Miami Dolphins vs.
Washington Redskins
Injuries: Dolphins: None, Redskins: CB Champ Bailey (Out), DT Dan Wilkerson (Out)
SFL History: The Dolphins and Redskins have only played once, a 17-10 Dolphins victory in week 12 of last season. GM Daren Roberts has never won the AFC East but is 5-1 in the playoffs. The Redskins have made the playoffs three straight years and have a 3-2 record (0-2 prior to this season).
This is a very tough game to predict. The Dolphins come in remarkably healthy and if the Redskins were as well I think they would have the edge. But they will once again be without CB Champ Bailey and believe that is enough to swing things the Dolphins way.
The Redskins have had a great season and GM Mellon has done a great job holding things together, and overcoming a secondary that has been without its best corner to reach the Super Bowl. Surprisingly, they enter this game with the #29 ranked pass defense. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead frequently in games, as Super Bowl teams typically are. It is interesting that the one time during the second half they switched to Colts playbook, they lost to the Eagles in a shootout. But I also think they were fortunate to have a very soft second-half schedule (only team ranked higher than #20 was SF with backup quarterback) and faced a less than full strength Packers (Redskins were behind when Favre left game) and Panthers (no HB) in the playoffs. So we should pay particular attention to how the Redskins beat the healthy Bears in the wild card round. The biggest factor in that game, was the 'Skins secondary rose to the occasion and picked off Kerry Collins four times, including one pick-6. I believe they will need a similar performance against Tim Couch and the Dolphins if the Redskins are to win - probably a +2 or better in turnover ratio for the game. Considering the Redskins had a league-high 36 giveaways this year (Dolphins just 24), including a league-high 17 lost fumbles, it would not seem likely. Or, is that more of an indication of the rain curse, as GM Mellon insists?
One final thing to consider is the idea of a 2004 "team of destiny." Did one of these teams either get hot at the right time or just seem to have things fall their way? Neither seemed to enter the playoffs on a roll, and both seem to have overcome some obstacles, or benefited from timing/schedule. I see this as a push.
In the end, the most likely scenario seems to be a fairly even turnover ratio, which as mentioned before favors the Dolphins. The Redskins do have an advantage at the quarterback position, but even there Couch has done at least as good of a job taking care of the football as McNair (INTs 12 vs. 15 on more attempts).
Final Score: Miami Dolphins 24, Washington Redskins 22
