You didn't ask me for my opinion, but I'm going to give it to you anyway.
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Detroit Lions
2002: 2-14
2003: 4-12
2004: 2-13
Wins needed for 2005: 6
It's been a rough 3 seasons in the motor city. They started off the 2002 season with Mike McMahon and Ty Detmer at QB. Really, who could blame them for struggling with those QBs? They then drafted QB Byron Leftwich and like Buffalo, they struggled to develop him. Now they're on the hot seat and making moves very similar to the Bills in an attempt to stay afloat for at least another year.
2004 Offense Rank: 31
2004 Defense Rank: 28
Key Losses: QB Byron Leftwich, C Dominic Raiola
Key Acquisitions: QB Michael Vick, RB Duce Staley, SS Mike Minter
Draft Picks: 1.4, 2.21, 3.20, 4.31, 5.4, 6.4, 6.19
The Lions haven't lost much this off-season. Typically we see a lot of turnover, especially with a team on the hot seat. But the Lions are standing pat and hoping that their big move of swapping Byron Leftwich for Michael Vick is enough to turn the tide. Losing Dominic Raiola was minor as he had taken a backseat to Jeremy Newberry. They also have the luxury of a top 5 draft pick.
Strengths:
QB, OL, DL, LOLB, MLB, CB1
Weaknesses:
WR, CB, FS
What I would do:
For a team that has struggled, I'm hard pressed to find many holes. Actually, I found a lot of things that I like here. They moved in on Michael Vick and I would imagine they will be switching him to 'Balanced'. Duce Staley is a good RB for now but won't be a long-term option, and that is fine. The OL is pretty strong, I'm not a huge fan of RG Maurice Williams but the rest is strong. I like both of their DTs and while the DEs are not my favorite, they've both been productive. They also have a strong LOLB, MLB and CB1.
This is all extremely positive. I think the Lions are smart for not rocking the boat too much this off-season as they have a lot of good pieces to the puzzle. With 1.4 I would be targeting Braylon Edwards. If the Broncos come to their senses and pass on WR Matt Jones, and he somehow passes the Arizona Cardinals at 1.3, I would suggest Jones there as a possibility as well. Vick's 2 best receiving options are Derrick Mason and Dez White. Neither of these guys strike fear into any opposing team. Vick certainly has the talent, but the scrambler/balanced type could be a hindrance, so you want to provide him with as good of a supporting cast as possible.
At 1.4 I think it's Braylon or bust. I don't love Mike Williams as I've already mentioned in the AFC Hot Seaters. It would be fun to see the Lions draft him as they did in real life. His workout would have to be favorable for him to go this high. If Matt Jones and Braylon are gone, I would try to trade back. The next biggest need is CB and Browner is the clearcut #1 overall choice. If Browner, Jones and Braylon are gone, I would suggest trading back and targeting the #2 or #3 guy at the WR and/or CB position, without much of a significant dropoff, pay a lower salary and acquire additional picks in the process.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2002: 10-6
2003: 8-8
2004: 8-8
Wins needed for 2005: 9
The Bucs are in a similar predicament as the Denver Broncos. They haven't been awful, but find themselves on the hot seat due to no improvement. Middle of the pack is better than a cellar dweller, but NFL owners are impatient. The Buccaneers have had QB Brad Johnson running the show for them, despite the surprise 1st round selection of Tony Romo that has not panned out and is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. Brad Johnson has retired and Paul Criswell's career in Tampa Bay is one of the most threatened of all the hot seaters.
2004 Offense Rank: 22
2004 Defense Rank: 21
Key Losses: QB Brad Johnson, ROLB Derrick Brooks, MLB Shelton Quarles, WR Joe Jurevicius, RG Casey Coleman, RB Michael Pittman
Key Acquisitions: QB Marc Bulger, QB David Carr, LOLB Dwayne Rudd, WR Antonio Bryant, TE Chad Lewis, C Ryan Pontbriand
Draft Picks: 2.12, 5.17, 6.17, 7.17
The loss of Brad Johnson is going to be very difficult to overcome for the Buccaneers. They're putting their eggs in the basket of David Carr and/or Marc Bulger, both of which have some development to do and have struggled to date. They lost 2/3 of their LB core, 1 of which commanded a huge contract (Derrick Brooks). They designated Joe Jurevicius as their match eligible and received a huge offer from Atlanta that nets the Bucs a future 1st. They also lost their top RB. They did snag Rudd, but he is not going to replace Brooks. Antonio Bryant is liked by several teams, judging by the number of times he has been traded for high value, which still surprises me, but for some reason he can't stick around anywhere. I think Tampa is operating at a net loss this off-season.
Strengths:
WR, DT1, RE, CB1
Weaknesses:
QB, RB, RT, MLB, ROLB, CB2
What I would do:
I listed RT as a weakness, but there is some talent here. I like LT Bo Lacy. I think LT Kirk Chambers could make an impact, perhaps as a guard. RT Kenyatta Walker isn't bad, but I don't think he's well suited for a RT position due to his AWR and having to protect 2 young QBs who are going to need as much help as they can get. Pontbriand is super athletic as well.
Simeon Rice is a waste as a RE. Once position changes open up he should be moved to LE immediately. Pairing him with Warren Sapp would give offenses some headaches. FS Jermaine Phillips I think is the most talented FS on the roster, I just wanted to make sure I got that in.
First and foremost, the Bucs should look for a veteran QB. I don't think either Carr or Bulger are the answer, despite trading a 1st in a package for Bulger. But if they're intent on sticking with these QBs, they need to support him. My primary focus would be on RB & RT, lean on the ground game and keep the pass rushers off the QBs. There is a lot of youth on the OL, so I would be targeting a veteran RT over 80 or 85 AWR. Michael Pittman is still a free agent. I'm not sure why he was let go but I would be looking to bring him in, or someone like Curtis Martin, unless they were able to snag a legitimate RB with the 2.12 pick.
The next biggest need would be MLB, the captain of the defense, followed by CB2. There are a lot of needs on the team and few draft picks to obtain them. If I'm Paul, I'm bargain shopping right now. The $13.7m cap space is going to make that difficult. However, there are a bunch of turds that can be let go to clear up a significant amount of cap space: CB Brian Williams ($6.08m), LE Marco Coleman ($5.87m), FB Mike Alstott ($3.44m - I like him, but that's a lot to pay to a FB on a team with much more significant needs), RT Earl Dotson ($3.41m), C Jeff Christy ($3.39m), and RE Corey Smith ($2.35m). That would clear up $24.54m in cap space and leave them with $38.24m available space. That would give them a significant amount of flexibility to take on some higher priced contracts and would just need to come up with assets to trade for them.
Philadelphia Eagles
2002: 9-7
2003: 6-9-1
2004: 6-10
Wins needed for 2005: 7
The Eagles are an interesting team as they're one of the few teams on the hot seat that has had a stable QB all along. The Broncos had Drew Bledsoe for 2 of their seasons, but the Eagles have had consecutive losing seasons even with Donovan McNabb. Part of the issue is probably because they're in the division with the defending Super Bowl champions. Bryan put his tail between his legs and dealt Steve McNair to develop a young QB so he doesn't provide proof that it was a fluke year. It's not unheard of, as that is exactly what happened with the Ravens after they won the Super Bowl in 2003 and missed the playoffs in 2004. Just kidding Bryan... but the Redskins will have some ups and downs and will not be the same ole thorn in Philadelphia's side, which could help Leo keep his job.
2004 Offense Rank: 11
2004 Defense Rank: 29
Key Losses: LE Derrick Burgess, WR Marty Booker, WR Az-Zahir Hakim, DT Jimmy Kennedy, LOLB Ike Reese,
Key Acquisitions: DT Bryant Young, ROLB Jesse Armstead, CB Jason Sehorn, C Andre Gurode, FS Keion Carpenter, LOLB Willie McGinest, CB Deshea Townsend, MLB Courtney Watson, CB Andre Goodman
Draft Picks: 3.22, 4.1, 4.6, 4.9, 5.3, 6.30, 7.13, 7.14, 7.30
It's been a very busy off-season for Leo. The biggest loss would have to be Derrick Burgess. For as skilled as he is, Leo wanted to give his young LE Antwan Odom a crack at the job and switching to a 3-4, which allowed Leo to pair Courtney Watson with Landon Johnson. Az-Zahir Hakim has been talked about numerous times in league circles but never seemed to produce. The losses don't seem to be very major and the Eagles brought in several veterans to boost their team. Their defense was their achilles heel last year and it looks like that's where their focus was thus far.
Strengths:
QB, RB, MLB,
Weaknesses:
WR2, NT,
What I would do:
The Eagles don't have many early picks, so it's a good thing they don't have many needs to fill. I think 7 wins is very practical for them. They could probably tinker with their OL a little bit. After losing Marty Booker, they're lacking a solid #2 WR behind Maurice Mann. Bobby Wade could be that guy but 5'10 speedsters haven't seemed to produce here. With the team switching to 3-4, I expected the Eagles to have acquired a big, strong NT and I'm not seeing one. That is a player that could probably still be had in FA as there aren't a lot of teams running a 3-4. And I may have a different view on this, but I've sought after big, strong DTs for the NT position in a 3-4. Someone like Kris Jenkins could be perfect, but I'm sure he would command a big payday, so the Eagles would need to clear some space to make that happen. There are a couple of other guys that fit the bill as well, or maybe someone like Jonathan Babineaux in the draft. I'm not sure if he would be available in the 3rd, but someone to consider if he is.
I would also target someone like Terry Glenn or Donald Driver in free agency. Again, they could cost a few bucks so they would need to clear some space. My primary focus in the draft would be to use the private workouts to identify some hidden talent, like they did with Mann. If they can find a couple of solid starters on the OL in the draft that would be best.
Seattle Seahawks
2002: 7-9
2003: 6-10
2004: 5-11
Wins needed for 2005: 6
One of the best personalities in the league, Rock Hewko hasn't been very visible since the SFL launch. That may be why his team hasn't turned the corner by now. He usually boasts a very competitive team, but is on the brink of losing his team at this point after 3 consecutive losing seasons and trending in the wrong direction.
2004 Offense Rank: 21
2004 Defense Rank: 31
Key Losses: ROLB Chad Brown, WR Bobby Engram
Key Acquisitions: ...
Draft Picks: 1.7, 2.7, 3.7, 4.7, 5.7, 6.7, 7.7
Rock hasn't made any improvements to his team this off-season. They have no trades and did not participate in free agency. Rock is behind the curve on getting his team back on track. Someone wake him up! Luckily the talent they lost was not vital to the team's success.
Strengths:
QB, RB, WR, OL,
Weaknesses:
DL, LOLB, FS, SS
What I would do:
I didn't list CB as a weakness but that could easily be a position that Rock is looking to upgrade. The offense should be in good shape. With Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, some talented WRs and a very good OL, there's no real reason the offense isn't productive. My focus would be on fixing the defense, which also happened to be the weaker unit last year.
At 1.7 I would be hoping that FS O.J. Atogwe or LOLB Shawn Merriman fall. I would even consider moving up to make sure I got one of them. Not only does Rock love physical freaks like these guys, but they're also at positions that happen to coincide with 2 of the Seahawks biggest needs. I don't see a DL, other than Marcus Spears, worthy of an early 1st round pick, and I would argue that he isn't worth going in the top 10.
I prefer Merriman, but if Atogwe was the pick, the Seahawks could move last year's 2nd round pick, Richard Seigler, to the left side to plug that hole. I still would prefer Merriman despite this. If both of these players are gone, I would strongly consider drafting a CB. With Browner, Matt Jones, Atogwe and Merriman gone, that leaves 2 more players before the Seahawks pick. It's likely that one of them is Alfred Fincher, which means the Seahawks could have a shot at the #2 CB in the class.
Rock is also known to draft players that he doesn't necessarily have a need for. BPA is the best strategy if you can afford to take this approach. I would imagine a MLB would be of interest here as well. If I had 1.7 though, Merriman or Atogwe are my targets, with CB as a secondary choice and MLB as the fail safe.
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