for Crab Legs Winston. But if they want a great young player to develop, that we already KNOW looks good in a Jaguars uniform... Cam Robinson is your guy.
[1.15] WR Josh Malone, Tennessee 
Disappointed to miss out on one of
Sandusky's boys (Chris Godwin), the Giants still continue the run on talented WRs. Malone is 6'3" with amazing hands, yet remains one of the quickest guys in the class. It's possible that his skew isn't great, and then this would be a reach, but if he stays the same or goes up a bit, he reminds me a lot of my WR Cody Latimer, who I've been extremely happy with. Mahomes (or Palmer, or whoever the next Franchise QB is) will need some weapons. The Giants have a TON of ammo though, and GM Romeo Mendez rarely settles for the 5th best of ANYTHING in the draft. They have had an impressive streak the last few years of landing blue chippers like HB Melvin Gordon, OLB Za'Darius Smith, and CB Jalen Ramsey - it would not surprise me at all to see them try to move up to get a Top 3 WR in this class instead of a Top 5 or 6 guy.
[1.16] 
DT Davon Godchaux, LSU 
This is a player that I think a lot of teams like, but probably all for different reasons. Being just 21 years old, he perfectly fits the mold of the type of player Apolo targets in these drafts... maximizing the window before regression. At 6'4" and 293 pounds, he's got great size. His 87 strength might scare some teams off... if they are looking at him as a DT. But Apolo probably loves him as a DE (like Knighton he just traded). Apolo has two amazing DEs already, including one that just got a new contract... so the move doesn't make a ton of sense from a NEED standpoint, but hard to argue that Davon isn't the most INTERESTING player left at this point. Apolo has a need at DT now, so he could start him off there and progress him (AP boosts, too) with the knowledge that eventually he could have some fun with him in a 34. You know Apolo will have a zillion Private Workouts and make sure this guy looks worthy of the pick on paper, and then run years of sims to see how he plays out. Frankly, it would tell me more about Davon if he is NOT the pick than it would if Apolo does make this the pick.
Thanks for reading! Hopefully picks 17-32 will post tomorrow.
