My thoughts on each of the hot seat teams. No need to put me on blast. If you don't like it or disagree, that's fine, I'm not interested in arguing, countering or explaining my position. Moving along without comment is fine, and encouraged if you disagree. This article took a lot of time, I'm not interested in a pissing match. I'm just trying to provide analysis on what I believe is the most interesting concept in any Madden league, the GM contract.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
2002: 4-12
2003: 4-12
2004: 1-15
Wins needed for 2005: 6
The Jaguars have won only 9 games in 3 seasons since the SFL inception. Selling your assets is tough if you aren't able to make a quick turnaround. It's tough doing it when you have 2 years left on your GM contract. Jason Arnold is now at risk of losing his team and has to build back what he sold off, and then some. Luckily he has some assets left to put a team together to get him there, but squaring off against Peyton Manning twice a year ain't easy, so he's going to have to earn it.
2004 Offense Rank: 28
2004 Defense Rank: 32
Key Losses: DT Kris Jenkins, RE Tommie Harris, WR Sam Aiken, RB Marcel Shipp
Key Acquisitions: RG Kris Dielman, WR Santana Moss, MLB Shelton Quarles, LOLB Scott Fujita, FS Pierson Prioleau, CB Aaron Glenn
Draft Picks: 1.6, 1.9, 4.17, 6.1, 6.14, 6.21, 7.1, 7.24
It's been a pretty dormant off-season for the Jaguars, despite the recent trading of 1.1 in the deal for 1.6, 1.9 and Dielman. That is surprising considering the hole they need to dig themselves out of. Dielman is a very good OL and will join a very talented OL in Jacksonville. That should hopefully protect Eli Manning as he enters his sophomore season. I don't like the swap of Sam Aiken for Santana Moss. I'm of the belief that height matters and I view Aiken as clearly better than Moss. Aiken was also Jacksonville's most productive WR last year. Nobody bid on the Jaguars match eligible DT Kris Jenkings. This means he is now a free agent that will likely see some big money thrown his way after the draft. The 4 free agent signings should help Jacksonville, although some of them appear to be stopgap players until they locate long-term options.
Strengths:
OL, LE & DT1
Weaknesses:
RB, WR, MLB & SS
What I would do:
CB did not make the list of needs but it is a long-term need. They have a CB1 with Charles Tillman and CB2 is a long-term need but not listed above due to the signing of CB Aaron Glenn. They also signed FS Pierson Prieleau so they could sneak away with only having to address SS the rest of the way. LOLB was also a need until they signed LOLB Scott Fujita and with ROLB Akin Ayodele they're okay there as well.
My priorities would be RB, WR, MLB, & potentially CB. Safeties are typically less athletic than we are used to, so there shouldn't be a huge disadvantage by finding a higher AWR vet with not so much athleticism.
Eli Manning is a young, developing QB. There is a great OL being built in Jacksonville, and they should take some of the burden off Manning by leaning on a strong run game. With or without that RB upgrade, they need a legitimate target for Eli to throw to. Santana Moss isn't it, and Kassim Osgood hasn't cracked 1000 yards in his first 2 seasons thus far. MLB is the leader of the defense and definitely a significant need. I already touched on the long-term needs of the CB position. While it may not be needed now, with the Jaguars draft position they could strongly consider CB due to the array of good CBs this year. The same could be said for MLB as Shelton Quarles is a stopgap player for them.
With 1.6 and 1.9, it's not possible to fill 4 key holes. Shelton Quarles and Aaron Glenn are more bandaids than duct tape, but they allow the team to address those positions in the future if things play out correctly. I don't see any RB in the draft class worth drafting in the top 10. The benefit of this draft is that we know #1 is CB Brandon Browner and #2 is WR Matt Jones.
If Braylon Edwards is available at 1.6 I would take him in a heartbeat. As mentioned above, Eli Manning needs a legitimate target to throw to. If Edwards is not there, I would strongly consider moving back with the 1.6 pick. Jason has the 1.9 pick so they won't wait long to draft again and will still get an excellent player there. I would be looking to grab two later 1st round picks, or move back a few spots and pick up some other picks. It should be intriguing for teams to trade up. After Browner and Jones, there is Braylon Edwards, Alfred Fincher, Shawn Merriman, O.J. Atogwe, & Wes Sims. All are very, very attractive options.
The reason I would trade back from 1.6 is I don't see a player at 1.6 that the Jaguars need to have at a position that would significantly drop off if they traded back (unless Braylon Edwards is there). I still wouldn't use 1.9 on Mike Williams or Vincent Jackson. I'm just not in love with them, but some people are. I would use use 1.9 on a MLB as one of the top 3 will almost certainly fall. While they signed Quarles for the short-term, this may not appear to be an immediate need. However, when you're drafting here you want value in this pick, not a reach for a need. MLB is clearly a strong suit in this class and I would imagine most teams would be happy landing one of the top 3.
If the Jaguars trade back from 1.6, I would look to draft a CB or RB with the pick they acquire in that trade. Cedric Benson is pretty much the consensus #1 RB in this class and will likely go somewhere in the 20s, but he could sneak in earlier due to the lack of RB talent this year. After Brandon Browner, Antrell Rolle is arguably the next best CB but there are various views on this. Stanford Routt, Corey Webster and Travis Daniels are pretty similar and the Jaguars could likely get one of them by trading back while also obtaining other assets in the process.
If the Lions do hold 1.6, Braylon Edwards was my pick. But if they hold it and he's not there, I would take Shawn Merriman or O.J. Atogwe. I have to imagine Wes Sims would go in the top 5, and if not, Alfred Fincher could. Even if Fincher is there, I would still go with the clearcut #1 LOLB or #1 FS. The dropoff from Fincher to Beck or Thurman is much smaller than that at LOLB and FS.
Tennessee Titans
2002: 9-7
2003: 2-14
2004: 3-13
Wins needed for 2005: 6
The Titans had a winning season in the inaugural season but have since been stinking up the joint. They have made things interesting during the way. They have a rule named after their tanking that led to the selection of Philip Rivers, and the trading of Drew Brees (who was benched in pursuit of the #1 pick). It was a bit of Deja Vu to see Brees leaving town at the likes of Rivers. Now Gary Cohen is on the hot seat. Gary is known for his sometimes radical roster management, especially in the NAFL where we think "what the hell is he doing?" and "why does he need 2 franchsie QBs?" only to go on and win the whole damn thing. The hot seat has appeared to motivate Mr. Cohen.
2004 Offense Rank: 30
2004 Defense Rank: 26
Key Losses: DT John Randle, LE Kevin Carter, FS Lance Schulters, LT Jason Peters, RB Tatum Bell
Key Acquisitions: ROLB Peter Boulware, WR Terrell Owens, MLB Brian Urlacher, CB Brian Williams, SS Roy Williams, LE Jason Taylor
Draft Picks: 1.30, 3.13, 5.14, 7.2, 7.3, 7.6, 7.20
Gary Cohen has had a very eventful off-season thus far. It's clear that he is doing whatever he has to do to avoid being fired. They've lost some talent this off-season, but they've also acquired some star power. A ridiculous amount to be clear. Boulware will be worth the move only if he's moved to the left side. Owens gives Rivers a big time WR to throw to, Urlacher and Boulware would definitely give the Titans a very strong back 7 defensively and then today the team traded for Jason Taylor. What a defense! One glaring issue is that the Titans had a rough OL last year, Philip Rivers was the most sacked QB in the league and they traded one of their best, if not the best, OL they had in Jason Peters.
Strengths:
LB, CB, S
Weaknesses:
OL
What I would do:
I love what Tennessee has done. I think they have the ability to become a playoff team this year. Everything hinges on Philip Rivers though. And I think the most important aspect would be protecting him. He was the most sacked QB last year. How is that going to improve? They had Warrick Dunn in the backfield last year, so that won't change anything for them. They have Terrell Owens now, but he wasn't the missing piece of the puzzle. Had the Titans kept the 1st round pick they traded to Miami for Jason Taylor I would have used that pick on the best OL left in the draft, or traded it for a very good OL to protect Rivers. Unfortunately it appears the Titans won't be picking until the middle of the 4th round (unless they have some other trades in the pipe, which wouldn't be surprising).
Since the Titans don't have draft capital to draft or trade for OL, I would be hanging around in the middle rounds of the draft to see if a team is looking to unload a player for a bit cheaper than usual. Teams will fall in love with a guy and make these types of trades, or they may have drafted the player's replacement and no longer have a spot for them.
Aside from striking gold in this manner, they're going to have to hit the FA market and hope to find some help there. It's pretty dry though and the Titans may have to consider trading future picks to get the OL they need. It would be a shame to see the team acquire a bunch of studs over or nearing 30-years-old only to limp to a 6 win season to save their job. This is the type of roster you want to make a push with.
After OL, DL would be the next priority. This is an area that will likely need to be addressed in FA as they don't have draft capital. The Titans don't have a ton of cap space, $5.1m to be exact after the Jason Taylor trade. They could find some areas to cut some salary, like WR Kevin Dyson who is now the #4 WR and making $4.44m. They could cut 33-year-old TE Fred McCrary and save $3.08m. RE Carlos Hall is a RFA that received the $2.35m tender and no bonus so he could be a cap casaulty as well, the same would be true for 62 OVR CB Tony Beckham. If they do upgrade their DL, DT Chris Hovan could be a casualty and save them $2.39m with a hit of $2.4m. It wouldn't be a net gain but would help them now. I'm not a fan of DT John Thornton but he would be a trade off with his salary and cap hit, with both being $4m. If Gary decides the DT cap hits aren't worth it, he could save $12.22m with the above mentioned moves, giving him $17.23m worth of cap space to try to address their OL/DL in free agency.
Buffalo Bills
2002: 8-8
2003: 6-10
2004: 5-11
Wins needed for 2005: 6
The Buffalo Bills have slowly been regressing each year, and a lot of the blame could be attributed to QB play. Their .500 season the Bills had Drew Bledsoe at the helm. Statue Drew was traded in his age 31 season. It's hard to fault a team for wanting to unload a veteran QB before he retires, but that is exactly what led to the Bills current predicament. They traded Bledsoe to Denver for a collection of picks including the 1.04, which was then used to draft Rex Grossman. And therein lies the growing pains that led to Brandon Lindgren being a hot seater.
2004 Offense Rank: 29
2004 Defense Rank: 23
Key Losses: LG Ruben Brown, RE Aaron Schobel, MLB London Fletcher, DT Pat Williams, LT John Fina, QB Rex Grossman, FS Pierson Prioleau
Key Acquisitions: QB Steve McNair, WR Ike Hilliard, FS Lance Schulters, LE Andre Carter, LG Roberto Garza, RG Shaun O'Hara, DT Anthony Adams, CB Daylon McCutcheon
Draft Picks: 1.05, 2.05, 3.15, 4.05, 5.05, 5.15, 6.05
Brandon Lindgren has flip-flopped on his QB plan. He moved Drew Bledsoe at age 31, YP 11, only to move on from the QB they drafted to acquire Steve McNair at age 32, YP 10. It's hard to fault them for either move, to be honest. The clock is ticking on veteran QBs and you don't want to be left high and dry with no QB on your team. But when you're on the hot seat you can't blame a team for wanting a veteran QB with proven success. It's about saving your team at this point. I like the move for the Buffalo Bills, as long as they understand McNair will need to be replaced at some point. That day isn't coming right now, so I wouldn't be looking to draft a rookie QB. I'm not in love with Ike Hilliard, but he's a veteran WR on a team with rather unimpressive WRs, so he is a solid choice for them, for now. Trading London Fletcher made sense on a 4-3 team as they already have Jonathan Vilma. They swapped some players out on both sides of the OL but I'm not a fan of either OL or DL builds right now.
Strengths:
QB, MLB, OLB, CB
Weaknesses:
OL, DL, WR, SS
What I would do:
First off, they didn't put in a bid on Aaron Schobel as their match eligible. I would try to sign him back, although the FA pool is pretty thin and it could be costly.
With the 1.05 I would be looking for an impact player and preferably at a position of need. That so happens to line up for the Bills with WR and MLB. Browner and Matt Jones will be gone at 1.01 & 1.02. The question will be who goes at 1.03 to Arizona and 1.04 to Detroit. I think Arizona takes LOLB Shawn Merriman or FS O.J. Atogwe. He likes unique players that stand out from the rest of the league and those 2 certainly fit the bill. Wes Sims could even be considered there, but Tyler has been pounding the table saying he is the 3rd best player in the draft, which means it was likely a smoke screen; he wanted teams to bite on that and take him. At the time Tyler didn't have the 3rd overall pick and relied on his guys falling through a very tiny window to get to him.
If Merriman or Atogwe go, I would suspect Detroit takes Braylon Edwards at 1.04. Spoiler Alert: It's who I will be suggesting they take when we reach them. The Lions need a WR and are trying to trade WR Keenan McCardell. Cap problems or not, it creates a hole. I think Jacksonville should take Edwards at 1.06 and who I will say the Bills should take at 1.05 if he falls. If Browner, Jones and Edwards are gone by 1.05, I would give serious consideration to Wes Sims. OL aren't sexy picks, but he is clearly the best OL in the draft and the league is full of guys who aren't super strong AND athletic, like he is. With a veteran QB you can spend the time developing a young OL. It wouldn't have been a great scenario if the Bills still had Grossman.
Aside from Grossman, maybe take a stab at Mike Williams. I personally don't love him but some do and the Bills WRs are very weak in my eyes. There are no DL worth taking here, although RE Marcus Spears is very attractive. OL & WR are serious needs for Buffalo and that's where i would concentrate with this pick.
If I'm running the team, however, I would be considering trading back. As I said, I'm not in love with Mike Williams, so if you are this wouldn't be a scenario you consider. But in the event that he isn't your jam, you could explore trade back scenarios, allowing you to still draft a very good OL, just not the best OL of the class. Trading back from 1.05 and sticking in the 1st round, while also having 2.05, the Bills could definitely come away with 3 first round talents here. BUT they run the risk of not getting a WR if they trade back, which could be their priority, and honestly it would be one of mine.
This OL class is the deepest position group and that is certainly what I would be targeting at 2.05. I would enter the draft with the mindset that I'm going to get a starting OL at 2.05. The question is how many are we looking to upgrade? Brandon acquired RG Shaun O'Hara via trade, LG Roberto Garza through FA and has C Trey Teague returning. They should be looking at 2 starters to fill out their OL, both needing to be tackles with RT obviously being the priority. That could be found at 2.05, especially in a deep class. It's been done in weaker classes, so there's no reason it can't happen now.
One thing that definitely should be mentioned is they need to swap their OLBs and put the more athletic OLB on the left side.
Denver Broncos
2002: 9-7
2003: 9-7
2004: 8-8
Wins needed for 2005: 9
Denver has been hanging around .500 since the beginning. The good part about that is that the team has been average. The bad part about that? They have a steeper expectation to save their team. They need to get back to 9 wins whereas many of the hot seaters need only 6. Their offense was middle of the pack last year but it was their defense that really held them back the most. Even with Drew Bledsoe missing weeks 4-6, which led to 3 losses, the defense was in the bottom quarter of the league.
2004 Offense Rank: 17
2004 Defense Rank: 25
Key Losses: C Tom Nalen, CB Aaron Glenn, RB Curtis Martin, DT Keith Hamilton, WR Eddie Kennison
Key Acquisitions: MLB Jamie Sharper, CB Fred Thomas, DT Jimmy Kennedy
Draft Picks: 1.02, 1.23, 2.23, 3.24, 5.22, 5.24
Tom Nalen wasn't a significant loss. They made the ill-advised move to trade up into the 1st round last year to select C Nick Hardwick. RB Curtis Martin was more of a backup than a starter, although he started for the Broncos and that role is left unfilled. WR Eddie Kennison isn't very gifted, but had a role last year for the team that they will need to fill. Jamie Sharper was given a monster contract. I agree with the need to be filled, but I don't agree with the price paid. Fred Thomas is a smart CB but it's tough to start a 5'9" CB. And you can't tell me the height doesn't matter when this team in particular is drooling over who they're intending to draft with the 1.02 pick, in large part due to his height.
Strengths:
QB, WR, LE, ROLB
Weaknesses:
RB, OL, DT, CB, S
What I would do:
I disagreed with the idea to move up to 1.02 since it was announced. Everybody knows that Tom Riddell is aiming at drafting Matt Jones. I understand the reason why he would be attractive. But you have Drew Bledsoe, Anquan Boldin and Chris Chambers. Boldin has over 3,000 receiving yards the past 2 seasons. The Broncos had the 7th most passing yards despite Bledsoe missing 3 games. The passing offense is NOT the problem. Therefore, Matt Jones is NOT going to make the impact that they think he will. If anything it will take production away from Boldin in particular but also Chambers. There may be a slight uptick in passing production, but don't you want more of an overall improvement from the 1.02?
If I were making the move up, it would have to be for 1.01 for the purpose of drafting Brandon Browner. We know that he was going #1 to Jacksonville and now Arizona after that pick was traded. I don't think Matt Jones is the answer for Denver here. I also don't see anybody that I would take at 1.02 with the needs being what they are. O.J. Atogwe is great and the Broncos could use Safety upgrades, but I just don't feel that confident that any safetey is worth taking #2. There are very good OL in this class, so does one warrant being picked at #2? There are some other good CBs as well, but clearly not worth being picked here.
I would most definitely be trading down. I believe Tyler Richardson even mentioned publicly he would trade up to this pick. I would explore that or other trade offers. Leave the passing game alone. At 1.23 I would certainly be looking specifically at CBs, OL & RBs. While I like a lot of CBs & OL, if Benson is there he absolutely must be taken with this pick. There is a gaping hole in the backfield that there is no. Tom is moving LG Ben Hamilton to LG. He drafted C Nick Hardwick in the 1st last year and I think RT Matt Lepsis is fine. That leaves the team needing two OGs, which they should be able to find one in the later 1st, perhaps even in the 2nd round, although they're drafting pretty late there. By trading back from 1.02, assuming you're able to find a trade partner, the Broncos could fill many of their existing holes. They could target someone like RB Cedric Benson to fill that gaping hole in their backfield, patch up their OL and grab a CB to start after shrimp boat Fred Thomas regresses after this season.
If I'm the Broncos, I would be much happier coming out of this draft with my RB, 2 OL and a CB than I would 1 Matt Jones. Sure, Matt Jones is a stud. But do you need him? After all, you're on the hot seat here. You could very well be drafting a stud WR for the next guy. 9 wins isn't an easy feat.
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