by Anthony Fernandez, June 6th, 2019
[1.1] 
QB Gardner Minshew, Washington State 
========> 21 years old | 6’1” | 225 lbs | 72 AWR | 97 THP | 84 THA | 67 INJ
Not a ton of analysis needed here. Like with Mitch in New Orleans, the suspense has been bled out of this selection. Ironically, it's the same division, and also Minshew has some of the same concerns that Mitch had. He's small and injury prone... which as a GM who snatched up 6'7" Glennon and his 99 INJ/TGH... I could never. That said, when you're THAT high in the draft, with the SFL Age 30 regression, you need a QB with high AWR. And Minshew has that. His THP/THA combo is nice coming out, too. Carolina has a mentor in place. So while he's not a perfect prospect, everything is in place to make sure he's a very, very good one. He should be the franchise QB in Carolina for a decade.
[1.2] 
WR DK Metcalf, Ole Miss 
========> 22 years old | 6’4” | 235 lbs. | 99 SPD | 99 AGI | 98 ACC | 78 CTH | 54 STR | 89 JMP | 73 INJ
The best prospect in the draft. I'm not sure how we let Mellon get him, much like we let him get Zeke a few seasons ago, but if he keeps landing blue chip talent on draft day he is
NEVER going to leave Tampa and let me GM my favorite team. Not a ton of analysis needed here, since despite Mellon's trolling on Discord, we know this will be the pick. If it were ME in Carolina, I'd almost take Metcalf at 1 and hit Baltimore with a king's ransom for [1.3] to get Minshew. Anytime you can crush the hopes and dreams of a division rival in these leagues... you HAVE to do it. But I think it's far more likely it plays out this way, and Mellon lands a stud. Only concern on DK is the injury rating... and as someone who has a stud WR (Latimer) with low INJ rating... DK
will have some season altering injuries in his career. He'll be a stud for a decade+, but he is gonna miss a year or two. For Latimer, it was season ending injuries two of the last three years. One year we lost the NFC Championship, the other year we were upset RIGHT before the NFC Championship, and the other year (when he was healthy) we won the Super Bowl. Luck plays a factor in these leagues. But somehow... Mellon always has incredible luck, so maybe he'll be fine.
[1.3] 
WR AJ Brown, Ole Miss ***TRADE WITH BALTIMORE*** (1.12 and other considerations for 1.3)
========> 22 years old | 6’1” | 225 lbs | 98 SPD | 89 AGI | 97 ACC | 86 CTH | 74 JMP | 81 STR | 94 INJ
Ravens on the clock with the first pick we don't know WHAT they are doing. What do you give to a man who has everything? I think the pre-draft consensus is that this pick is Rock Ya-Sin, as he is a truly special talent, but just from looking over the Ravens roster, I don't think that's what Norb wants. I have felt through through the pre-draft process, and that was validated by Norb recently putting the pick up on the block with the catch, "will move down no lower than [1.12]", so clearly he has someone he likes. That tells me WR and CB are probably not his first choice, because those positions are far too volatile and WILL take multiple hits before the 12th pick. So what then? He's recently got two great young safety's. His DL is amazing. He just got a stud HB. He got a steal at TE last year. That leaves OL or LB. Two of his LB positions are very locked in. There are some STUD OL in this class, but Norb looks fine there. I have to think he would LIKE to draft a LB, but knows 3 is way too high. I'm personally not a fan of the MLB class, but OLBs like Rashan Gary and Josh Allen could be REALLY special if their SPD got any love at all. I also think those guys, while not top 10 talent, will be snatched up in the teens, so 12 is a reasonable spot to try and recoup some assets and grab one there. It's a really interesting spot - as Norb could easily not like the value of a trade down and just take the CB that will eventually replace Josh Robinson (who I know they think very highly of). I can vouch that trading down might be very difficult in this class because of the (false) assumption it's a "weak" class. There are some absolute gems in this class, and I have a feeling Norb will find a way to mine one. My money is at him trading out. I think he gets Tim Miller to bite. Broncos move up from 12 and get their first WR. Brown and Metcalf, college teammates, go 2+3 and it will be fun to watch their careers. AJ could slide simply because he's
only 6'1"... but he's the next most polished guy in the class. He is SO strong, and I think he's going to be able to do a lot of stuff on a team that will make his GM very happy. If I thought he'd fall to [1.7], I wouldn't trade down. The agility is a little lower than you'd like, but my good buddy Apolo was convinced that AGI didn't matter in WRs. He said SPD, then ACC, then CTH. Check, check, check for AJ. It's possible that the Broncos simply do not have the compensation to get to 3 and this deal doesn't happen. If that's the case, I still think Norb is the Broncos pick at 4. I'm sure Norb is in trade discussions telling Tim that if he tosses in his future 1st, it's a done deal. But Tim is, and should be, reluctant to trade his Future 1st because he plans to start Lamar, as a
scrambler, for 16 games next year. Knowing that, I couldn't in good conscience take that 1st from Tim. And he'd be silly to trade it, but I don't think he has much else. I'd be a little miffed if the TC let him trade that future 1st on draft day, but maybe the two teams could get creative with compensation. Maybe something like [1.3] and Future 1st (BAL) for [1.12] and Future 1st (DEN). That's still a gamble, because I think that the Ravens will be very good, and the Broncos have an uphill battle to get to 8 wins with a scrambler... but you can at least SEE a path to the Broncos not regretting that trade. And if the Ravens get the guy they want at [1.12] anyway (for over $2m less per year), then everyone walks away from that swap happy.
[1.4] CB Rock Ya-Sin, Temple 
========> 23 years old | 6’2” | 190 lbs | 58 AWR | 98 SPD | 99 AGI | 97 ACC | 49 CTH | 67 TAK | 56 STR | 90 JMP
Here's the follow up pick! Tim has been flirting with the idea on Discord of going back-to-back WR... but it feels like he's too smart to do that. Having developed a young QB myself, I would tell Tim that what those guys need THE most are veterans. You can't develop your entire offense at once (don't look at what Nate is doing in New Orleans, he's an outlier). Especially with the QB being a scrambler, that's a recipe to build a very talented team that you don't get to GM for very long. The move up allowed them to snatch the #2 WR in the draft, and now they have a chance to snatch the #1 CB. These 6'2" guys that can "max out" don't come along often, but GMs NEVER regret taking them. Like many prospects in this class, he does NOT come without risk, however. Rock is already 23 years old, which is a bummer, and starts out with 58 AWR. That gives him an 8 season window before regression... and let's be real, that's probably long enough, right? What are we, running this shit until 2030? Probably not. But at the very least, I'd want him to have a mentor for 2 years, but Lamar is gonna eat one of those two seasons. Still, unless some of these other guys have wild PWs, I can't see any other CB leapfrogging Rock as the #1 guy on the CB chart.
[1.5] 
SS Marquise Blair, Utah 
========> 23 years old | 6'2” | 195 lbs | 96 SPD | 91 AGI | 96 ACC | 62 STR | 60 CTH | 73 TAK
According to Breck's list, he was doing PW for HB Pollard, DK (gone), AJ (gone), WR McLaurin, WR Deebo, DE Maxx Crosby, Ya-Sin (gone), CB Sean MurphyBunting, and SS Blair. It's a solid list, but looking over what's left, and the Colts roster, I think Blair is the guy that MOST screams "top 5 talent." For me, he's one of the few guys that got "targeted" on site, which is something I rarely do. I don't even have a need at Safety, but Blair has EVERYTHING you want. I wish he was a year or two younger, but I feel like this is a position in general where the top ones come in a little older. Breck has seemingly been shopping SS Josh Evans for as long as I can remember. I could be tripping, but I think one year he even had him match eligible and posted up the contract GMs would need to get him for a 3rd or 4th, and nobody bit. But like the mighty cockroach, Evans is still standing. But now... on the brink of 30... with a top 5 talent shaking his ass in Breck's direction... I think the bull goes and gets his guy. The sheer number of WR on this PW list tells you Breck would LIKE to grab one... and only two are gone, so maybe he pulls the trigger there, but I think the smartest pick is Blair.
[1.6] 
OL Andre Dillard, Washington State
========> 21 years old | 6’5” | 310 lbs | 68 AWR | 64 SPD | 79 AGI | 86 ACC | 89 STR | 81 PBK | 78 RBK
Incredibly wise for his age, Dillard is almost a perfect prospect. I'm sure some have run the PW, and as long as his STR doesn't go DOWN, he's going to be a Pro Bowl RT for many years to come. To be 21, with that AWR, and his block skills, and that agility and acceleration... amazing. This is someone who has been WAY under mocked. I don't see any way he falls out of the Top 10, and while I'm sure Phil would love to get him with one of the later 1sts... he simply won't be around that long. Even if the STR isn't perfect, he'll be blocking DE's who don't sniff 90 STR, so he'll be just fine.
[1.7] 
HB Tony Pollard, Memphis 
***TRADE WITH DALLAS*** (1.30, 2.26, Future 1st for 1.7, 3.15, 4.15, and Future 7)
========> 22 years old | 6'0” | 209 lbs. | 94 SPD | 86 STR | 69 AWR | 86 AGI | 91 ACC | 67 CTH | 81 BTK | 78 CAR | 90 INJ
I have absolutely NO inside information on this, as Brad and I did not talk prospects or positions at all here, but I just think it would be incredibly lucky if he moves up to 7 and arguably the 2nd best player in the draft class is waiting there for him. It's kind of crazy to me that in a class that the vast majority of folks are "down" on, a player that would be a generational talent in most classes isn't getting Top 5 buzz. Granted, the Texans have Johnathan Stewart, who is still playing at a very high level, but they could easily split time this year and move Pollard into the full time role next year. That STR is insane, and depending on the skew he could be a 90 STR/99 BTK player very soon. Insanity. I know he's thin... but he's super quick, and I can see him as a player who is going to get outside an absolutely obliterate that first open field tackler, and then put on the jets. We just resigned David Johnson to a lucrative contract, and added Stevan Ridley as backup, but even with both of them on the roster, had we stayed at 7 it would be very hard to pass on Pollard.
[1.7] 
HB Tony Pollard, Memphis ***TRADE WITH DALLAS*** (1.28, 2.14, Future 1st for 1.7, 3.15, 4.15, and Future 5)
========> 22 years old | 6'0” | 209 lbs. | 94 SPD | 86 STR | 69 AWR | 86 AGI | 91 ACC | 67 CTH | 81 BTK | 78 CAR | 90 INJ
WOW! That was a twist. I started writing this mock assuming the HOU/DAL trade was a done deal... simply waiting to hear back from Detroit... and then my good buddy Justin dug in and decided if WR Baldwin wasn't involved, he didn't want to move to 7. He had a fair counter, that I went back and forth on, and DE Frank Clark was VERY nearly a Cowboy. But it just wasn't meant to be. In the mean time of my indecision, my old PTI buddy Ian (and perhaps future PTI buddy, with Apolo now retired), we got an offer that was very similar to what we were 99% certain we were accepting... the main difference being 1.28 instead of 1.30. Now the two spots up? That matters little to me. But 1.28 is actually the DALLAS pick, which comes with an additional 25k AP. So basically, whoever I draft in that spot has a free 1 point buffer to protect him a tiny bit from the skew. I feel horrible bailing on the Houston offer, but on draft days there are twists and turns for sure. As to how at affects this MOCK? I am almost on pick 16, so instead of re-jiggering the entire thing, I'm going to keep Pollard here. I think he'd fit very nicely on the Browns roster, and as I said above, it's incredible value. That said, I'm like 99% sure that Pollard will NOT be the Browns pick here. But my 99% dial appears to be broken. :*(
[1.8] 
CB Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt 
========> 21 years old | 6’3” | 212 lbs. | 91 SPD | 80 AGI | 91 ACC | 59 CTH | 73 STR | 69 AWR | 59 TAK
Joejuan is a rare athlete, that if he were a bit faster would be a lock for the Top 3 picks. For Nate, it's incredible value at 8. He already has 3 stud WRs, so doesn't have to chase one of the (incredibly talented) projects at the WR position, and instead can grab this golden ticket. Nate loves AWR at CB, evident by the work he's done with CB Darby. He's got Nolan Carroll on the roster to mentor already, so the downside is minimal here unless Joejuan just stinks it up in his private workout. AWR and STR are amazing for a 21 year old. Will have a long, successful career. When discussing the CB class with fellow NFC South GM Garth Pearce, Garth cautioned about some of these BIG, talented CBs with low AGI. I don't know that there are a TON of great examples of this (successful, or otherwise), but I know I spent big in FA one year on the aforementioned CB Nolan Carroll, who was quite low in AGI, and he always overperformed for me. Would be a fitting mentor for Joejuan and a real full circle moment.
[1.9] 
CB Justin Layne, Michigan State 
========> 23 years old | 6'2" | 192 lbs | 94 SPD | 93 AGI | 99 ACC | 75 TAK | 50 STR | 86 JMP | 73 INJ
Everything you want in a CB. A little bit of an injury risk? But that's really reaching for a flaw at that point. His SPD/AGI/ACC are solid... but not skew proof. So you'd for sure have to see the PW before you pull the trigger top 10, but he's got enough pre-draft hype that I bet he's fine. Lots of folks mocking a SS to KC, including Rod, but I don't think he'll be around and there's a small drop after Blair in talent. The Chiefs have good corners... but they could do far worse than adding a phyiscal freak like this to their roster.
[1.10] 
SS Sheldrick Redwine, Miami 
========> 23 years old | 6'0” | 196 lbs. | 96 SPD | 72 STR | 57 AWR | 95 AG | 94 ACC | 47 CTH | 47 TAK
Ideal spot for a trade down, imo. The Bengals have loudly, and aggressively, resolved many of their true "needs" prior to the draft. They are also heavily INVE$TED in a contract that will surely hurt down the line, so it might be wise to trade this pick with all that top 10 guaranteed money. I think they've set up Jared Goff for HUGE breakout year potential... so drafting an OL to develop, or a CB to train, just seems counterintuitive. They actually could snatch one of the super talented CBs here just for the hell of it, but they've already got a really good, really young one that is gonna eat the mentor spot here this year. I'd personally try to trade down (or out) if they can get a solid player who will help them win NOW, but if they stay put the BPA at a position of need is Redwine... who has a cool name that might appeal to Brady, and also is from THE U. Redwine is extremely talented, but is more corner than true safety. He'll miss some tackles and drop some balls, but you're banking on him being in the right spot more times than not.
[1.11] 
WR Jalen Hurd, Baylor 
========> 21 years old | 6’5” | 230 lbs. | 93 SPD | 90 AGI | 94 ACC | 87 CTH | 56 STR | 49 AWR | 82 JMP
I have a hard time seeing a 6'5" WR with over 90/90/90 falling out of the top 10 in an SFL draft... but maybe a secret lies in the private workout? I just couldn't find a home for him while writing the mock in the top 10, but he wouldn't fall much further. The Dolphins have recently reworked their secondary (successfully), rebooted at QB, and let a talented 6'5" WR walk in free agency. For those reasons, I see Miami adding a WR here, unlike the TE he seems to keep getting mocked. I like ASJ at TE, and think he's good enough you don't have to burn the 11th pick on a TE.
[1.12] 
OLB Josh Allen, Kentucky 
***TRADE WITH DENVER*** (1.3 for 1.12 and other considerations)
========> 22 years old | 6’4” | 250 lbs | 79 SPD | 84 AGI | 93 ACC | 78 STR | 66 AWR | 60 CTH | 69 TAK
So this was the trade down that I outlined in great detail on the [1.3] pick as for the thought process for Baltimore here. I admit, I liked the idea more when I was writing about it at [1.3] that I do here after the picks have played out. I wonder if worry of a similar feeling will keep Baltimore at the third pick tonight? Fun fact, last year I had QB Josh Allen mocked at 1.12, so I didn't even have to change the name. I actually like OLB Gary a little more, but without having seen the PWs, Allen is a little safer. He's not a perfect prospect, and he needs his SPD to skew up, but he does a LOT of stuff good. Some AP love, maybe a TC or two, and you've got a stud LOLB.
[1.13] DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama 
========> 23 years old | 6’3” | 289 lbs | 83 SPD | 73 AGI | 69 ACC | 97 STR | 68 TAK
We've seen a LOT of DTs mocked early in these mock drafts, which has been surprising to me, since it seems like a bit of an underwhelming class. But don't take it from me, I'm just a guy that drafted my starting NT for the last decade at the end of the 2nd, and recently got his replacement in the 5th round (with 98 STR, 70 AGI, 82 ACC, and 77 TAK after two years). I like Williams the best of the bunch, even though I wish his ACC was higher. But what he lacks in ACC, is made up by how much better he is with SPD. And if you look at sack statistics across the league, there is one stat that is king, and it's SPD. He reminds me a lot of a Nazair Jones, who FELL in the draft a couple years ago, even though most had him mocked as a 1st rounder. That said, this still feels high, but when you've got the amount of 1sts that Phil has, you can reach a little to get a guy you like. I'm not sure if this is the DT he likes, but I expect him to hit the trenches on draft day early and often with his new team.
[1.14] WR Terry McLaurin, Ohio State 
========> 22 years old | 6’ | 210 lbs. | 99 SPD | 99 AGI | 97 ACC | 59 AWR | 80 CTH | 29 STR
Browns are back on the clock, ironically right as news of our trade broke and I had to rework the mock a little. I suppose I could have just moved Pollard to this pick... but I don't see ANY scenario where he makes it to 1.15, frankly. Who DO I see them taking? WR Terry McLaurin looks like a stud. He will likely be 6' with 99/99/99 when all is said and done. Could give the Browns flashes of peak Victor Cruz era. Literally everything checks on this prospect. If you wanted to reach for a flaw, MAYBE the STR? But I think there are plenty of examples of successful WRs who had crappy STR. I also think folks are sleeping on his above average AWR. If a team had the luxury of a mentor, and maybe one TC... this guy could be an EARLY contributor.
[1.15] CB Isaiah Johnson, Houston 
========> 21 years old | 6'4” | 202 lbs | 54 AWR | 90 SPD | 83 AGI | 94 ACC | 49 CTH | 85 TAK
Isaiah is such a rare prospect that the Raiders would be wise to take him earlier, but CB isn't as big a need for them. But at 15, the potential is too much to pass. That agility could hurt, and the SPD is not bullet proof, but he's 21 years old with his entire career ahead of him. Even if the Raiders take him, develop him a little, let his rookie/sophomore boosts kick in, and then trade him.. they'd be looking at a top 10 pick easily.
[1.16] 
TE TJ Hockenson, Iowa 
========> 23 years old | 6’5” | 248 lbs | 89 SPD | 72 STR | 82 AGI | 81 ACC | 71 CTH | 81 JMP | 58 RBK | 61 AWR
Would this be a "slide"? Based off the mocks with TEs going high, I'd say so. But I think it's a little bit of an underwhelming TE class, and the talent at TE across the board has never been better in SFL. That said, at 16, Hockenson is not bad value. He's got potential for ELITE speed, and his skew may have made his AGI/ACC a little more rare. He's not bad at anything, and is the most complete TE prospect in the class. The Patriots don't have a ton of needs, so to grab the best TE in the class for Carr isn't an awful plan.
IN CONCLUSION... I'm gonna try very hard to get the bottom 16 picks done before the draft kicks off tonight - but no promises! Hope you fiends enjoy! These are just opinions, so sorry if I mocked you the wrong guy or had the wrong read on your team.
