Welcome to my pre-draft chronicles, i'm not used to write articles previous draft, often i focus at the Superman vs Bizarro series of articles, but i have some free time and feel like writting so lets see what we found out, this is too early on the draft and depending how times goes i might or might not write an update before the draft, also consider i don't like doing a mock, first are really hard to do (Huge respect to those that do it) second i feel like betraying myself if reveal the order of my board, but i'll try to offer some comments on the players, not entirely sure how this article will go, as just opening a word document and writing but let's see.
Positions analysis
Quarterback
The quarterback class this season has a main attribute, most of the best or draftables quarterbacks are young, that increase the life time of their career and get an easy learning / progression curve, now the truth is that there isn't a single elite very progressed quarterback on the class, i think many of them could become league starters and reach the 99-99 before turning 30 yo. Most of them depends on having a mentor available and that could be a key decision when draft them, if someone drafts one of the rookie quarterbacks and start them during all season, could get a lot of progression but also guarantee a top 5 pick on the next draft, will be really hard to win with a 60's awr QB. A lot of strategy will come into this position, i see the chance of many of them being drafted at 1st round, but much will depends in how high the #1 prospect is draft, that being in my opinion Sam Darnold, Nos that just said a name let's give a quick recap to the names on the list.
#1 Sam Darnold: I think this will be the unanimous #1 pick for QB, he's 20 yo, the only other quarterback i remember with that age was Blaine Gabbert, and trust me many times i was trying to trade for him and develop him, cause i think the learning curve will be easier, while Darnond isn't as goos as other years quarterbacks, think at Derek Carr or Mitchell Trubisky, he still has a cannon arm with 99 thp, high 85 tha and somehow decent, but not elite awr of 60 awr. The best attribute is his age, and unless a PW is very negative for him, or very positive for someone else, he should be the first QB off the board
#2 Josh Allen: The name will be a big factor here, i had my doubts placing him at this spot cause he has the risk of becoming an scrambler, and to spend 100k AP is a big investment, specially considering there's similar options that might have few less points but won't cost 100k AP. 99 thp – 61 awr – 80 tha, he has 1 more awr than Darnold and 5 less THA. He's also young at only 21 yo, anyone that is determined to progress him will be able to do it without problems. He's also a big body, im not sure if that helps at position, but hey a very tall QB just won MVP so maybe the height is important at position.
#3 Josh Rosen: He's the quarterback i was thinking at when above said, sacrificing some points could get a very similar player as Allen but without the risk of being scrambler. Same age, same THP, -1 awr and -3 tha. If Allen is scrambler i would take Rosen before him. But with the name factor i think this will stay at #3.
Rest of qurterbacks: I won't spend a lot of time at just 1 position, there's a lot of semi decent projects, with the right investment, and right progression, the key to progress a player is to be compromised to do it, personally unless a positive skew, i don't think any of the non listed QB, worth a 1st round pick, i could see Mike White with high THA and low AWR becoming a target, Lamar THP and scrambler takes him off equation.
Runningback
Runningbacks being drafted at the first round is becoming more a trend, as we're seeing better prospects, the position traditionally tend to be underrated and many teams can fill it with a lower round player, on this draft i see 1 player that is a top prospect on the draft and that should be draft high on the board, he's in another league compared to the other runningbacks, that player bein Nick Chubb. Let's see a quick recap.
#1 Nick Chubb: A complete stud, he's extremely progressed with 91 carry and 94 btk, and a not great but decent 58 awr. He has an excellent body size being a short tank, with 5"10 and 240, the fast comparisson i'll do here is CJ Ham, but more polished. He's also 86 str, and could end being the strongest player at the position with the right skew, the 22 yo is not bad or good, is a good age for a rookie, the 2 negative aspects are his agility and acceleration, that could skew up or down, but even if goes down i don't think that affects him, the man is a stud, and whoever walks away with him has great % chances of winning OROY.
#2 Philip Lindsay:He's very tricky and will be at the shadow of Chubb but he's actually a very good player, he has excellent carry 84 and 89 btk for a rookie, he's also very fast with agility and acceleration, elite hand at 72 and he's not a weakling as have 72 str. He isn't as appealing as Nick, but he could be a very productive runningback, somehow i have the idea people tend to avoid veyr fast runningbacks as could outspeeds OL, but OL position all around the league is becoming more athletic, and if Lindsay gets draft by the right team he could become a machine of long TD. He's small at 5"8 and 190, his weight is not back considering he's short but he won't be a wrecking ball, the position depends a lot of animations, and if he has the right ones could become a pro-bowler
#Rest of runninbacks: Maybe in a future update i consider adding another player to the list, but for now i don't consider it necesary, i see a lot of players that could be interesting, or to have a great upside as HB #2, personally i wouldn't draft any of them at 1st round, and much of the success they can have depends on the scheme and what they're asked to, when judging players i think it's only fair to do it based on expectations, investment required to draft him and how much of the carries will have. Most of the runningbacks (The draftable ones) have at least 1 big red flag, think at HB Saquon Barkley with his 74 acc, personally i don't like him, but someone will take a shot at him, and he might or might not work, but is a good bet if drafted in a mid round. Something to consider on the group is that is very raw, i struggle to see them more than HB #2 at most teams..
Fullback
I put my hand at fire and guarantee Nick Bowden is the best Fullback of the class
Wide Receiver
This is one of the favorite positions for the league, a wide receiver is often projected at 1.1 and this year won't be the exception. Specially as the team on the clock needs 1, the formula is very simple, if there's a tall WR that is 99 speed, inmediately becomes eligible for being mock for the top pick, or at least top 3, by sacrificing some height maybe can get similar WR later or even if take a very short WR can get that kind of speed for very low, historically this is a premium position and will remain that way for a long time. About this draft, i think there's some top targets, then a huge jump into projects, overall i feel the group is a bit raw and strugge too see most of them being fully progressed or anything close. Also the age of most of them is not the best, multiple at 22 and some older that makes complicated to draft. I think is an strong group at top and then a weak one, full of projects.
#1 DJ Chark: No one will question him, is the best WR of the class and might go 1.1, but if he don't i doubt that he drops more than top 3 and max top 5. He's 6"4 with 99 spd, very good agi and acc that will progress, somehow progressed at 64 awr and 87 catch, i don't think he requires a big analysis or that i can say something worth the read.
#2 Courtland Sutton: The pick is questionable and depends on a favorable skew, or at least not a negative one, i place him at this spot not only cause he's also 6"4 as DJ Chark, but because he's 1 year younger, and have similar progressable attributes, his speed, agi and acc could go up or down, so he depends a lot on the PW. Small trick during draft, most teams looking for a WR will do the PW, and if see that he drops is very posible that he skews down, consider the worst and draft him blind that way save a PW. At his worst he's 92 speed, of course that isn't top 10 quality but he isn't dropping out of top 10 with a positive or even neutral PW. Sutton is also an excellent choice for those GM that have the needed AP for buy +2 spd, with some luck and some love investment he'll be on the same league as DJ Chark.
#3 Trequan Smith: For this pick i'm choosing based on what i know leagues like, i'm a firm believer that strenght has a minimun impact at performance of the receiver, give me a 30 str, and i'll be happy, but i've noticed some like it, so Smith carry a bonus cause he's strong, with potential to be 99 spd, tall enough with 6"2, he could very well be considered the #2 WR but as said, i like Sutton a little bit more. His awr and catch are not horrible but far from good, he's raw.
#4 J'Mon Moore: I have the feeling that he's higher in other boards but not on mine, it's not the low agility, is just that i think he's raw, just as Trequan, but chose Trequan for the str and agility, and some catch, the 2 speed pre-skew guarantee that with 75k AP he'll be 99 spd, and probably won't be needed to do the investment, that's the worst case scenario, as said i think he's higher at other boards and could seeing him being #2 WR if Sutton skews down.
#Rest of wide receivers: There's a lot of players here, Michael Gallup leads the group but i don't want to expend more time at the position, the general idea is that from here more of the players are skew dependant, are raw and many of them have a big red flag, can be agility, acceleration, age, or speed, that one being the worst of all. Someone will find an stud from here, maybe cause PW, or just cause were lucky, every draft there's a player that after rating reveals, many GM myseld included, say: How did we miss him, and that's what the draft is about.
Tight End
The group has 2 very good players, and then takes a cliff in ammount of talent, the position tend to be weird of predict and performance hard to track, most times is a position that depends on which PB the team is using and that receive game volume, Buccs just won OROY with Kittle with an impressive season, but if track the history the position offer no guarantees, that said i'm not sure how high or how much the players fall but let's see them.
#1 Mark Andrews: He might be the best receiving tight end at league history, up there with George Kittle, of course it depends on the skew, remeber that speed can go + and – 5 on speed, he could end being way better or just good, but with 6"5 – 92 spd and 21 yo, he's for sure one of the most intriguing prospects. He's also strong with 78 str, and have excellent hands with 86 catch. His awr could be better as only have 58, and his agility at 81. None of those affect overall the kind of player he could be, the biggest red flag are his block skills, 47 pbk and 39 rbk, as he's strong he compensate that so i wouldn't worry much unless a very focus at run team. I think he goes top 10 unless PW says otherwise, despite position is not common to go high he's a top prospect.
#2 Dallas Goedert: He's the Walmart version of Andrews, but remember the speed skew could change everything and he could end up being the best one. He also comes with premium acc at 94. His agility of 74 is a factor to consider, also he has -20 str in comparisson with Andrews, and his block skills are slightly better, The 1 yo also plays a role when comparing both, Goedert won't grab as many spotlights as Andrews, but the potential is there and wouldn't surprise if he goes high at draft
Rest of tight ends: They're not bad but definetily shouldn't go at 1st round, and all of them depends on a good skew, just as the top 2, the class is not good for teams looking blocking tight ends, it feels like most of them could be more succesful receiving passes. Atkins is 26 yo and he can't be mentor, just a fun fact, hurst is also very old at 25 yo. They are the kind of players will be rookie contract with team drafted them and then hit FA, i would bet none of them being re-sign in 4 years. + and – 5 will make someone finds a steal on a mid late round, happens very often with TE.
Offensive linemen is a position that requires a deeper analysis specially as there's too many fillers with no potential other than fill rosters, so want to offer a better analysis than just that, so keep tune for the next episode when i'll talk about OL and some defensive positions.
Thanks for reading and feel free to comment your thoughts
|
