I thought it would be a cool idea to play coach for a moment. I know of lot of the Madden AI can be aggravating to endure sometimes. So Lets look at one particular scenario. I will break it down to the fine details. Then I hope to get most of you to either vote or post your option in the forum thread below.
We enter the game in the fourth quarter. You are trailing by 4 points. Its second and goal at the 1 yard line. 23 seconds remain on the clock and you only have one timeout remaining.
Now before you decide I want you to weigh in these details. Weather is not an issue. Neither is field conditions. The opposition is an above average run defense. You have a above average running back. You have an above average Quarterback and the opposition has an above average pass defense.
Now going into the game you have the following stats at your disposal.
#1. Running the ball at the 1 yard line gets a 50% success rate. 45% stuff or loss of yardage and 5% chance of a fumble. Also Running the ball at second down if not successful, will eat the last remaining timeout. This in turn will only allow for one more play whether it be a run or a pass.
#2. Passing the ball at the 1 yard line gets a 50% incomplete pass, 48% completed pass for the win and a 2% chance of an interception for the loss.
Also, passing on second down allows you to keep the timeout giving you the option now for 3 total plays instead of 2.
So using the information provided what would you do with the game on the line! Remember 23 seconds on the clock and 1 timeout. Would you try and run it in as its so close and gives your team a pretty sure chance of a second play? Would you try to pass the ball getting pretty equal chance of succeeding and more opportunities in theory?
I would love to get a large response here and then I will chime in after for a reveal comment!
Now for the Reveal
As I was travelling back from the barren frigid wasteland called my work site. Listening to Sirius Satellite Radio. A topic came on about Pete Carroll and whether he should get into the Football hall of fame. Some argue that his call in Super Bowl 50 against the New England Patriots was the biggest Gaff in history. Also the reason he should not get into the hall of fame. Annie Duke former professional poker play and probability expert explained this situation clear enough that without the proper information it certainly looked that way. I was amongst the majority that agreed with public opinion. But when you look at the percentages, which I took from the NFL stats category and are very accurate. I did a little rounding for my article but nothing to sway from the truth enough to affect a decision. So after all that new information I determined that his call was actually the right one. Passing on that second down would give the Seahawks the best chance to win. The only thing Pete Carroll did not have available to him was the fact the New England Patriots actually practiced that play. They never preformed it during a game and therefore was no game tape to go off. The other interesting thing was the fact that the lowest percentage play that could occur did. 2% chance that an interception would happen is about as bad as luck as you could get right there.
So looking at the comments below.
Bryan posted he would run. His thoughts were strictly about Madden. Which was good because I tried my best to disguise it. I am curious at what percentage success the HB toss would be in Madden, I would guess around 70% as he seemed pretty sure about it.
William Cook actually called it perfectly. I wonder if you say, one yard run if he automatically thinks about that Super Bowl. Though maybe you can get off 2 pass plays after burning that timeout. That is more up for debate then Passing first though.
Travis said he thought the data was inaccurate. In Madden it probably is.
Tyler picked correctly also by choosing pass. He strikes me as a big analytics guy. Though he did add in real life and Madden he would run.
Tom brought up another good point. The PI call. I did not even think about that. So that was cool.
Lastly it looks like the league was split on the choice. 8 GMs picked Run and 7 Gms picked pass. So maybe it was not such an easy call after all.
Thanks to all that participated!
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