With the second week behind us and being halfway through the first quarter of the season, I thought it would be fun to look back at the previous two seasons and see how first quarter records impacted a team?s chance to make the playoffs. I get that we only have two seasons under our belt, so these stats will change as the league ages. None the less, I still feel these stats are interesting to look at.
Note: Because ties were such a rare occurrence, I just counted them as losses to keep the data clean. Also, this data is clearly not a perfect indicator if your team will make the post season, there are a lot of variables that will determine that.
Playoff appearances by first quarter records (combined 2002-2003 seasons):
- 14% of the teams started the seasons with a 4-0 record, with 88% of those teams making the playoffs.
- 22% of the teams have started the seasons with a 3-1 record, 57% of those teams made the playoffs.
- 23% of the teams started the seasons with a 2-2 record, with 40% of those teams making the playoffs.
- 25% of the teams started the seasons with a 1-3 record, with 13% of those teams making the playoffs.
- 16% of the teams started the seasons with a 0-4 record, with 0% of those teams making the playoffs.
Quick Observations:
- Not surprisingly, teams that start off with a perfect record have the highest chances of making the playoffs
- If you start the season winless, then chances are really high you won?t be making the post season and should start thinking about the future. However, there are always outliers and I wouldn?t be surprised if a team goes against this trend at some point.
- Teams that have started 0-2 this season don?t fret too much, even with a 1-3 record you still have a chance of making it to the postseason.
Data: Combined Totals (2002-2003)
4-0 Record: 9 teams (8 teams made it to the playoffs):88%
3-1 Record: 14 teams (8 teams made it to the playoffs): 57%
2-2 Record: 15 teams (6 teams made the playoffs): 40%
1-3 Record: 16 teams (2 teams made it to the playoffs): 13%
0-4 Record: 10 teams (0 teams made it to the playoffs): 0%
If you have any other insights, please share in the comments below. Thanks!
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