With an off night before the draft along with some...interesting trades being made, I figured we could take a look at some of the more head scratching deals so far throughout the off-season. This is not meant to rip on anyone, rather serve as analysis and a breakdown of value from one persons point of view. Without further ado...
Browns Send:WR Quincy Morgan
Texans Send:2.9
Perhaps there is another part to this trade that I am missing, and there is another trade between the Texans and Browns that occurred, but they happened five days apart so I am not inclined to think this was a two part deal. So with that said, I have a hard time seeing how Morgan is worth a top ten 2nd round pick. Taking a quick look at my draft board, I have six wide receivers with a 2nd round grade, and I think they are all a good bit better than Morgan. Fit the system says there are 27 WRs with 90 SPD/ACC at 6'1", and brings up the very comparable
Dez Whtie who is still available in free agency after the pre-draft rounds. Again, maybe there is something I'm missing here, but I think the Texans would have been better off giving up say a mid-3rd for Morgan rather than a top ten 2nd round pick.
Rating: Browns Send:CB Anthony Henry
6.14
Panthers Send:2.18
Man, the Browns are really on a roll this off-season trading their leftovers for 2nd round picks. Should we start an investigation into potential blackmail? Remember Breck and Wade, they will only keep extorting you for more if you give into their demands. Henry has great AWR for a 3rd year CB, but has just 88 SPD. Yes, he's 6'1" you say, but look at this WR class. These slow cornerbacks aren't going to be effective too much longer. I have to think the Panthers would have been better off drafting a more athletic guy with this pick and taking their chances they could develop him.
Rating: 49ers Send:2.6
4.11
Rams Send:1.32
MLB Courtland Bullard
I will start off with the disclaimer that, yes, the Rams actually get more draft pick points here than the 49ers do - by 10 points. Some might say that makes this a good trade for them. But there's long been a mutual understanding in these leagues between the trader-downs and the trader-ups that you are going to have to pay a premium in draft pick points to move up in the draft. The reason? Mid-round picks aren't worth near as much in these leagues as they are here as they are in real life. Starters are regularly found in the 3rd, 4th, even 5th rounds of the NFL draft - it's enough of a crapshoot that things work out that way. It's a much different story when you have 80-90% of the picture of a guy before selecting him to your team. And, the classes just aren't that deep, otherwise every team would be swimming in talent. The talent in the 4th round of this draft is not going to be good - maybe a couple teams will eek out a starter. But I have a hard time thinking it's worth moving down 7 spots out of the first round just to pick up a 4th round pick. Is that pick really going to be that valuable? I just don't see it - but surely now this will be the pick that hits on the draft gem.
Rating: Eagles Send:FS Brian Dawkins
Redskins Send:TE Freddie Jones
Bhawoh Jones
4.30
The Eagles did Brian Dawkins dirty here. The Eagles apparently decided they needed to gut their roster and move on from the future hall of famer. In a league where most safeties fall somewhere in the 84-88 SPD range, Philadelphia traded a 92 SPD/92 ACC/90 AWR S for an 80 SPD TE, a career backup, and a near 5th round pick. Yes, Jones is actually a pretty good TE for this stage of the league - as I put on my block before I traded him, his combination of speed and strength is unmatched throughout the league. But Jones is far from the best at his position like Dawkins is, and certainly not a future hall of fame player - his 33/388/3 line from last season will make sure of that. If you compare the best of the safety position (Dawkins, Ed Reed) to the best of the TE position (Tony G), you will see that Jones belongs nowhere near that conversation while B-Dawk is cemented in it.
Rating: Eagles Send:DT Corey Simon
7.3
Browns Send:2.18
Man, what does it take to stay in favor in Philadelphia? Simon put up 8 sacks for the Eagles last season and is only entering his 4th season, but apparently the team has other plans for the position. Meanwhile, the Browns have now been on the winning end of three trades on this list - do we have a nominee for most improve team yet? If you enter 70 SPD/85 STR/75 AGI/75 ACC into the Fit the System tool, you will find that only two names pop up - future hall of famer Warren Sapp and Corey Simon. While there is a good amount of DL talent in this league, many of the best still lack elite acceleration. That is something that Simon has, along with great speed and agility. He's not a nose tackle or an elite run stuffer for sure, and he is a bit undersized, but when you get an interior pass rusher with that kind of disruptive ability it can be a real asset to your team. 74 AWR after just three years played is also quite good for the position. If the Eagles are able to find anywhere close to his level of talent more than half way through the second round then props to them, but I would wager a large sum of money that will not be the case.
Rating: Cowboys Send:3.2
3.3
4.16
49ers Send:1.32
And we officially have our first repeat asset of the article, as pick 1.32 makes the list twice. As pointed out in the trade section, Dallas sends 585 points according to the chart while the 49ers send 590. I already covered the pitfalls of relying strictly on the chart and not expecting an overpayment when trading down, so I won't beat a dead horse here. But I will certainly be revisiting this one personally after draft day to see if having the three players the 49ers will be drafting will be worth the talent the Cowboys are able to find at 1.32. My initial prediction is that the Cowboys will be able to land a sure-thing future starter in the 1st round, while the 49ers might be able to find a starter at the top of the 3rd if they commit serious time and development to them, but likely won't land a long-term starter from any of the three picks.
Rating: Did I get any of these wrong? Which ones did I miss? Make your case in the comments below!