2019 SFL Playoff Prediction and End of Year Award Opinion bu GM Mellon
Here are my opinions for the 2019 SFL end of year awards and my own playoff predictions.
I am writing this article on the eve of week 17 so there’s still a full week to go before time to nominate players has ended.
Defensive Player of the Year
MLB Shaqulil Barnett- Minnesota Vikings
Key stats: 114 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 5 interceptions
SS Jonathan Dowling- Tennessee Titans
Key stats: 58 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 forced fumbles, 5 int’s, 1 TD
CB Byron Jones- Detroit Lions
Key stats: 75 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 12 int’s, 40 deflections
LE Dion Jordan- Tennessee Titans
Key stats: 56 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 17 sacks
ROLB Tyler Starr- Indianapolis Colts
Key stats: 76 tackles, 11 tackles for loss
My opinion:
I question a couple of the options here as a couple of these players may have had good seasons I don’t think you can say they had defensive player of the year type of seasons. I think the top three players are clear: CB Byron Jones of the Lions, LE Dion Jordan of the Titans and MLB Shaqulil Barnett of the Vikings.
My Winner:
I think the award has to go to CB Byron Jones of the Lions. I believe his stats were simply the most impressive in the the league.
Offensive Player of the Year
WR Michael Crabtree- Philadelphia Eagles
Key stats: 81 catches, 1451 rec yards, 12 TD’s
RB Zeke Elliott- Tampa Bay Bucs
Key stats: 2119 rushing yards, 5.36 avg per rush, 18 TD’s, 11 fumbles
RB Derrick Henry- Tennessee Titans
Key stats: 1874 rushing yards, 5.43 avg per rush, 15 TD’s, 5 fumbles
WR Stephen Hill- Cleveland Browns
Key stats: 79 catches, 1404 rec yards, 12 TD’s
QB Mark Sanchez- Philadelphia Eagles
Key stats: 4510 passing yards, 56% comp rate, 38 TD’s, 14 int’s, 102.7 QB rating
My opinion:
The rushing seasons from Derrick Henry and Zeke Elliott has been a fun one to watch. Taking nothing away from the seasons of WR’s & QB (Stephen Hill and Michael Crabtree were great and QB Mark Sanchez was hot as he could end up with 4000+ passing yards and 40 TD’s) I think offensive player of the year has to go to one of the RB’s. Zeke Elliott has already surpassed 2100 rushing yards on the season but RB Derrick Henry will also have a chance to join the very tough to get into 2000 rushing yard club.
My Winner:
It might be considered a homer pick, but my choice for offensive player of the year is RB Zeke Elliott of the Tampa Bay Bucs. His stats speak for themselves and even with the high number of fumbles he was the clear leader on the Tampa Bay Bucs and had what was perhaps the best season a RB ever had.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
ROLB Josh Allen- Jacksonville Jaguars
Key stats: 60 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks
LE Max Crosby- New Orleans Saints
Key stats: 34 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, 2 forced fum, 1 deflection
FS Saquon Hampton- Pittsburgh Steelers
Key stats: 66 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 forced fum, 1 int
DT Kingsley Keke- Jacksonville Jaguars
Key stats: 32 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 8 sacks, 1 fumble, 1 fum recovery
CB Iman Marshall- Carolina Panthers
Key stats: 62 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 int’s, 34 catches allowed, 15 deflections
My opinion:
I think the top two defensive rookies this year for me at least, were both DL. I think both DT Kingsley Keke and DE Max Crosby had great seasons. They have totaled over 30 tackle and good sack totals.
My Winner:
For me, the winner of the defensive rookie of the year is DE Max Crosby of the New Orleans Saints. In addition to 34 tackles, he total 19 sack/tackles for loss. That is a very impressive total for not just a rookie but any DL. GM Nate Jones got some flack on draft day after selecting Crosby with the 8th overall pick. Now, GM Jones may get the opportunity to throw the SFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award in everyone’s faces!
Offensive Rookie of the Year
RB Darrell Henderson- Chicago Bears
Key stats: 1235 yards rushing, 4.04 avg per rush, 10 TD’s, 5 fumbles
LT Tytus Howard- Minnesota Vikings
Key stats: 65 pancakes, 2 sacks allowed
WR Jalen Hurd- Miami Dolphins
Key stats: 65 catches, 1117 rec yards, 6 TD’s
QB Gardner Minshew- Carolina Panthers
Key stats: 3155 passing yards, 48.9 comp rate, 18 int, 10 int’s, 3 fumbles, 51 sacks, 78.9 QB rating
RB Tony Pollard- Philadelphia Eagles
Key stats: 1208 yards rushing, 4.11 avg per rush, 5 TD’s, 4 fumbles
My opinion:
If it wasn’t for a mid year, season ending injury we would probably have added Raiders rookie WR Terry McLaurin to this list. For me the top three candidates for offensive rookie of the year are RB’s Darrell Henderson & Tony Pollard plus QB Gardner Minshew.
My Winner:
I am going with Panthers QB Gardner Minshew as Offensive Rookie of the Year. He got injured in week 16 but up until then had started every game for the Panthers. He surpassed the 3,000 yard plateau and had only 10 int’s. The low int number is what really sealed the deal for me.
Offensive Lineman of the Year
There is time for write in votes but as of right now here are the nominated players for defensive player of the year:
RT James Carpenter- Arizona Cardinals
Key stats: 88 pancakes, 3 sacks allowed
LG Parker Ehinger- Chicago Bears
Key stats: 67 pancakes, 0 sacks
LT Morgan Moses- New York Jets
Key stats: 109 pancakes, 1 sack allowed
Russell Okung- Tennessee Titans
Key stats: 65 pancakes, 0 sacks allowed
C Matt Tennant- Tennessee Titans
Key stats: 50 pancakes, 0 sacks
My opinion:
While the 0 sacks allowed by the Titans representative are great, I think my top two players are LT Morgan Moses of the Jets and RT James Carpenter of the Cards. Carpenter had to block for multiple QB’s for the Cards this season and still only gave up 3 sacks.
My Winner:
My winner is LT Morgan Moses of the Jets. Moses has eclipsed the 100 pancake total and through 16 weeks has given up just 1 sack. This equals an amazing season.
Breakout Player of the Year
RB Montee Ball- Indianapolis Colts
Key stats: 1407 rushing yards, 4.08 avg per rush, 5 TD’s, 6 fumbles
WR Michael Crabtree- Philadelphia Eagles
Key stats: 81 catches, 1451 rec yards, 12 TD’s
QB Sam Darnold- Green Bay Packers
Key stats: 3571 passing yards, 47% comp rate, 22 TD, 22 int, 1 fumble, 66.9 QB rating
CB Justin Hardee- Jacksonville Jaguars
Key stats: 60 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 9 int’s, 2 TD’s
FS Brandon Taylor- New Orleans Saints
Key stats: 59 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 3 fum recoveries, 2 int’s
My opinion:
WR Michael Crabtree may have had the most impressive season of any of the nominees however he is a former #4 overall pick and had enjoyed a tremendous SFL season thus far. Due to this I did not consider him a breakout player.
My Winner:
I am choosing CB Justin Hardee as my choice for Breakout Player of the Year. I think his production increase over what he had during his first two years is what made the decision for me.
Most Valuable Player of the Year
WR Michael Crabtree- Philadelphia Eagles
Key stats: 81 catches, 1451 rec yards, 12 TD’s
RB Zeke Elliott- Tampa Bay Bucs
Key stats: 2119 rushing yards, 5.36 avg per rush, 18 TD’s, 11 fumbles
QB Chandler Harnish- Kansas City Chiefs
Key stats: 3957 passing yards, 57% comp rate, 37 TD’s, 7 int’s, 9 fumbles, 110.3 QB rating
CB Byron Jones- Detroit Lions
Key stats: 75 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 12 int’s, 40 deflections
QB Mark Sanchez- Philadelphia Eagles
Key stats: 4510 passing yards, 56% comp rate, 38 TD’s, 14 int’s, 2 fumbles, 102.7 QB rating
My opinion:
The top three players deserving the MVP award this year, in my opinion are RB Zeke Elliott, RB Derrick Henry (who has not been nominated yet) and CB Byron Jones. QB’s Chandler Harnish and Mark Sanchez had great seasons and are rightfully nominated. Harnish had half the int’s Sanchez had but had 7 more fumbles than Sanchez. In a head to head review I would give the nod to Harnish but it would be a very close review.
My Winner:
I am being a homer here but I am going with Zeke Elliott. He is already in the record books as this season being the 3rd highest rushing total ever and the highest in 16 SFL seasons. He is 5 yards from taking over Ahman Green’s 2003 total of 2124 and is 73 yards from breaking Priest Holmes 2003 total for most ever rushing yards in a season. He has already broke the rushing TD record in a single season with 18. I think Zeke’s totals speak for themselves.
GM of the Year
Nathan Jones- New Orleans Saints
Key stats: 8 wins, 7 loses & extends his GM contract. Nathan extended his contract two seasons ago with the QB save. This year he was on the GM save but thanks to the Saints battling all season, he has extended his contact!
Brent Lachapelle- Chicago Bears
Key stats: 11 wins, 4 loses, won the division and in the hunt for a home field advantage and 1st round bye
Tim Miller- Denver Broncos
Key stats: 7 wins, 8 loses, extended his contract
Felipe Santos- St Louis Rams
Key stats: 8 wins, 7 loses, wins the division with a week 17 loss, misses the playoffs with a loss
Brady Tinnin- Cincinnati Bengals
Key stats: 8 wins, 7 loses, eliminated from playoff contention
My opinion:
With all due respect to everyone who was nominated ealry on, I can help but think some GM’s are missing from this list. Neal Wintermute is the defending SFL champion and has his Minnesota Vikings once again in the playoffs. Norbert Huszti is a former champion and has his Baltimore Ravens in a position for home field advantage and first round playoff bye. Kevin Mullendore, I believe was on the Hot Seat but ended winning his division and has the Jets primed for a playoff run. Anthony Fernandez is fighting for a first round bye without his starting QB for the past six weeks. I, have the Bucs in position to potentially have home field position and first round playoff bye.
My Winner:
I am doing it again, I am pulling a homer move and choosing myself as GM of the year. I am choosing myself over Anthony Fernandez who would have been write in vote because I was able to have such a successful season with purposely using young QB Christian Hackenberg as the Bucs starting QB over star Kirk Cousins. Through the first 15 games, Cousins started only 5 of them. Cousins is only 31 years old and is signed for 6 seasons after this one so the move was a risky and maybe even confusing one. What the Bucs were able to do though, is help progress Hackenberg while saving a healthy Cousins for the playoffs. They were also able not to have keep banking progression points for Cousins. The way the Bucs won was also able to keep both QB’s happy. Cousins currently has a morale rating of 93 while Hackenberg has a moral rating of 100. I will be honest, I knew the New Orleans Saints and GM Nate Jones as well as the Atlanta Falcons and GM Garth Pearce would both be fielding top notch teams this year while the Carolina Panthers and Brad Barber would be rebuilding the Gardner Minshew led Carolina Panthers. In order to stay with Tampa Bay long term, if that’s what I do, I knew I would have to bring in a young QB at some point soon. I decided to roll the dice and try to progress a young QB and win while doing it. I got lucky and was able to do exactly what I had hoped so that is why I am being a homer and voting for myself. Hate me if you must.
Playoff Prediction
Here is how I think the 2019 SFL playoffs could pan out:
NFC
1st round bye- #1 seed: Chicago Bears
1st round bye- #2 seed: Tampa Bay Bucs
Minnesota Vikings over the Washington Redskins in the wild card round
Dallas Cowboys over the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card round
Chicago Bears over the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round
Minnesota Vikings over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the divisional round
Minnesota Vikings over the Chicago Bears to go back to the SFL Bowl
AFC
1st round bye- #1 seed: Tennessee Titans
1st round bye- #2 seed: Baltimore Ravens
San Diego Chargers over the Cleveland Browns in the wild card round
New York Jets over the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild card round
New York Jets over the Tennessee Titans in the divisional round
Baltimore Ravens over the San Diego Chargers in the divisional round
Baltimore Ravens over the New York Jets to go back to the SFL Bowl
SFL Bowl
Minnesota Vikings over the Baltimore Ravens which means back to back championships for Neal Wintermute.
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