Welcome to the anual playoffs picture, often this article is done at week 17 after running some simulations in file, but i have some free time tonight and have been looking at playoffs race, so doing it now at week 16 and updating at week 17 with the file sims.
Tie breakers will be only include at the update of week 17 but i'll add a comment of the posible scenarios and tie breakers i see happening. Also will try something different and include a % of likelihood, please just take it as a fun number and it's posible doesn't even match 100% after all.
For starters, i'll list here all the games from both weeks that have playoffs relevance, and will include the % i'm giving to each team of win the game. Any injury or depth change could drastically change this, but let's do it. The games at bold, are games that involves 2 teams at playoffs race.
Week 16
Chargers 40% at Titans 60%
Buccs 85% at Saints 15 %
Bills 20 % at Falcons 80%
Broncos 50% at Eagles 50%
Texans 70% at Dolphins 30%
Panthers 75% at Giants 25%
Raiders 60% at Browns 40%
Jaguars 25% at Patriots 75 %
Chiefs 20% at Bengals 80%
Ravens 45% at Steelers 55%
Rams 80 % at Cardinals 20%
Lions 50 % at 49ers 50 %
Jets 30 % at Colts 70%
Cowboys 70 % at Redskins 30%
Vikings 60 % at Bears 40%
Week 17
49ers 60% at Rams 40 %
Giants 30 % at Vikings 70 %
Steelers 75 % at Dolphins 25%
Patriots 55 % at Texans 45%
Falcons 35% at Buccs 65 %
Saints 20% at Panthers 80 %
Bengals 85% at Jets 15 %
Eagles 30 % at Cowboys 70%
Colts 75 % at Bills 25 %
Bears 50% at Lions 50%
Redskins 35% at Chargers 65%
Ravens 40 % at Raiders 60%
Chiefs 20% at Broncos 80%
Titans 75% at Seahawks 25%
AFC Playoffs race ( In order based on site)
For week 16 the % are very relative, some teams could get the same result by a lot of different results so many will say just TBD and to be update. Going to comment the most likely scenario
Indianapolis Colts 11 - 3
Jets 30 % at Colts 70%
Colts 75 % at Bills 25 %
Playoffs: 100% (Clinched)
Division Title: 100% (Clinched)
Bye Week 100% (Clinched)
Home field advantadge: 98 %
Comment: Colts have clinched AFC South, and bye week. Only Chargers could knock them out of seed #1, that requires Colts losing out and Chargers winning out, based on games % that only happens at 2% of chances. So Colts have 98% chances of end as AFC Seed #1
San Diego Chargers 9 - 5
Chargers 40% at Titans 60%
Redskins 35% at Chargers 65%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: On race (% TBD)
Home Field Advantadge: 2 %
Comment: The Chargers are in a good but dangerous position, they have dropped important games and could dramatically miss playoffs, i gave them a 40% win and 65% win at their both games. They could win division at week 16 with a win over Titans and a Raiders lose (16% chances) Raiders have the tie breaker on division so Chargers could also join week 17 at Wildcard spot if lose vs Titans and Raiders win (36% chances). At the distance should also pay atention to Bengals a team could get a tie breaker over them cause direct result. A win vs Titans at week 16 basically clinch playoffs for Chargers, as would have 10 wins and tie breaker over Titans that could only get 10 wins in the scenario Raiders also get 10, Chargers would have a good position for tie breakers. The critical week for Chargers is week 16 if lose, could depend of results at week 17, and miss playoffs even with 10-6 record.
Baltimore Ravens 8 - 6
Ravens 45% at Steelers 55%
Ravens 40 % at Raiders 60%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: On race (% TBD)
Home Field Advantadge: 0 %
Comment: Ravens control their destiny, winning their next 2 games, they clinch division and playoffs, with chances of bye week (Depending of AFC West). I gives them 18% of chances of winning their final 2 games. Ravens face directly 2 teams on the playoffs race, first the critical division game vs Steelers, that would make them enter week 17 as division leaders, the could even win division with a win + a Bengals lose (9% chances). Even if they win vs Steelers, they face a complicated situation at 9-6 would lead their division and Steelers couldn't catch them, but Bengals could, and Cinci has a relative easy schedule. Ravens would be playing Oakland Raiders, and if lose that game basically out of playoffs. The other route is that at 9-7 if they lose vs Steelers but beat Oakland, would have tie breaker over them. Anyway i don't predict Ravens being a wildcard team, their best shot is winning division. So week 16 vs Steelers is critical.
New England Patriots 7 - 7
Jaguars 25% at Patriots 75 %
Patriots 55 % at Texans 45%
Playoffs: 99 % +
Division Title: 99% +
Bye Week: 1% -
Home Field Advantadge: 0 %
Commentary The Patriots have done what they have to do, is not their fault AFC East this season will be on the history books as one of the weakest divisions ever. The only combination of results that let Patriots out of playoffs is they losing out and Dolphins winning out, i gave less that 1% to those events to happen. Dreaming a lot they could wait for Chargers, losing out, Raiders losing out, and somehow in a triple tie at 9-7 with AFC West and AFC North to get the bye week, that's not happening. I think Pats will be the #4 seed and have potential to be #3 with a lot of combinations.
Tennessee Titans 9 - 5
Chargers 40% at Titans 60%
Titans 75% at Seahawks 25%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: 0%
Bye Week: 0%
Home Field Advantadge: 0 %
Commentary I'll break the 4th dimention here, many know i avoid talking about my team, and specially if the comment is good, but a team ranks top 10 in all categories, having the best defensive season from an statitical aspect, shouldn't be doing maths at this stage. But that's the scenario, division is out of range for Titans and the best scenario is grabbing #5 seed. The situation is complicated, very similar to what said about Chargers, in a moment where doesn't depends on other results but 1 lose could mean missing playoffs. The best scenario is beating Chargers and that would pretty much clinch a playoffs spot (Depending other results maybe tie breakers comes into discussion) for miss playoffs with 10-6 record would require Bengals and Raiders to win out, that's why if that happens having tie breaker over Chargers is important, also the conference record. The math for Titans is a bit hard to complicate for this week as includes tie breakers, some that could be multiple. 1 win + 1 lose of Bengals or Raiders over the last games clinch mathematically. Losing both games would send Titans to watch playoffs from couch almost guarantee
Pittsburgh Steelers 8 - 6
Ravens 45% at Steelers 55%
Steelers 75 % at Dolphins 25%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: On race (% TBD)
Home Field Advantadge: 0%
Commentary: Steelers control their destiny, 2 wins and they clinch division with some chances of a bye week but very minimal. I gives them 41% of winning out and takes the AFC North, their most important game is this week vs Ravens, if they win at week 16, go to Miami at week 17 with the division in their hands. If they lose vs Baltimore their scenario complicates a lot, would need to win to be 9-7 and then wait for results and tie breakers, Loses from Bengals, Raiders and Titans helps them as security blanket in case they lose. Losing vs Ravens takes them out of race for division and would make them focus at wildcard, i'm expection 10-6 to be the cut for wildcard, so they need to focus in win out.
Oakland Raiders 8- 6
Raiders 60% at Browns 40%
Ravens 40 % at Raiders 60%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: On race (% TBD)
Home Field Advantadge: 0%
Commentary : The injuries have hit Raiders that missed QB Henne and likely won't be back till week 17, so week 16 have Raiders facing a critical game with Stafford, luckily for them the game is vs a rookie QB. The posibilities of raiders are too many for mention, they could win division with 2 wins + 1 Chargers lose or with 1 win + 2 Chargers loses, their tie breaker difference within division helps them there. They also could try and get the bye week with 10-6 record, and depending tie breaker with AFC North champion. I'm almost certain they depend on themselves, but can't guarantee it, because even if win out, could be on an scenario with Chargers 11-5, Titans 10-6, Bengals 10-6 and Raiders at 10-6 based on my experience i think Oakland would get that tie breaker. So i think thier goal should be win next 2, and they should be in an excellent position, now if lose a game, will have a lot of depending factors, is still posible they make playoffs even with 9-7 record specially as said their tie breakers seems to be favorable, but that will be playing with fortune.
Cincinati Bengals 8-6
Chiefs 20% at Bengals 80%
Bengals 85% at Jets 15 %
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: On race (% TBD)
Home Field Advantadge: 0%
The Bengals have a very favorable schedule for finish the season, and many of their direct rivals play between each other, so that really helps the Bengals cause. They sit at #8 spot, but that same reason gives them the chance to jump up. I give them 68% chances of winning out, they can't do more than that, and they can only hope is enough, i don't like Bengals on tie breakers as they have bad division record and conference.The best case scenario for them is that the winner of Steelers vs Ravens lose at week 17, that will give them the AFC North, if they think at Wildcard, 1 lose from Raiders, 1 or 2 loses for Titans or Chargers would also gives them the spot. They're not in a position where only depends on themselves, but the results they need could easily happen.
Houston Texans 7 - 7
Texans 70% at Dolphins 30%
Patriots 55 % at Texans 45%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: 0%
Bye Week: 0%
Home Field Advantadge: 0 %
Commetary: The Texans suffered the injury of QB Matt Ryan and yet managed to be competitive, so they already gained the respect from league, sadly at 7-7 their mission of playoffs depends on them winning out 31% and then a lot of results and wait for tie breakers, they have a nice divisional record of 4-2 (I'm a believer that divisional record helps to win tie breakers that involves many teams) but they also require the teams above to start dropping games, Titans losing both games, and Raiders + Bengals losing out would guarantee playoffs for them, maybe even if Raiders and Bengals lose just 1, The % are remote but still there for anyone with faith.
Denver Broncos 7 - 7
Broncos 50% at Eagles 50%
Chiefs 20% at Broncos 80%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division Title: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: On race (% TBD)
Home Field Advantadge: 0%
Commentary The analysis for Broncos is insane, somehow they still have chances of winning division and even having a bye week if all the favorable tie breakers happens, for that the should win out, 40% of doing it and then wait for a lot and i mean a lot of results. But they're not targetting the division, they're targetting the wildcard, is a very similar situation to the one with Texans with the difference i don't like their tie breakers, Broncos can only do their part, win and wait, i would gives them a 1% chances, but if destiny lines up with them could make playoffs at 9-7
Miami Dolphins 6- 8
Texans 70% at Dolphins 30%
Steelers 75 % at Dolphins 25%
Playoffs: 1% -
Division Title: 1% -
Bye Week: 0%
Home Field Advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: They need a miracle, but could happen, first they need to win out and Patriots to lose out, looking at it from the % i gave is extremely unprobable but at the end i made those numbers, and it's only 4 results, as crazy as sounds could win division with 8-8 record, i don't see the scenario happening but could. With a whole miracle of tie breakers and results mathematically still at wildcard race, but seems almost imposible. Now the key for them is the division and only requires 4 results in total, less than some teams listed above
Tomorrow or Saturday, releasing NFC
|
