Welcome to the anual playoffs picture, often this article is done at week 17 after running some simulations in file, but i have some free time tonight and have been looking at playoffs race, so doing it now at week 16 and updating at week 17 with the file sims.
Tie breakers will be only include at the update of week 17 but i'll add a comment of the posible scenarios and tie breakers i see happening. Also will try something different and include a % of likelihood, please just take it as a fun number and it's posible doesn't even match 100% after all.
For starters, i'll list here all the games from both weeks that have playoffs relevance, and will include the % i'm giving to each team of win the game. Any injury or depth change could drastically change this, but let's do it. The games at bold, are games that involves 2 teams at playoffs race.
Week 16
Chargers 40% at Titans 60%
Buccs 85% at Saints 15 %
Bills 20 % at Falcons 80%
Broncos 50% at Eagles 50%
Texans 70% at Dolphins 30%
Panthers 75% at Giants 25%
Raiders 60% at Browns 40%
Jaguars 25% at Patriots 75 %
Chiefs 20% at Bengals 80%
Ravens 45% at Steelers 55%
Rams 80 % at Cardinals 20%
Lions 50 % at 49ers 50 %
Jets 30 % at Colts 70%
Cowboys 70 % at Redskins 30%
Vikings 60 % at Bears 40%
Week 17
49ers 60% at Rams 40 %
Giants 30 % at Vikings 70 %
Steelers 75 % at Dolphins 25%
Patriots 55 % at Texans 45%
Falcons 35% at Buccs 65 %
Saints 20% at Panthers 80 %
Bengals 85% at Jets 15 %
Eagles 30 % at Cowboys 70%
Colts 75 % at Bills 25 %
Bears 25% at Lions 75%
Redskins 35% at Chargers 65%
Ravens 40 % at Raiders 60%
Chiefs 20% at Broncos 80%
Titans 75% at Seahawks 25%
NFC Playoffs race ( In order based on site)
For week 16 the % are very relative, some teams could get the same result by a lot of different results so many will say just TBD and to be update. Going to comment the most likely scenario
Dallas Cowboys 14 - 0
Eagles 30 % at Cowboys 70%
Cowboys 70 % at Redskins 30%
Playoffs: 100% (Clinched)
Division Title: 100% (Clinched)
Bye Week 100% (Clinched)
Home field advantadge: 100% (Clinched)
16-0 Season: 49%
Commentary: Cowboys have been perfect and breaking record, they're 2 games away from the perfect regular season. They might or might not be resting starters for the final 2 games, whatever happens, Dallas has written their name at history books. I'm giving them a 49% chances of finish with 16-0 record, if Glennon plays. Good luck to Mr. Champa and America team, woud be really happy if my good friend gets the perfect season.
Detroit Lions 10 - 4
Lions 50 % at 49ers 50 %
Bears 25% at Lions 75%
Playoffs: 100% (Clinched)
Division Title: 100% (Clinched)
Bye Week On race (% TBD)
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: Detroit Lions have won their division for the first time ever, congratulations to them, the team have been doing the right moves and they got the reward, congrats Justin. Lions are in a direct fight with Buccs, Panthers and 49ers for the #2 seed and the bye week, they play 49ers at week 16, giving it an even 50% chances. Lions have the best conference record between those 3 teams so i believe in any tie they have tie breaker on their side, except if the tie is direct with 49ers and lose at week 16 which is unlikely. That tie breaker could dissapear if there's a triple tie between AFC South Champ and NFC West Champ. Example, 3 teams at 10-6. Right now, Detroit control their destiny and depends on themselves to get seed #2, if they beat 49ers and Buccs lose vs Saints, they could virtually clinch bye week at week 16.
San Francisco 49ers 9 - 5
Lions 50 % at 49ers 50 %
49ers 60% at Rams 40 %
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: 84 %
Bye Week On race (% TBD)
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary 49ers control their destiny, a win vs Lions or Rams, clinch them the division, also a lose of Rams vs Cardinals. The combination of 49ers losing out and Rams winning out is the only scenario where they lose division. So i'm giving SF 84 % chances of win NFC West. They're also on the race for bye week (Seed #2) for get it, need to win their both games, or win the game vs Detroit at week 16 and wait for other results. If lose game vs Detroit, they'll be out of race for get the bye week. If 49ers lose the division with Rams, they'll be 9-7 and depends on Carolina and Minnesota to at least lose 1 game, if there's multiple teams tied at 9-7 i think 49ers have favorable tie breakers, but will be Madden dependant. The scenario where 49ers miss playoffs is remote.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – 5
Buccs 85% at Saints 15 %
Falcons 35% at Buccs 65 %
Playoffs: 95% +
Division: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week On race (% TBD)
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary : Buccaneers depends on themselves for win division, 2 wins guarantee it, 1 win + 1 Panthers lose also do it, but if Buccs lose 1 game and Panthers win their 2 games, Carolina will win the division. Also could lose division vs Falcons. In any scenario with tied record within division Buccs lose the tie breaker, so they need to ensure to end in a better position record wise, they're in the race for bye week, but need to win out + winner of 49ers vs Lions to lose their week 17 game. My projected tie breakers for Buccs are bad, if they lose out i would say they'll miss playoffs. They clinch playoffs with a win at week 16 or week 17 without depends of other results. I gives them at least 95% chances of make playoffs
Carolina Panthers 8 - 6
Panthers 75% at Giants 25%
Saints 20% at Panthers 80 %
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: On race (% TBD)
Bye Week: 0.1 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary The Panthers depends on themselves, they win out they clinch playoffs, if add a buccs lose they clinch division. Ending 9-7 would send them to a tie breaker war with too many posible 9-7 teams, i'm not sure what would happen, but they could be benefited if teams on that race lose 1 game. Many tie breakers on that group are similar so seems to be a week 17 thing to know. I gives them 60% chances of win out, so that's the minimun % of playoffs, that increase with other results. They could in theory end with 10-6 record but i don't think they have tie breaker over 49ers and Lions, so giving them a 0.1% chances of bye week.
Minnesota Vikings 8 – 6
Vikings 60 % at Bears 40%
Giants 30 % at Vikings 70 %
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: 0 %
Bye Week: 0 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: Vikings also depends on themselves, if they win out they're in playoffs, i gives them 42% of win out. But if they lose 1 game they'll be on problems, i don't like their tie breakers at all, both divisional record and conference record are low. If they end 9-7 i think they won't make playoffs, as said above, there's too many teams could end 9-7 leaving the tie breakers to be a topic at week 17 update but at quickly looking at it and based on my experience, Vikings should target for the 2 wins, so they don't depend at other results
St. Louis Rams 7 – 7
Rams 80 % at Cardinals 20%
49ers 60% at Rams 40 %
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: 16 %
Bye Week: 0 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: The Rams have 1 clear way to playoffs, and then multiple options. The best case scenario for them is 49ers to lose vs Lions and they beating Cardinals, so would reach week 17 depending on themselves. I gives them a 32% of winning out and improving their record to 9-7, 16% of winning division. If they get to 9-7 but 49ers beat Lions, they'll be on wildcard discussion but would need that Vikings or Panthers at least lose 1 game. Too many potential ties at 9-7 to be discuss now, but at first glance i like Rams tie breakers.
Atlanta Falcons 7 – 7
Bills 20 % at Falcons 80%
Falcons 35% at Buccs 65 %
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: 1%-
Bye Week: 0 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: The Falcons still could win division if they win out (28% chances) and Saints win out vs Buccs and Panthers, my % of those 4 results happening is less than 1% but is still posible. Falcons should focus at winning out, get to 9-7 and wait for results to happen. At least need Panthers and Vikings losing 1 and then to wait on tie breakers. If they win vs Bills, they'll likely stay mathematically alive for final week, and there i'll update with more specific scenarios.
Philadelphias Eagles 7 – 7
Broncos 50% at Eagles 50%
Eagles 30 % at Cowboys 70%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: 0%
Bye Week: 0 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: Having a 14-0 team on division, means that many weeks ago the division title chances went away, but eagles remain on the wildcard race, the only thing they can do is to win out 15% chances (This is dependant of what Cowboys align at week 17). and wait for results – tie breakers. Something positive for them is the 4-2 div and 7-5 conference could help them, and at least guarantee tie breaker over Redskins
Washington Redskins 7 – 7
Cowboys 70 % at Redskins 30%
Redskins 35% at Chargers 65%
Playoffs: On race (% TBD)
Division: 0%
Bye Week: 0 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: Is almost the identical situation as Eagles, need to win out and wait, i do like their tie breakers less than Eagles one, so have it a bit more complicated. I gives them a 10% of winning their final 2 games, so considering they need to wait a lot of results, would place them at 1% or less to make playoffs, yet they're mathematically alive.
New York Giants 6 – 8
Panthers 75% at Giants 25%
Giants 30 % at Vikings 70 %
Playoffs: 0.1 %
Division: 0%
Bye Week: 0 %
Home field advantadge: 0 %
Commentary: I'm only placing them here cause in theory have mathematical chances of make playoffs, they have both current wildcard on the schedule so they need to win out, vikings and panthers to lose their other game, Rams to lose out, Falcons to lose 1 game, Eagles and Redskins to lose out, and Giants would win a tie breaker at 8-8 vs Panthers, Vikings or Falcons if needed.
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