Middle linebacker
The position that have been devaluated to a point many teams consider it secondary and easy to fill with a mid round pick, and there's some truth there but also i've been on the contrary side on this topic, yeah, when see a MLB with 80 + spd, 80+ str, most cases can find that in a 3rd or maybe a 4th round pick, even with better attributes, but also when see many teams, i think: could get an improvement, and yeah i see all the logic in not wanting to spend a premium pick for a bit extra of speed, or any other attribute, but at same time, i consider the position as one of the most critical on the game. It's loaded and finding a good MLB isn't hard, definetily, 100% agree, but also for some very special players i think worth the investment, cause overall it'll help at the whole defense performance, some of the most succesfull GM's have described it as the quarterback of defense.
#1 Roquan Smith, he's exactly the kind of player i meant on the previous comment, he's an absolute stud, 87 spd, 88 str, 65 awr, 87 tak, unless he takes a very bad skew, he's meant to be one of the best players of the league at the position, and he could be a leader. The minimal red flaw comes with his size, he isn't as tall or as heavy, but based on my own experience i don't think that'll prevent him to be a monster. His 84 acc, could be the only other detail to pay atention too,if stays that way, is ok, but if goes down, could affect his performance, even in a position have devaluated a player as him wouldn't be a bad top 10 pick, and under no scenario should fall out of 1st round.
#2 Malik Jefferson: Ok, i know im reaching here, definetily doesn't expect him to be the 2nd MLB drafted or even close, but i do love many things about him. This pick here is similar to DE Sweat as #1, Jefferson is 6"3 – 84 spd – 87 agi – 88 acc – 62 awr – 87 tak, and only 21 yo, excellent attributes, so why he will fall? Well, he has only 61 str, that's absolute awful for what is being value at the position, but i can live with that, He reminds me a lot to Terry Pierce, back when i was at Cardinals got him from Bryan's Redskins, and he was extremely effective, the low strenght didn't affect him at all, cause was very smart, and yeah i know the league back then was very different, now almost every HB is on drugs and has high strenght, but still that kind of performance gives me hopes that Jefferson can be solid. I see the scenario where he fall, to mid-late picks, and becomes a rotation player and never develops, but if he does, and has a solid skew, i'll feel proud of Malik.
#3 Jack Cichy: Against my own personal likes, i'm picking Cichy here, i don't like this kind of prospects, 23 yo, low awr and tacke, but he's 88 spd and 80 str, i think that covers very well the progressables, and if he starts since day 1, and maybe gets a mentor in some seasons will be a stud, i wouldn't draft him at 1st round, but if PW is good never knows, he can be a homerun pick. Very elite potential here.
#Rest of players: Oren Burks is a similar version of Malik Jefferson, but stronger and dumber, he can be a desirable targer for many teams, specially at 2nd - 3rd round. Jossey Jewel is a player i don't think is over special at anything, but could be very solid, 87 spd is already something worth to take a look at, and he is progressed as well, it might sound crazy i rank him #5 when picked Jefferson #2 but is more a feeling thing, i just don't think he has the same learning curve, and i wouldn't take a ber on him so high, i see him falling and being a nice surprise for a team.
Outside Linebackers
This position is extremely hard to draft and value, specially at the top rounds, the glitch at LP site that gives +/- 5 at speed, makes it very random and risky to take a shot high at draft, and viceversa, can find a stud in a later round with some luck, contrary to MLB, i think the league needs better OLB's specially progressed ones, it's getting common to see fast players here, some crazy studs but that are somehow raw. I do like this year OLB class, i predict some of the players will be really good after skew. Something to consider about the position is that many teams doesn't value it as high, maybe cause the speed glitch, or maybe cause doesn't cause a huge impact in game as others positions as CB, a OLB has to be really elite to be draft top 10, and very good for be 1st round, personally i don't mind spending on OLB's i'm aware the difference between an Elite one and a good one often doesn't change the game, but feels nice having a sexy player.
#1 Tremaine Edmunds, for me this one was easy, he's an stud with 93 tak, currently only 8 players have that number at the position, most of them are on the regressing stage being Aldon Smith at 27 the youngest, so grabbing a player only 21yo with that attribute, will allow to spend all the progression to awr, and have a very progressed player in 3-4 seasons, that also should help his performance as rookie, basically receiving a player around 26 yo learning curve but 5 years younger. The speed is elite with 91 and 90 acc, he's an arrow, doesn't have uber strenght or size, but he's ok. The agility of 82 could be a concern specially if goes down, for me he has the talent to be drafted top 10, I'm not entirely sure that will happens cause as mention the position isn't the higher at value chart, but whoever takes him will receive an excellent player.
#2 Dorian O'Daniel: Attributes wise, he might be the most athletic OLB i remember in any draft, 92 spd – 84 str – 90 agi – 93 acc, doesn't need to run fit the system for know he's probably the only one with those numbers (Of course he could be 87 spd or crazy 97) a little parenthesis, he's the kind of player i tend to burn a PW with and often regret lol, a player that could be unique with a positive skew, always fall for that at TE and OLB, and have never found the one, but one day, one day. Back to O'Daniel, the reason he's my number 2 and not 1 is cause he isn't as developed as Edmunds, he's 1 year older and mainly, he's undersized, i believe there's a correlation between strenght and body, i'll use a player of my own for explain my reasoning, is not propaganda cause not available for trade, but i applied the theory during draft. Kevin Dodd is 6"5 – 277 and 75 str (73 as rookie) i think in game he's stronger than a player as Dorian that yeah has 84 str but is 6"1 – 223. Mass body + Strengt, on my perspective works together, Dorian is an excellent prospect, 1st round guarantee (Unless awful PW) but still preffer Edmunds.
#3 Shaquille Leonard: Another excellent prospect, he's kind of a mix of the previous 2, he's in the middle of developed curve with 79 tak, doesn't reach the speed level of the other 2, but still is fast with 87 spd, and excellent strenght of 82, the weight of 230, is similar to O'Daniel a bit light for my own taste of player, but i'm sure he will be a very productive player. I see him being available at late 1st, early 2nd, depending much of the PW, i would describe him as a budget version of the previous 2 ranked players, you'll get a very similar experience without that extra elite, but at the end will be similar. If a team can't afford the investment of an stud OLB, but need one, should try to go after a player as Leonard, borderline elite with ton of potential.
#4 Fred Warner: I wanted to place him as #3-1 cause is almost identical to Leonard on many aspects, exactly same body, speed and strenght, he's more progressed on tackly by 4 points, but the reason he's at 4 and not 3 is cause the differential at agility and acceleration, specially the agility could be a problem. He has elite hands, im not sure if that will play a factor in a potential interception, but a nice extra, I place him on the same tier as Leonard, if draft at the right spot he has the potential to be a steal, if i were rebuilding a team, i would try to get players as Leonard or Warner, i believe they will fall cause the position and Edmunds – Dorian being there, but the quality is undeniable. I've made myself a reputation of being extremely elitist over my time here, of course i'll try to get in a position of take someone as Edmunds, but spoiler alert, don't be surprise if go with the budget option.
#5 Harold Landry: Ok i'm going to 5 names on the position, i think didn't do it in any of the previous but wanted to comment, on him, he's in a alone category, doesn't have the flash speed of the other prospects, but is extremely progressed, actually, he's the most progressed OLB, has 3 tackle less than Edmunds but 5 awr more, he's also 1 year older, but those attributes are from a veteran player and yet he's only 22. He's tall at 6"3 with decent strenght and weight, so good body, and brain, that alone will make him a productive player, now, his speed, agility and acceleration aren't that great, are still in a number i would start, definetily, but not as elite as the previous 4 players. Landry is a player i really like and could be a very productive one, if is draft at the right spot could be considered a steal, of course, depending how he skews.
#Rest of players: Made 5 before so not adding more here, yet i want to repeat this position always offer 1 or 2 players drafted in mid-late rounds, that skewed up and end looking very good, the players i listed are somehow those i believe have that little extra, and worth being drafted in da 1 and day 2, but day 3 will for sure add some starters to league.
Cornerback
Welcome to the big leagues, one of the most wanted positions, and one that often leads round 1 in players drafted, my favorite position in football, grew up watching Revis and love those players able to shut down the best receivers, coincidentally it seems to be the most important position on defense for Madden, and one of those premiums in the league, a team often judged by QB and then CB, when have both, inmediately on the playoffs conversation. The position is very hard to progress, at least talking from my own experience, i've seen some GM's that do it and truly admire them, as with any position i guess the key is to being patient and being able to endure the hits of playing a young player, specially since the rookie season, a low awr CB will be a pain and often will bite in PA resulting in a long TD, but that's the only realistic way to develop a CB, with the mentor system the task is a bit more simple as get +10 awr if mentored twice and then +2 and +2 if got both rookie and sophomore, so that can help with those players that join league being extremely raw, and that's what i think of most of this season rookies, they're below the desire awr, at least on my book, but some of them are athletically enought to worth the investment of mentor and the suffering of progressing.
#1 Carlton Davis, i didn't have to overthink it, he's the best prospect at the position, good size of 6"1, excellent age of 21 and 99 spd with agi and acc that will be 99 or close to it, i wouldn't spend a PW on him, the worst case scenario is that he gets to 96 spd, and yeah i know i'm talking from a pov of someone that always have AP on the pocker, but he's the kind of player even if went to 96 just buy +2 spd and get him to 99 , if he gets to 97 spd, just but + 1 with 25k AP and he will be 99 spd. Often when i see a player with 99 spd, i save the PW, but that's just me and a parenthesis. I don't love the awr of 53, but is something can be fix with mentorship and playing time, he being 21yo helps a lot, the player i compare him to is Byron Jones. He should be top 10 undeniable, and likely will be top 5.
#2 Denzell Ward: What? Yeah against my best judgement i'm picking here a 5"10 - 90 spd CB, that's crazy considering that a player with those attributes would likely go in a very late pick, the only reason he's here is cause have an absurd awr of 83, i don't remember a single rookie with that awr, he won't be a liability from a brain aspect, start at 83 (Assuming not changes on skew) and if is mentored (He doesn't need it but is a premium) will be like 95 awr or more by his sophomore season, now, 5"10 and 90 spd are 2 attributes very dangerous on a league that is becoming more and more physical, the risk on this pick depends much on the skew, lets assume he skew down, personally even if that smart i wouldn't take him remotely close to #2 CB and definetily not at 1st round, but if he skew up even a little bit, let's say to 91 or 92 spd, but him +1 or +2 spd and can have a 94-95 spd CB with 99 awr in 2 seasons, a very short one, but that is the kind of players that win games, specially if pay atention to matchups, if you play a team with a 6"5 WR would be very dangerous to align him there, even with the precedent that it can be shutdown, before i joined the league, former Falcons GM Dhani, used to chat with me about how his 5"8 CB was able to shutdown WR Randy Moss, and i suffered from Rams having CB's exactly as Ward shutting down my happy pass offense when was at Cardinals, if had to choose i would go with a player as Davis and others prospects will be listed, because the reward is bigger at long term, but Ward is definetily a unique prospect, aditionally to the absurd awr, has a very high catch of 75. My prediction with Ward is that if he skew up or even stay close to his current attributes, is a lock 1st round, and will likely go #2 (Depending GM's likes) but if he keeps falling is cause he skewed down, on that scenario i'm clueless about a value for him, he's exactly at the line of homerun or bust, 5"10 88 spd rookie, would be very raw to like. I'm writing this analysis longer than any other player, but he's the most intriguing prospect on the whole draft in my opinion, not the best one, but the most intriguing, he's the player could change perspectives about brain vs body,could change a lot how we value players, the closest player i could've thought at was CB Joe Haden drafted 1.16 by 49ers, 5"11, 90 spd, 68 awr as rookie, he went 1.16, and personally i think it paid off, 49ers won a SB with him at roster and his performance have been good, we talking Ward is 15 points more ready and he can be mentor, something Haden couldn't. The final aspect i want to mention is the regression curve, has the best progression curve of any CB ever, but his regression curve is as bad, once he turns out 30 yo, he won't be startable other than nickel-dime CB or mentor, players with 99 spd for example, go to 97 – 95 – 92 – 89 at 32 - 33 have similar spd, agi and acc than projected Ward. And that's it, let's see who takes a shot at him and how it goes.
#3 Simeon Thomas: I almost feel bad writting more analysis after wrote a page of a book for Ward, but going back to the real world, we have another prospect that will challenge our thoughts and that can dramatically change the way we see agility and acceleration, and that's Simeon Thomas, a 6"3 prospect with 94 speed, should always be on the top of any board, if he skews up i wouldn't be surprise if is the 1st CB drafted, yeah, maybe even before Davis a way slowest similar body frame CB as Richard Sherman went 1.4, David Amerson went 1.3 with similar speed, TJ Green went 1.2, could've been 1.1, but i wanted Henry to be at that spot, Vikings legend Sean Smith went 1.1, and the list goes on, at worst case scenario he's 91 spd, with 25k AP he's 93 and 94 with double boost, but that's the worst case scenario, he could go up a bit, then with investment he could be close to 99 spd, and that would make him the CB with the highest roof of the class, even more than Davis. The awr of 57 is on the meh area, not impressive but can go up with no problems, i said he was going to be a player that challenge myths, cause his agility and acceleration are bad, and will be always bad, does it matter? I don't know, i find it ugly, i would constantly being watching my games thinking, what if that complete pass was cause a low agility and acceleration, but i have no idea if that truly matters. He'll be drafted very high my prediction is that will go before Ward, and if i had to rank players i would place him #2, not because i think he's the 2nd best CB of the draft right now, but because when draft high at draft have to draft based on potential.
#4 Charvarious Ward: Depending the skew, Ward isn't much different as the player i put #1 being Davis, same height, could end with same speed, better awr, catch and tackle, yeah 1 year older but still at 22 not something to worry about, he has solid strenght, i don't think it'll matter much, but hey, it's sexy. Then have good agi and acc, not 99, but not that bad. Ward is the kind of player that complicates valuations and drafts a lot, if gives me the option to draft Davis top 5, or Ward top 15, i think the 2nd one is a better use of resources. I like Davis more, i just don't think worth to expend more money and higher pick for that difference. Kind of a benefit position if a team is looking for CB and Ward fall, excellent value pick there.
#5 Jaire Alexander: Love the 66 awr and the 21 age, i see him as a perfect middle point between a team wants a player ready (Ward) and a team wants an athletic player. Offers the best of 2 worlds and at same time special at nothing, the kind of smart pick that will turn into a solid player, excellent value if draft at the right spot.
#6 Kevin Tolliver. Please read the analysis on Thomas, and is almost the same, he's faster so the potential of 99 speed is very real, and excellent body frame of 6"2, as Thomas, draft him only if consider agility and acceleration are secondary attributes, the awr is a bit low with 52, i predict him to be a player that in paper looks great, don't be surprise if ends being 6"2 and 99 speed, but bad at everything else, the kind of player will lose you games and will have an awful catch allowed – deflections rate, but if manage to progress him, could be really solid, and who knows, maybe agi-acc are not relevant, i have no knowledge to say if do or not. A player i'll keep an eye, he needs to be draft at the right spot for being a good or bad value pick, i'm eyeing him as very late 1st, early to mid 2nd, if can get him there, take away the risk of value, and keeping only the risk of the games he'll lose you, something extra is that he seems to be a better option for teams with GM's with 5 years contract and likely entering a rebuild, hot seat and teams looking for a SB, might seen him as a wasted pick.
#Rest of players: Jermaine Kelly is an interesting prospect, he definetily spent some time at the gym, he might be the strongest CB we've seen, from my own experience that matters if play bumb and run defense (PC doesn't) and forcing some drops after catch, that happens but not that often.
Safeties
I really like the class of this year at the safety position, myself will likely draft one, i love speed at the position, and i think might be one of the GM's have invested more on the position at my time here, even on a position that isn't so valuable. The players are very fast, with the decent frame but not spectacular high, or very smart. Let's see them
#1 J.T. Gray, undoubtely the best prospect previous skew, he reminds me a lot to Eddie Jackson, drafted 1.5 last draft and was at the talks for even being 1.2 pick, He comes with a very solid awr of 66 and very high 95 spd and high agi and acc too, the potential of him is very high, he doesn't have a clear flaw, is the kind of prospect where i don't feel can add something worth of reading, my prediction is he going top 10.
#2 Jesse Bates: He's another very intriguing prospect, he's 2 points speed lower than Gray, but also 1 inch taller and stronger, the awr of 57 is not very good, neither is bad, but i've found the safety position is very hard to progress, and can see it by looking at how many Safeties over 90 awr we have, compared to let's say CB. Also the benefit is that many safeties have proven than can deliver even if not 99 awr, not the kind of raw player i would like having, so i think Bates could be an excellent option to receive a mentorship.
#3 Tremaine Edmunds: If only look at height and speed, he's a better prospect than Bates, but the low agility and differential of acceleration made him fall to 3rd spot, he do have almost same awr, 1 point more to let him at 58, the low strenght is also something to consider, i don't think will affect him much, specially as he has 217 pounds body. Can't go wrong with this pick, just i don't think he has the level of elite a player as Gray has, even if difference are not that big.
Rest of players: Minkah Fitzpatrick could be a very interesting pick if skew up, or even if stay the same, like his learning curve, i just didn't place him on the numbered list as think the athleticism of the other 3 players is 1 step ahead, but Minkah potential is definetily there. Marcus Allen with a mentor and playing since day 1 could be interesting, but needs to progress fast as is 23 yo.
K and P:
Not worth of mention
And that was the final part of the analysis per positions, a bit longer that i expected, but once start thinking about something is hard for me to stop, and wanted to share my thoughts of the positions, thanks for read!, next episode will include my favorites FA picks and how it could change the draft
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