Miami Dolphins (1-0) @
New York Jets (1-0)
What's at stake: The last time the Dolphins came to New York (week 8 last season) they thumped the Jets, handing them their worst loss of the season. The Dolphins went on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. One of these two teams has made the playoffs each of the last three seasons (both teams made the postseason in 2003). One team has swept the other each season as well, with the winning team eventually making the playoffs each time while the losing team made the playoffs as a wild card just once. So clearly the games between these two teams not only tell us a lot about who the better team is, but are critical to any dreams about the playoffs.
When the Dolphins have the ball: The 2004 Dolphins were a young team with just the right mix of veterans, but the offseason saw many of those veterans leave. The 2005 Dolphins are even younger, more inexperienced, and it will be interesting to see if it results in a step back of any kind. While OVR doesn't mean anything toward the outcome of a game, it can be a good overall indicator of a player's awareness and other progressable attributes. Interestingly enough, the Dolphins' starters have the lowest average OVR in the league currently at 82.4. While they may also see small declines in play at corner and the defensive line, I believe the inexperience will show up most on the offensive line. They are extremely athletic at guard and tackle, but also extremely raw with an average AWR of 64, average PBK of 80, and an average RBK of 82.
The Jets appear to have improved an already good defense everywhere except at corner, where the loss of Donnie Abraham to free agency creates a significant void. Though they have seven cornerbacks on the roster, Starks is the only one with decent awareness and significant starting experience. The ability of the Dolphins offensive line to protect Tim Couch and give him time to throw will go a long way in determining who wins the game. Couch should have some open receivers as well as some size/speed mismatches to take advantage of if given the time to find them.
When the Jets have the ball: The Jets were incredibly balanced on offense against the Chiefs last week, with 244 yards rushing and 240 passing. The additions of HB Michael Turner and RT Pete McMahon gave the Jets' running game a huge boost, though the Dolphin defense should be a much better test of how much so. If New York can get the running game going early it will allow Plummer to use play action effectively, get the ball out quickly, and possibly force the Dolphins to cheat a safety into the box - all of which play to Jake Plummer's strengths. However, if the Dolphins get out to an early lead or slow down the Jets running game with just their front seven, the Jets could be in for a long day. The Jet receivers are neither exceptionally fast or big, and the Dolphin secondary is very good, regardless whether Asomugha or Madison is playing corner.
Prediction: This is a very tough game to call as each team is very good and has a path to victory. It will likely be close the entire way, with multiple lead changes, and wouldn't surprise me if a late field goal wins it. A last minute victory just seems more likely by Couch, who has already proven capable, than by Plummer, who still needs to prove he can do so against top teams.
Dolphins 26, Jets 24