by Anthony Fernandez, February 5th, 2018
[1.1] 
WR D.J. Chark Jr., LSU 
========> 22 years old | 6’4” | 198 lbs | 64 AWR | 99 SPD | 98 AGI | 96 ACC | 87 CTH
This is what you call
consensus, as the entire league seems to be locked in with the Saints taking Chark. I'll say that I am in no way 100% sure of this pick, but I'd agree with fellow draft analysts Brad and Pablo that this
is the pick that makes the most sense. Last year Nate got his Franchise QB and took the lumps developing him. This year, he NEEDS the playoffs or this has all been for nothing. Nate did the smart thing and went out and secured his Mentor in Stanton (for a very reasonable price, I might add), and now turns his attention to the draft. From conversations I've had with Nate, I don't think he's sure what he's doing with this pick, but I think he'd LIKE to trade down. It's a tough market to do that in right now, but I think his best shot at that happening is if one of the teams in the Top 10 fall in love with Chark. He's THE best player in the draft, and he happens to be THE player that
should have the most immediate impact.... as we've seen time and time again that rookie WRs with this size and speed profile make an impact. And those HANDS? Insane. Speed kills. It's just in the code. What took the Dallas Offense over the top this year? Adding Baldwin at 6'5" 99/99/99. What propelled the Rams and saved their job? Refusing to trade 6'5" 99/99/99 Mike Evans. Now I don't have the private workout on Chark, because that would be stupid of me, but he looks well within range of 6'4" 99/99/99 very early on in his pro career. Couple that with the absolute gift of the draft gem at WR last year that gave them 6'4" 94/94/99 WR Mack Collins last year in the 5th round... and you've got a real problem to defend. If Nate can make the playoffs and survive the season, he's going to really enjoy the fruits of these last two painful years. Chark gives them the best chance to do that.... unless someone offers some crazy last minute trade that maybe allows them to move down a couple picks and add a premier starter and still add a player like Nick Chubb.
PABLO P'S PICK 
WR D.J. Chark Jr., LSU
BRAD BARBER'S PICK WR D.J. Chark Jr., LSU
[1.2] 
QB Sam Darnold, USC 
========> 20 years old | 6’4” | 225 lbs. | 60 AWR | 99 THP | 85 THA | 99 INJ
Is Darnold the 2nd best player in this draft? I don't think so. But the appeal of Darnold is that he checks all the boxes WHILE only being 20 years old. In a league where regression comes QUICK, you have to maximize the window your QB is going to give you a chance to win a Super Bowl. AC
tried to develop a QB the last two years in Philly, but he was doing it while under duress of the Hot Seat, so he never REALLY got to develop those QBs, as they rotted on the bench at the mercy of needing 6 wins. If he's smart, and I think he is, he'll understand that this is his chance to grab a guy and PLAY him and assure that by the time Year 3 and 4 of this contract come around, he'll have a legit option at QB that not only CAN win enough games, but SHOULD win enough games. Darnold also likely will not need much (if any) AP investment, as he's already got a great arm. You wish his AWR was as high as Mitch last year, but GB has already secured a mentor to assure that Darnold will get +10 AWR tacked on by the start of year 3. He also went out and got the #6 pick, too, so you should be able to check the QB box and still have a little fun.
PABLO P'S PICK 
QB Sam Darnold, USC 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK 
CB Charvarious Ward, Middle Tennessee State 
[1.3] 
WR Courtland Sutton, SMU 
========> 21 years old | 6’4” | 198 lbs | 62 AWR | 95 SPD | 92 AGI | 94 ACC | 84 CTH | 81 JMP | 66 STR
This is a tough spot for Buffalo, and I think both Pablo and Brad have hit on their two biggest needs. While Carlton "Grave Digger" Davis is a beast, and surely is worthy of the 3rd overall pick, I think CBs this raw struggle a LOT more than WRs this raw. And while Wade is young in his Buffalo rebuild, I think doing the math would show that ANY CB in this class could still be a liability in coverage by the time Year 4 of that GM Contract comes up. Hell, CB Demarcus Milliner, who I acquired from Buffalo and I know for a FACT that Wade would trade me [1.3] for straight up today if I wanted (well, I was offered [1.2] as well)... but even as talented as Milliner is, HE was sometimes still a liability during last year's Super Bowl run. He makes huge splash plays, but sometimes he just gets beat. And as a GM, I just think Wade is more likely to try and trade that pick for a CB much further along in their "just watch them get beat" phase. I think a smarter play for them would be to snatch an impact WR (who can play very well as dummies) to help aid McCarron's growth. Like him or not, AJ is the guy in Buffalo. Get him some weapons. Buffalo doesn't seem to love ANY of his options... they shipped off Devin Lucien to Indy, and WR Kenny Bell (who was arguably their first big addition) has been available on their trade block for a month. Kenny Bell is really good, and certainly worthy of the last 2nd or early 3rd you could spend to get him... but that expiring contract is scary. With no clean way to retain, and him still needing some AP love, it's an investment I think a lot of teams are weary of. For those reasons, he probably offers more value to Buffalo, and I'd keep him. Then I'd draft 6'4" Sutton and dump as much AP as I could into him and play him in WR2 and watch AJ get the bump in his stats. Now I don't have the private workout on Sutton, but he'd need to at least stay where he's at... and maybe even go up a little... to be worthy of this pick. I'm also not sure if New England would deal with the division rival, but if I'm Buffalo I'm drafting Sutton here, and then sending a Future 1st and current 2nd to New England to see if I can't add CB Pierre Desir and WR Victor Cruz. Then I'm adding a mentor WR in Free Agency for Sutton, and maybe hanging onto CB Carroll for one more year.
PABLO P'S PICK 
CB Carlton Davis, Auburn 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK WR Courtland Sutton, SMU
[1.4] 
WR Tre'Quan Smith, USF 
========> 22 years old | 6’2” | 203 lbs | 62 AWR | 97 SPD | 92 AGI | 95 ACC | 78 CTH | 85 JMP | 67 STR
This is honestly a worst case scenario for Chicago. WR is clearly their weakest position on their roster (I was surprised by HOW strong they are at most spots, young too, but I guess anyone can look bad when you IR your QB for the season for a 3 week injury). Ultimately, I think if Chark and Sutton are both gone by the 4th pick that the Bears will try to trade down or trade out... but Tre'Quan Smith IS going to go a lot higher than some pundits see him going. Right now my fellow mockers have him at 16 and 20, but I'll be very surprised if he's not a Top 10 WR and has potential to be the 3rd WR off the board when guys see the private workout. Smith is young, quick, good size, and could really be a force with some AP. Plus he's a Florida man, so he can go visit family with Ainge when he's on IR midseason with a paper cut.
(I kid, I kid)
PABLO P'S PICK 
WR Courtland Sutton, SMU
BRAD BARBER'S PICK HB Nick Chubb, Georgia 
[1.5] 
HB Nick Chubb, Georgia
========> 22 years old | 5'10” | 240 lbs | 93 SPD | 86 STR | 88 AGI | 91 ACC | 60 CTH | 91 CAR | 94 BTK
I'm skeptical that Chubb will last to [1.5], but if he does this would be a beautiful pick by GM Ian Coyle. Chubb is a big bruiser that has crazy good hands for a rookie. He should come out with the size/speed/btk combo that will NOT have to worry about fumbles. That's pretty great. He could usher in a new era of Browns football, similar to how he did in the NFL. The Browns will also need to draft a Safety at some point in this draft, and probably a WR, too. Look for them to hit these three crucial positions early and often, as they continue to reshape this team into one that could be a real threat with young QB Brad Kaaya in the coming years.
PABLO P'S PICK 
HB Nick Chubb, Georgia
BRAD BARBER'S PICK CB Carlton Davis, Auburn
[1.6] DE Bradley Chubb, N.C. State 
========> 22 years old | 6’4” | 269 lbs | 50 AWR | 81 SPD | 74 AGI | 92 ACC | 88 STR | 60 TAK
Back-to-Back Chubbs... or as Rock Hewko calls it, "Happy Hour!" Ultimately I have to break from fellow draft pundits here. I agree that CB is a need for GB, but I think it's dangerous to try and develop a QB and a CB at the same time. You only get one mentor. I think with a young QB getting reps, the Packers would be smart to go veteran in the secondary, so I'd wait a year (or two) to draft CBs (if ever). We know from AC's time in Philly that he loves an athletically gifted DUMB defensive end, and he's got a version of that here. Chubb is the best DL in the class. He's got good size, he's super quick, and if you are committed to putting the AP in him, he will be a very good pro player. He could easily be posting double digit sacks from the left side as early as his rookie campaign. Also, you don't need a mentor for your Top 10 pick here, because AWR really doesn't matter at DE. Is it a little early? Maybe, but if they move down they risk losing him.
PABLO P'S PICK CB Charvarious Ward, Middle Tennessee State
BRAD BARBER'S PICK QB Sam Darnold, USC
[1.7] 
CB Carlton Davis, Auburn
========> 21 years old | 6’1” | 203 lbs. | 99 SPD | 57 STR | 53 AWR | 99 AGI | 96 ACC | 66 CTH | 67 TAK | 92 JMP | 92 INJ
I see the SS logic, as Sabby would probably fetch a 2nd or 3rd still, and that would save $7M in cap space for a team that just paid a LOT of money for Alex Smith. Ultimately though, I just think this is a prime spot for "Grave Digger" Carlton Davis. I believe in the other two mocks he's gone by this point, and for good reason... he might be a Top 3 pick. If the season started today, Kenny Moore and Rasul Douglas are getting heavy minutes in the secondary, which is more of a liability than trotting out Sabby for one final season. I could definitely see Pablo grabbing the best CB in the class (whoever they think that is) and then trading for a mentor CB before day 1 of the draft is over. Kevin Barnes, who still has a house in Kansas City, is available. Davis checks every box. You wish he was a little smarter and an inch taller, but if that were the case he wouldn't be available at 7 overall. Get him a mentor and watch him shine for three tours (12 years). He's also very durable, can jump, and has above average catch and tackling for a rookie.
PABLO P'S PICK 
SS J.T. Gray, Mississippi State 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK SS J.T. Gray, Mississippi State
[1.8] 
SS J.T. Gray, Mississippi State
========> 22 years old | 6’0” | 202 lbs. | 95 SPD | 97 AGI | 99 ACC | 75 CTH | 79 TAK | 61 STR |
Denver really could use a LB, but this might be too early for that. Their CBs look pretty good... and they traded a stud for a pile of picks, so taking a CB here might not make sense. WRs are solid. Could use a HB, but there isn't another one worthy of the top 10. Chandler is too soon to mentor. OL looks solid and young. DL is fine. Ultimately, if I were Denver I'd trade this for an impact player. But if they stay put, JT Gray offers them the most upside and impact on day 1. He's a prototype in ever sense of the word. Ideally would be a little bigger, but if those attributes hold? Absolute stud. Mentor already on the roster.
PABLO P'S PICK 
HB Phillip Lindsay, Colorado 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK CB J.C. Jackson, Maryland 
[1.9] 
DE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State 
========> 22 years old | 6'5" | 270 lbs | 81 SPD | 88 STR | 86 AGI | 80 ACC | 60 TAK
Consensus here seems to be DE? I think that makes a lot of sense. Robert Ayers is still on the roster, but his production has been steadily declining the last few years, and he could save the team nearly $8 million in cap space. That's no small amount, and you know it's on Rock's mind because he rarely pops up for a Trade Block, but he posted one and it was mostly players with big cap hits. So floating Ayers until draft day to mask your DE desire, then cutting bait on the cap hit would be smart. Hubbard is also a guy that a private workout could cause him to SOAR up, or plummet to the bottom of the 1st. He's got outstanding measurables, and frankly in my 34 I'd love to have him at RE or even move him inside as an UT in a 43. If he skews right, you've got an absolute beast at LE with some AP work. Tons of upside on this player. He actually reminds me a lot of a guy that the Seahawks took (and traded) not too long ago in Preston Smith. I think Hubbard is going to go sooner than a lot of teams think, which is a bummer for me because I'd love if he fell to [1.31]!
PABLO P'S PICK 
DE Bradley Chubb, N.C. State
BRAD BARBER'S PICK DE Josh Sweat, Florida State 
[1.10] 
CB Charvarious Ward, Middle Tennessee State
========> 22 years old | 6’1” | 196 lbs. | 97 SPD | 67 STR | 57 AWR | 92 AGI | 95 ACC | 69 CTH | 76 TAK
OLB and TE are two solid projections here, but ultimately there is too much to like about snatching the 2nd best CB in the class (probably 1 on some team's boards) with the 10th pick. CB Pierre Desir has never felt like the right fit in New England, and he could be shipped off on draft day if the Patriots get an offer they like. Jimmy Smith is the mentor I bet the team was planning to use for newly acquired CB Teez Tabor, but they could easily give it to Ward instead, and let Teez get his AWR from play time at 66 AWR and 86 OVR. Teez could probably lock down CB1, you put a vet in CB2, and then let Ward play the nickel with a mentor for the rookie year. That's just how I'd play it, and then I'd see if I can't get a couple draft picks for Desir to draft an OLB and TE later in the 1st and 2nd.
PABLO P'S PICK 
OLB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma 
[1.11] 
TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma
========> 21 years old | 6’5” | 254 lbs. | 92 SPD | 58 AWR | 81 AGI | 88 ACC | 86 CTH | 78 STR | 47 PBK | 39 RBK
Great size, great hands, amazing speed and acceleration. Personally, I think 11 is a little high for ANY tight end, but last year the Buccaneers took Kittle at 10 and he had 15 damn touchdowns. I think Breck is one of THE most observant GMs in Madden leagues, and I know he noticed that. I remember mocking a TE to him last year after we acquired TE Sims from him, but that never came to pass. This year? The stars might finally be aligned. Breck could use some help in the trenches, but adding a premium weapon for new QB Nate Sudfeld may just be too great to pass up. I think the 2018 Colts will have a run-first vibe similar to what Bryan Mellon has been trying to do in Tampa with Kirk Cousins and Zeke. It is not beyond belief to see Andrews shine in a similar role to kittle where he eats up all the red zone looks... but I do wonder if Andrews being a liability in run support hurts him. There are WRs (including one in Tampa) who block better than Andrews. Breck says he'll
likely go QB, WR, OL, or S - but in this mock I don't think there is a WR worth taking, and the best S is gone. Breck has Sudfeld, so any posturing to take Allen would be to f-ck with Division Rival Apolo, who I legitimately think loves Josh Allen. Someone might move up with Breck just to assure Breck doesn't have to face Allen for a decade. OL is a real option, but Breck's comment about potentially getting the TEs to fall a little makes me wonder if that was as savvy veteran play to make sure your guy (TE Andrews) makes it to 11?
PABLO P'S PICK 
TE Mark Andrews, Oklahoma
BRAD BARBER'S PICK SS Jessie Bates, Wake Forest 
[1.12] 
QB Josh Allen, Wyoming 
========> 21 years old | 6’5” | 240 lbs | 61 AWR | 99 THP | 80 THA | 92 INJ | 75 BTK | 60 STR
Sam Bradford is 30 and can begin mentoring, and I fully expect Apolo to grab the Franchise QB in this class. And beyond that, Apolo is one of the best GMs in our community and he WILL know how to develop him. Allen will get his 500 yards per progression period, and Apolo will pick his spots to play the rookie. As if his 6'5" frame and 99 THP arm wasn't good enough, he also is strong enough to shake off a sack, AND he's the most coveted player in league history by now-retired GM Tom Collins, big fan of Apolo Shapiro. That alone should be enough to have the QB card turned in if Josh Allen makes it to the 12th pick. Unless someone snipes him, which is a real option because of the annual target that is on the back of the SFL All Stars and back-to-back AFC Champions.
PABLO P'S PICK 
QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
BRAD BARBER'S PICK TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State 
[1.13] 
WR Jaleel Scott, New Mexico State 
========> 24 years old | 6’5” | 218 lbs | 92 SPD | 86 AGI | 95 ACC | 75 CTH | 75 STR | 49 AWR
Jaleel might seem like a reach here, as the biggest mark against him is that he's already 24 years old in a league where regression starts at 30. But you know what does NOT regress? Size. Can't be trained, and it's there for life. We've seen big targets like Calvin Johnson stay productive WELL into regression. I agree that Brian O'Neill is a stud and will go in the 1st, but the 49ers have three capable guys they could plus in at OT today. At WR? They're one injury away from Jordan Matthews and Tavon Austin getting reps. Kyle Orton is going to need some big targets to throw to. As long as Jaleel doesn't skew down, you could plug him in the slot for the first year, the move him to WR2. Just pour AP into his SPD/AGI, and progression should max out his ACC. His low AWR means you can probably get him into a few Training Camps for the free CTH points. I don't know if it'll be in the Top 16, but this guy is going to go early and make someone very happy unless that private workout is absolute dog water.
PABLO P'S PICK 
OT Brian O'Neill, Pittsburgh 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK 
OT Brian O'Neill, Pittsburgh
[1.14] 
WR J'mon Moore, Missouri 
========> 22 years old | 6’3” | 205 lbs. | 99 SPD | 87 AGI | 94 ACC | 54 AWR | 73 CTH
A little raw for a Top 16 pick, but they've done something similar before with WR Kevin Norwood. Moore actually reminds me a bit of my WR Cody Latimer, which J'mon could pass for a decent impersonation with a good skew. The Falcons roster is VERY good. They don't have many holes, and at most positions they even have capable backups ready to roll. At WR, however, they only have three on the roster and 29-year old Titus Young, a lifelong Falcon, is the slot WR. He's good for about 500ish yards a year, but this is a spot that they could really upgrade and boost those Blake Bortles numbers heading into a year where the NFC South should be hotly contested. The Falcons are competing with two GMs who really NEED to win the division for job security, and the other guy has THREE SFL Super Bowls. The Falcons will need playmakers.
PABLO P'S PICK 
TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State 
BRAD BARBER'S PICK DE Bradley Chubb, N.C. State
[1.15] CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
========> 22 years old | 5'10” | 191 lbs | 83 AWR | 90 SPD | 92 AGI | 90 ACC | 75 CTH | 63 TAK
I don't think the Broncos want to take a CB in this class, BUT I think the exception might be a guy who is THIS polished with 83 awareness. I'm so tempted to run the private workout, because of the SPD/AGI/ACC numbers go UP this guy is an absolute steal, even at 5'10". I think a few years ago the Vikings had a guy like this... maybe Malcolm Butler? No, it was Xavien Howard. Nah, it wasn't him either. I might be tripping, but I think there was a guy that came out with 80+ AWR or close, but I think his speed went down to like 89? Either way, wish I could remember who that was. But even at 5'10", which sucks, this guy with a mentor could be 90 AWR as a sophomore. That's crazy. He's a blank canvas. Great hands. Could be a real playmaker, without the pains of developing a CB. He's just a guy you've got to matchup with WRs weekly, but that's not too hard.
PABLO P'S PICK SS Jessie Bates, Wake Forest
BRAD BARBER'S PICK 
CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville 
[1.16] 
SS Jessie Bates, Wake Forest
========> 22 years old | 6’0” | 200 lbs | 93 SPD | 69 STR | 64 AWR | 95 AGI | 95 ACC | 71 CTH | 92 JMP | 76 TAK | 57 AWR
Bates is the total package and totally worth this spot. That said, the track record of GM William Cook makes me VERY reluctant with this pick. Currently he's got two serviceable safeties, including a SS he traded for this offseason from Cincy. They are decent guys who went around the middle rounds and have "trade them for a 2nd round pick" upside. If you don't put much stock in the FS/SS position, these guys will do JUST fine. I personally spent my first few seasons here just signing Free Agents like TJ Ward, and actually had BETTER stats there than with the hand selected guys I have now that I've poured in countless AP points and they just check every box I want for a prospect. I can NOT get INTs out of my safeties. The guys already on the Chargers roster have snagged more than a few. But the reality is, neither of those guys are elite, and never will be. Bates WILL be elite. So it's incredible value at the 16th pick for a team that does NOT have a lot of holes. I could maybe see Will snag a backup HB here, or perhaps one of the OL in the class he likes best. He
does love drafting Offensive Lineman. And it would be good value at this point. But the best player left on my board and a clear upgrade on the roster would be Bates. But I doubt it's the pick. It'll probabably be who the Redskins take at 1.17 right after Will, sadly.
PABLO P'S PICK 
WR Tre'Quan Smith, USF
BRAD BARBER'S PICK QB Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State 
IN CONCLUSION... I really wanted to get all 32 done today in the double XP window, but it might not be meant to be. Work was crazy today. I'll see if I can at least add a few on here before midnight to get some bonus points, and maybe finish out the round before the draft Thursday.
Hope you all enjoy!
