The purpose of this article is to try to define a way to look at success in SFL looking at the sexiest and most crucial position: QB.
That would take the pulse of every division and ranking the better situations for success (aka: win a Superbowl) on short and long term.
This is no rocket science; it is more how I came to picture about how to measure the position I was myself in and compare it to the other guys in the division. I then thought I could extend it leaguewise and share it.
I plan to do an article about each division, but anyone can feel free to use the canvas to make his own, as everyone has his own hindsight looking at a spreadsheet. Like someone said one day: there are three types of lies: the small ones, the big ones, and the statistics!
The method is simple and bears some axioma:
- As in economics models, every other variable will be a non-factor, being considered even impact for the teams. As such, OL won’t factor in, GM style won’t factor in etc.
- Thus, only the following variables are being scrutinized:
o AWR
o THP
o THA
o INJ
o TGH
o Years left on contract
o Cap Space
o Mentoring: if already done, half done already or can be done for half mentoring, or won’t be done
o GM contracts years left (to judge continuity, even if, and I am an example of this, the strategy about players and positions can change drastically overnight)
- To have a grasp of the overall by team, the median will be used, because the average induces a wrong in a small and non-gaussian data
- That includes all the QB on the roster now: the data extraction has been done after week 1 broadcasting launched
- A mark ranking from A to D will be used
I am starting with the AFC South. Il will try to make it as regular as possible because as it is a static glimpse of an evolving point during the season (progression, activity points and Commishes fixes (XD) ), at some point the article will be moot and completely out of reality. Not that progression will ever warrant a +10 AWR in a quarter of season, but a +2 in AWR can clearly influence; or a QB can break the mythical barrier of 90 AWR.
With no further ado, here we go, as a famous Italian plumber would say.
COLTS
The Colts are in a strange situation. They had a Qb who spent two years under mentoring just to trade him, and get another, who is not as polished as Wentz is. As so, their starter, Sudfeld, gives no guarantee to post season in the next 2 years in my opinion. Otherwise, Sudfield has all the skills to be a successful Qb in the league. He also does give for two years a fine cap room as he costs nothing on the salary sheet.
The back-up Qb is not a guarantee of success. He is more a clipboard holder than a relief, his AWR at 66 is probably his ceiling than the floor.
All in all, if you look at the median, the Colts are the lowest, except for THA. THA can help ease the low median AWR, but not that much.
On another note, the GM is under contract for 5 years, which gives them time to develop Sudfield.
Short Term mark: C+
Long Term mark: B+
TITANS
The Titans are the reference of the division, with back-to-back SB appearances, and the recipe to build a powerhouse.
The current starter is a sure fire and skilled enough to face regression and gives stellar playing, while mentoring, for at least 2 to 3 more seasons. As so, the Titans are in an excellent position at QB for the short term. The backup is in the top tier in a pool becoming thin in the SFL due to regression, and GM prefering to keep decent backup, or wanting to sell them to high prices. This said, Andrew Luck has 1 to 2 seasons of good backup plays before being hit seriously by regression. As so, I think in the future it can weaken the Titans, above all if they don’t draft a rookie to mentor next draft. Falk was not put in the mentorship program, so he is not clearly view as the future.
The median stats are excellent, but Bradford inflates them.
Likewise, as the Colts, the GM has enough time to figure things out.
Short Terme mark: A+
Long Term mark: A-
TEXANS
Same as the Colts : they traded a Qb who entered the mentorship program last season; and this current season, they missed the deadline to declare Tanner Lee in. That is two years lost in the building for the future. Their starter Matt Ryan is the oldest of the division and is clearly in his last year of starter caliber worthy skills. He is also the biggest cap hit of the division, and having a large cap hit for nothing next season won’t help much the Texans.
The back-up, Russell, is not that kind of safety belt: with 82 THP, he won’t scare anyone, moreover that his THA is under 90, as well as his AWR.
Tanner Lee is a promising rookie, but as stated before, missing mentorship this season is a blow to his development to be a starter within 2 to 3 seasons.
The GM has still 3 years to right the ship, and it is feasible, but that bears concern aside trading for one quality QB.
Short Term mark: B-
Long term mark: C
JAGUARS
The Jaguars have the best situation … kidding ! They have a young promising QB entering year 4; but his progression has not been as good as it could have been, due to the fact of playing in a pass heavy scheme in his first 2 seasons. This said, Winston is getting there, one point shy of the 90 AWR. His THA lacks for a 4th year starter, but once AWR is in the 90, progression can be bounced that way.
The backup position is held by a veteran who is probably in his last year of quality play. Woodson can’t be a mentor (AWR under 90), and THP and THA are entering critical lows next regression. He is a stop gap in case of injury to Winston, and a safety net to the hot seat sanction for the GM.
Rudolph is a fine rookie who will miss a year of mentoring. He is view as the future backup, but won’t get there soon enough, and the Jaguars are in the same group about backup as the Colts and Texans next season (not that the Titans are much better, but I give the edge to Andrew Luck any days).
The hot seat to the GM can’t help the situation, because when his ass starts to feel the burns, this situation can explode if he deems necessary to break it to keep his job.
Short Term mark : B+
Long Term mark : B
DIVISION OVERALL
I think the division is ready on the short term and long term to compete for a title, thanks to the Titans now, and the Jaguars then, when you look at the starters. The Texans and Colts are still not in range in the future, but the Texans with Ryan at QB can do great thing NOW nonetheless.
The cap figure is also in good shape for 3 of the 4 teams; the Texans is not as much as the other, but Matt Ryan years left are not dragging them down, and the Texans GM can work things out.
Short Term mark: A+
Long Term mark: B+
