It's the time of year. The time to make AP to get through the long winter. Also, the time for SFL season predictions. I'm pretty bad at this, full disclosure, but here we go. I figured the Predictions are a nice way to get a few AP without taking 4 hours. And why WOULDN'T you want to know -my- opinion on it? The same guy who two years ago picked the 49ers to get LAST in the NFC West, and the Ravens to get 3rd in the AFC North!! They played in the 2015 Super Bowl. Last year I was a LITTLE better. I had the Titans (who eventually won the 2016 Super Bowl) in the AFC Championship... but my
actual Super Bowl pick was Bucs over Broncos... who both
missed the playoffs. Whoops. The moral of the story?
If I don't rank your team where you think you belong, please don't take it personal! Ok, AFC goes first, because alphabet.
AFC East
1.
New England Patriots
2.
New York Jets
3.
Miami Dolphins
4.
Buffalo Bills
It's
Derek Carr breakout season... right? We've been waiting for it. He looks the part. On paper, I probably like this team more than most, because it reminds me a lot of my Cowboys. Kinda raw in some spots, but overflowing with talent.
Briston did a great job drafting - maybe my favorite 2017 draft class. Even still, them winning the East would certainly be a surprise, as I think
Miami has the pedigree of previous domination, paired with the hot finish last year... but I just fear their secondary will be too young THIS year. Another year of
Daren developing Mariota and those CBs though, and watch out. The
Bills are under new management, but still have a lot of holes. I think
Wade is committed to the rebuild, and knows he's got some time with the contract. That leaves the
Jets... who probably will win the division... but I've got them just narrowly getting the Wild Card (and perhaps settling the score in the playoffs, ala the Cowboys-Redskins rivalry last year).
Kev is one of the best GMs our community has. But for now, initially - give me the Patriots to surprise and steal the AFC East.
AFC North
1.
Cleveland Browns
2.
Baltimore Ravens
3.
Pittsburgh Steelers
4.
Cincinnati Bengals
It feels like every team in this division is developing a young QB at the same time, which makes this one super tough to predict. You could give me ANY of these teams to win, and I'd believe you. The
Bengals are super talented and nearly won a Super Bowl last year... but is
Brady REALLY prepared to give up on developing Jared Goff? Sure, he could ride the bench and get another +5 AWR... but to go your first TWO seasons and get little to no playing progression seems like a very dangerous proposition. He'd be 77 AWR at 24 years old, which isn't bad... but we have QBs coming out of the draft now nearly at that (Mitch was 73 AWR). It wouldn't be the end of the world if the Bengals (who have a 5 year contract and have been actively unloading vets this offseason for future assets) finally decide to have a "rebuild" year to maximize what Goff CAN be. I kind of thought that would be LAST year, but with the Bengals not having their 1st round pick (division rival Steelers did), I'm not surprised they let Stanback destroy the SFL. Speaking of the
Steelers, I'm a big fan of GM
Cohen and how he's building the team. This is a team that also SHOULD be playing Sudfeld, especially since Andre Woodson is kind of meh. That said, this team played very well down the stretch last year and HAVE the players in place on defense to contend. Missing their future 1st (and on the Hot Seat), I think this is a team that will be trying to win. I think there are few teams with a more important schedule release than Pittsburgh... as if they have a tough opening schedule, perhaps this is a team that sees the value in just developing the QB instead of worrying about the pick (once they secure 6 wins). Especially if DeMarcus Lawrence is tearing it up. But if they get some layups to start, maybe they play Woodson the majority of the year and just try to sneak Sudfeld in for 4-6 games along the way. In my opinion, the two teams MOST prepared to win this division are
Ian and his
Browns... and
Norb and his
Ravens. SFL Jimmy G is far more reliable than NFL Jimmy G, and while he's clearly the young future QB MOST advanced at this moment in the North... I still think the Browns are going to let Brohm be great. And he IS great. He's proven he can stay healthy, and I think another AFC North Title is likely.
AFC South
1.
Tennessee Titans
2.
Indianapolis Colts
3.
Houston Texans
4.
Jacksonville Jaguars
My good buddy
Apolo and the reigning, defending, undisputed World Champion, Super Bowl Champion, Bruce Wayne Tournament Champion
Titans are back for the title reign, and they.... UPGRADED at QB. Dangerous. The SFL All-Stars did take a few losses on the talented roster this offseason, and are not as DEEP as they were to protect them from injury... but this team is still THE most talented team in SFL. And while I love
Breck and the
Colts roster and think they will be very good... to be the man, you've got to BEAT the man. So until I see it, I'm team Titans, baby. I do think the Colts will be right in the thick of this race, and could compete for the Wild Card with the Jets and Chiefs... but I was SHOCKED to see Wentz at 87 overall... and frankly, that's so close that I'm not sure Breck will be able to resist the temptation to play him a good portion of this year to maximize that progression WITH the mentor bonus. Then the Titans will have to watch out in 2018 when Bradford begins regressing.
Brandon's Texans and
Ole's Jaguars are both super talented, and I think one of these teams likely ends up with 8 or 9 wins... but ultimately this division is stacked. I gave the slight edge to the Texans, but I think one more year of developing Jameis will put the Jags back into the playoffs as soon as next year.
AFC West
1.
Oakland Raiders
2.
Kansas City Chiefs
3.
San Diego "Super" Chargers
4.
Denver Broncos
I had a lot of trouble with this division. When I started writing this article, I'll confess I really wanted to make this the
Will vs. Dallas Super Bowl year (like we almost got last year), but ultimately I just think the
Chargers will have an uphill battle in a stacked division. There IS no bad team in this division (hell,
Tom and his
Broncos are last in my forecast, but I had them as AFC Champions last year. Their roster got BETTER this offseason.) I just ultimately think this division will have every team at .500 or better, and with every team currently healthy, how do you see how
Brad and his
Raiders finished last year and NOT have them as the champs? Ultimately I really believe in the team that
Rodney is building with the
Chiefs, and I think THIS is the year they need to seal the deal in the playoffs before some of those veterans start taking hits.
AFC Playoff Seedings
1.
Tennessee Titans
2.
Cleveland Browns
3.
Oakland Raiders
4.
New England Patriots
5.
New York Jets
6.
Kansas City Chiefs
That's right... the old DOUBLE DIVISIONAL Wild Card Round. The Raiders and Patriots are division champs... but can they defend that in round 1? We will see. Titans are a slam dunk BYE team, and I like Brohm to light the league up this year in a division that might be starting 3 youngsters at QB by season end.
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NFC East
1.
Dallas Cowboys
2.
Washington Redskins
3.
New York Giants
4.
Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the golden rule of predictions. Never jinx yourself, or put too much pressure on yourself. But a wise man once asked me, "when do YOU need to prove it?" And he was right. And it's time. That comment flipped a switch, and it sparked the
Cowboys winning their final 4 games last year to carry that momentum into a playoff run that saw them eliminate the very talented Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings on the road. We hung in there... kind of... with the Seahawks, but for the 2nd year in a row, they ended our season. We were VERY aggressive this offseason, diverting from my typical strategy of the slow build through the draft that has seen us win 7.. then 8... then 9... then 10 (plus two bonus playoff games). This year, it's (11-5) or bust. And we want the NFC Championship and a shot at the defending Champions. And that starts with dominating the NFC East. Which will not be easy.
Romeo and his
Giants look VERY good. Palmer will give them a different look, and even though I'm sure they'll hope to be massaging Watson into the lineup... they're going to start with Palmer and if they have a chance to win the East, you might NOT see Watson this year. Giants only need 6 get off the Hot Seat after finishing last season with the league's worst record. If they struggle out of the gate, perhaps Romeo just battles to the 6 wins and then plays Watson the last month of the season... or some version of that script.
AC and his
Eagles avoided another year of berating and harassing Will for not giving him more love when Will predicted they'd be "good" this year. I usually suck up to my buddy AC and he trashes me anyway. So give me the Eagles finishing last and AC getting fired. Off to Carolina or Pittsburgh for you. As much as I want Gary to stay in Pittsburgh and finish his vision, is there a more funny fate for AC to have to tuck tail and move across state? JK, AC, just getting my jabs in before you sweep me. As for
Justin and
Washington, they are super talented. Still. I was surprised they sent Bradford off... not because it wasn't great value, but as someone who measures his success in Super Bowls (and that's it), it was startling that they didn't feel close enough to close the deal. Their veteran approach for sure altered how I have to approach building my team, and I took some big swings this offseason. I traded five 1st round picks to get better THIS year. They punted to get better over the next decade. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, but I still think they are 1B in the division and if they get some injury luck, could win a 2nd NFC East title in their 2nd attempt.
NFC North
1.
Green Bay Packers
2.
Minnesota Vikings
3.
Detroit Lions
4.
Chicago Bears
The
Bears are talented on paper, but their training staff could routinely end a season at any point for anything. So I'm preparing for them bottoming out in a tough division. The
Lions and
Justin are hungry for success, but they've been slowly dealing off pieces with the future in mind. That's good - but that also costs you a few games along the way. I think they'll be close to the Wild Card race, but just miss out.
Neal and his
Vikings made a few curious moves this offseason. I'm not completely sure what they're doing at RB, but I have such respect and reverence for the GM that I'm convinced it's going to work out great. As for the
Packers and my roommate
Gary, I think this is the Packers year. They looked great last year when completely healthy. This is a Hot Seat year, and I think the renewed passion and love for Green Bay after the SFL meetup will project him into a contract extension in the place where he was seemingly trying to get out of for years (and that was trying to get rid of him)... but it turns out now after it all, they are the perfect match. Go Cheeseheads!
NFC South
1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2.
New Orleans Saints
3.
Atlanta Falcons
4.
Carolina Panthers
The return of the King.
Bryan Mellon and his
Buccaneers were my Super Bowl pick last year, but an injury to QB Cousins derailed that. Even still, they kept it exciting down the stretch and almost made the playoffs anyway. This year, in Zeke's sophomore campaign, I see little standing in their way. I DO however think that
Nate and the
Saints, in a hot seat year, will surprise some folks. It's possible this is a team that gets to 6 wins and then plays Mitch, but I just have a gut feeling that this team will score a lot of points, and teams will have trouble scoring on them. And once you get into the tournament, it's a whole new year, and David Greene could return HOME and take his team on a run. Long shot, but certainly possible. The
Panthers have one of the toughest tasks in the league to stay employed. After
Phil won 10 games and still missed the playoffs on tiebreakers, they find themselves needing 9 wins to keep the job (or a QB injury). With a young Dak Prescot to develop, a QB injury ironically might be the best thing for this team. Run heavy with Eddie Lacy the first month of the season, then start going crazy pass settings praying for Stanton to go down. Then you can develop Dak, pay to make him not a scrambler, and stumble to 5 wins (or less) so that next year you keep the team and only need 6 to stay on until 2019. I know the
Falcons were a playoff team last year, and looked better against the Seahawks than I did, but this is a team that will HAVE to sweep Tampa to win the South. Last year they did. Can they do it again?
Garth hopes so.
NFC West
1.
St. Louis Rams
2.
Arizona Cardinals
3.
Seattle Seahawks
4.
San Francisco 49ers
This is probably the division that will get me the most eye rolls. Yes,
Peter and the
49ers look great. I will NOT be surprised if they are back in the Super Bowl this year, like the last time I predicted they'd finish last in the West. But the reality is that HISTORICALLY, the 49ers and
Seahawks winning this division are severe outliers. Both teams still have two of the best veterans in the league, and
Rock is one of the greatest GMs I've ever known... but I just feel it in my gut that this is the year that
Felipe and his
Rams break through. I think Mike Evans is going to shatter receiving records, and I think the
Cardinals will be hot on their heels.
Scott is not THAT far removed from being the class of the NFC, and had they not lost their starting QB last year, that could have been the case a year sooner. Like the AFC West, a very hotly contested division that could go any way... but give me the Rams winning, and the Cardinals stealing a Wild Card.
NFC Playoff Seedings
1.
Dallas Cowboys
2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.
St. Louis Rams
4.
Green Bay Packers
5.
Arizona Cardinals
6.
Washington Redskins
"Oh my God, he made HIMSELF the #1 seed? What a mark!?!" Yea, that's right. It might be surprising, and maybe it's coming off as way over confident, but look at my roster. Tell me on paper where the holes are? Injuries happen, and that's what I'm scared of... but I really like our chances. The goal is 11-12 regular season wins, and an NFC Championship. Would be interesting with this team spread though, as the Redskins are a very dangerous 6 seed... and if they upset the Rams, it would setup a NFC East Champion rematch similar to LAST offseason that would surely vault the Cowboys-Redskins rivalry (which is ALREADY the greatest SFL rivalry) into the stratosphere. The Bucs have a great regular season, but no matter how hard Bryan tries NOT to, he still gets the BYE week. The kiss of death. Will they survive? Tune in tomorrow to see my playoff predictions. Until then, here are how I see the awards playing out.
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Award Winners
SFL MVP QB Mike Glennon
OPOTY WR Mike Evans
DPOTY FS Sabby Piscitelli
OROTY WR Chris Godwin
DROTY SS Justin Evans
