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2005 SFL Mock Draft- Extended Commentary Picks 1-10
By Neal Wintermute
Special to sfl-football.com

2005 SFL Mock Draft

#1- CB-Brandon Browner
I think everyone knows what?s coming here. Tyler loves the tall CB. He?s demonstrated that with the like of Kevin King over in the MFL, who by the way is a fascinating comparison for Browner. I?m sure Tyler is thinking about the strong rookie season King had over there with 5 INT?s and 36 Deflections. King?s rookie season was definitely impressive, the question is ?Is Browner similar enough to King to have that same type of success??

Browner is 6?4?, King is 6?3?, so that?s a plus in Browner?s column. As far as Browner?s speed, agility, and acceleration (95 SPD, 91 AGI, and 95), they are off the charts compared to King (90 SPD, 84 AGI, and 90 ACC). So again another plus for Browner. However, there are some other attributes which are concerning. For example, King entered the league with 67 AWR, Browner currently sits at 55 AWR. King also entered the league with 59 CTH and 64 TAK. Browner currently sits at 59 CTH, and 48 TAK. So plus?s for King in both of those columns, catch being the same currently. It should be noted that King immediately received progression boosts of +2 SPD, +1 AGI, and +1 ACC. I have no doubt Browner will receive similar boosts. So they are definitely similar in my mind, but not the same.

I see this pick similarly to the way that Will Cook does, I think Browner is not the value pick that most think he is. I think that for the following reasons:

His progressible attributes are quite low. 55 AWR, 59 CTH, and 64 TAK are not the attributes of a star. His physical attributes are, but it will take some time to get his progressible attributes there.
Kevin King, his comp in the MFL, who is now at 93 SPD, 99 AWR, 86 AGI, 93 ACC, 66 CTH, and 68 but has yet to make the Pro-Bowl in four seasons. My point here is that there is no proof that a developed Browner with less progressible attributes than King is guaranteed to be a star.
Development will harder that most people realize. The Cardinals themselves are a low AWR team. See the WR?s on the offensive side of the ball. It is always assumed that it will be easy to develop players, but a GM can?t develop them all. I prefer my first round picks to not need much in development. Admittedly, that?s a personal preference.
Will the skew be positive? Typically in these leagues when you see someone too good to be true, he typically is. Meaning he is likely to skew down in speed and or acceleration. Now he may skew up in progressible attributes which would be a help.

Bottom line the pick is obviously going to be Browner, but I think there should be more caution around him than there currently is. He should be a top 10 corner in this league in 5 years, but getting there will not be easy and it will take a ton of effort.

#2- WR-Matt Jones
Matt Jones is a tall WR with speed and that?s pretty rare in the SFL. Even more rare when you consider Matt Jones is 6?6?. The Patriots Clarence Moore is the same height but with 90 SPD and lower acceleration although he had better AWR coming into the league. Probably a closer comparable would be WR-Kassim Osgood of the Jags although Jones will have a little more awareness and one more inch in height. Osgood was taken early in the second round of the 2003 draft. He?s had two solid but unspectacular seasons with the Jags though to be fair he?s had a young QB throwing to him.

The point here is that I feel like Jones is a slightly better version of Moore and Osgood and and they were taken at 1.27 and 2.4 respectively. So is he worth 1.2? I?m leaning toward a no. In fact, I would prefer Braylon Edwards here if the Broncos choose to go WR. I think Jones value is probably more in the 1.15-1.20 range due primarily to his lack of AWR and what I think could be a skew down in athleticism.

Will Tom pick Jones here? I think so. But he loves drama so he?s throwing around Merriman?s name now. Which in my mind is the far superior player to pick here. Plus the Broncos defense is the reason they could be looking for a change at the GM position. So I hope for the Broncos? sake Tom is serious with the chatter about Merriman, but I don?t think he is.

#3- OT-Wes Sims
Generally speaking I try to follow the offseason moves of teams as they happen to get a feel for what they are doing. Not so with Cardinals. With the Cardinals I just wait until the dust settles right before the draft, because honestly doing anything else is just exhausting. However, the Cardinals are clearly in a better position than they were headed into the offseason. They have accumulated a ton of picks and have done it in a way I?ve never seen before. They have also taken the strategy of drafting physically elite, low AWR players on both sides of the ball. This strategy is part of what makes the SFL draft classed great because in most leagues you don?t have the super high athletic guys who lack key progressibles but not so here in the SFL. I think this strategy by Arizona is actually really risky and it could bite them. Olinger and Carter, the two key WR?s for the Cardinals are perfect test cases. Both really lack the AWR they need to be successful in my opinion, though Olinger could possibly get there. In fact, I would say that right now WR-Drew Carter is on the verge of being a draft mistake 1.4 last year. If the Cards were a veteran team with one or two low AWR players, that?s one thing, but they are not so I question the Cards vision here. It could still work but I?ve very skeptical at this point.

OK on to the pick. I?m pretty sure, Tyler understands the value of a Wes Sims here. In fact, I believe he has stated that on Discord and/or the forums. So I think he goes here since the Cards next pick as at #8 and they need to grab a MLB there. Sims would be an excellent choice. He?s strong, athletic, and has good blocking skills for a rookie. He lacks a little AWR but the Cards have a high tolerance there so I think Sims goes at #3.

#4- WR-Braylon Edwards
I think overall Brad doesn?t really care about height in his receivers or in his CB?s. I think it?s especially so with the CB?s. However, he did have WR-Corey Fuller on the MFL Steelers so WR's with height are of some value. Having said that, the type of CB he likes is probably a little early to go here, so I think he addresses the need at WR with Edwards. Edwards is much more ready to play than Jones and could actually be the SFL?s version of Corey Fuller with less speed. I actually think that Edwards is one of the underrated players in this draft. I think he?s a better short-term and long-term player than Jones. And I think he compares favorably with what I think is an overhyped Mike Williams (only caveat being I haven?t done any scouting on him).

When the Lions made a bold but I think good move in trading for Michael Vick, I think they set themselves up to get to 6 wins this season assuming they can make a few key moves which they are well on the way to doing. My only hesitation with having the Lions choose Edwards here is that I think the Brad thinks his WR?s are actually pretty good as is. If he really does believe that he could go another direction. When push comes to shove, I think Edwards upgrades this team more than any other player available.

#5- OT-Jammal Brown
As with several of the teams drafting in the top 10 the Bills are on the hot seat. Incidentally as we have seen this new feature play out it has been pure brilliance on the part of the league. It has added another component to the Madden experience and has forced to teams to put out their best teams instead of perpetually playing young players. Kudos to the league staff for this!

Back to the Bills here. They spent a second to acquire Ike Hilliard, which was probably a little rich but not egregious. The bigger deal the Bills made was acquiring QB-Steve McNair from the Redskins which was a good move for the Bills for at least the next four seasons. I would anticipate that they resign him this offseason. If they don?t, or let him get to EFA, I guarantee a max contract will come his way, so it?s best they just resign him. As far as the pick goes, the Bills need a LT and a RT. Brown fills one of those needs brilliantly and he ready to go from day one. Great AWR, PBK, and RBK. He?s not real athletic, but he?s passable. It would be interesting to see if Sims made it to here, if the Bills would take Sims or Brown. But I don?t think that scenario plays out, so the pick here should be Brown.

#6- OLB-Shawn Merriman
First things first. Great job by the Jags of trading down from 1.1. They need multiple pieces to make this work and turning one pick into two top ten picks is going to help the team be better this year and for years to come. Assuming Shawn Merriman slides down to here I think that should be the pick for the Jags. I don?t remember a team with a worse LB core than the Jags had last season. They have replaced two of those starters. It wouldn?t be a bad idea to replace the third. The other option for them to go should they choose to feel good about their current ROLB would be CB. They need a #3 for sure, and maybe a #2 depending on what they think of Glenn. I think they prefer a guy like Webster over Rolle, but if Merriman is here I definitely think they should go with him.

I agree with Jason?s thinking that offensive line is the last place they need to address. Now that line is going to struggle a little still particularly at the tackles where the awareness needs to be a little higher. But they?ve invested in good quality players there. The only thing that needs to happen is for those players to progress. A draft player is not going to help to upgrade the Jags line, only a trade for a veteran could do that.

#7- OT-Todd Herremans
The M.O. of the Seahawks is to sit at their draft spot and grab some insanely athletic player and then make the rest of the GM?s feel stupid for not drafting that player. In this draft I think the Seahawks could do that with one of two players: FS-O.J. Atogwe or OT-Todd Herremans. I think it?s an interesting choice who they will go with. Atogwe is the more athletic freak but Herremans is a more foundational piece. My guess, based on previous experience, is that Rock will go with Herremans.

Herremans has great speed plus great agility. Rock never shies away from low awareness guys, though being on the hot seat may cause him to think twice. Why I think Rock would be fine with Herremans is that Hasselbeck is a veteran enough QB to keep the sack numbers down fo Herremans while he progresses. So while it?s a tough decision, I think the Seahawks go Herremans over Atogwe based on the position he plays and the athleticism he possesses.

#8- MLB-Alfred Fincher
If the board were to play out this way, I have to think the Cardinals would love this. In fact, I?m sure if you asked Tyler right now if he could walk away with Browner, Sims, and Fincher he would take it in a heartbeat. Honestly, I think he will do that. I just think that?s the way this draft looks to shake out. Fincher lacks awareness and tackle, but he?s a physically gifted player with 90 AGI, and 90 plus ACC. It?s exactly what Tyler likes in a LB. Now I do think Tyler would prefer that he be taller, but those types of guys aren?t in this league at this point.

There are two other MLB?s in this draft and if Tyler wants to get greedy and doesn?t like Fincher all that much more than the other guys, he could trade back. Heck, Tyler might just trade back to grab someone else?s first round pick next year, which I?m sure one of us will give him. Or he could just trade down to trade. I?m sure Breck would be happy to trade with him again. They announce trades with the same excitement and regularity as the Duggar family announces the birth of a child. But assuming for now that the Cards stay put I think they get Fincher at 1.8.

#9- FS/SS-O.J. Atogwe
Back to the Jags here again at #9, which is again why it was a good idea to trade out of 1.1. I think the Jags can do much better at the safety position, whether it?s FS or SS. Atogwe is still on the board and I see no reason not to take him here. He?s probably more suited for the FS spot due to his average tackling skills, but the need might be more at SS with the recent signing of Pierson Prioleau. Wherever they put him, he would immediately upgrade their secondary, which is where I think they make it or break it this season.

#10- MLB-Odell Thurman
The Rams are sitting here at #10 and if this scenario plays out like I think it does, they would love it. To me Thurman is one of the best players in this draft because he?s ready to play immediately. Sure he doesn?t have great size and only good not great athleticism but you have to wait on the other guys to get it together. Thurman is going to be able to play at 99 AWR and 99 TAK much longer than the other players in this draft because he is simply closer to begin with. It might be tempting of the Rams to get QB-Kyle Orton, but he doesn?t help this team right now. Thurmans does though. If I were the Rams, I would definitely grab Thurman here.
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