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Breaking Down the League Cap Situation
Notes:
- This article will look at the cap situation for teams across the league. Teams have been separated into tiers depending on the overall picture. To do this I have created a value of cap space per player each team would need to add to their roster to reach the league average of 51 players from last season. Of course some teams won't need that many players - the Steelers skirted by with the minimum 45 while the Cardinals had 46.
- I was not able to come up with this number for teams with negative cap space. This created an interesting situation where teams with a "0" number ranked better than teams with positive numbers. That's because teams like the Falcons and Jets have negative cap space but need no or very few players to reach the average.
-I know many teams have probably made moves already that will affect these numbers. I could only work with what I had. Obviously this won't be entirely accurate this early in the off-season
Tier 1 - Seahawks, Packers, Eagles, Patriots, Broncos, Texans, Vikings, Chiefs, Giants, Bills
These teams are all in excellent shape at this point in the off-season. All of them have over $20m in cap room right now, and only two teams need 10 or more players to get to the league average roster size last season.
The Seahawks are the clear leaders here with over $38m in cap space and just 7 players needed to reach the average roster size last year. They could spend over $5m per player they add to their roster and still fit under the cap. A big reason for this is they only had $2.84m in cap penalties last season. They do have two players making over $9m, but their next highest player makes $4.43m.
The Green Bay Packers are almost equally impressive, although one big reason for this could be that they don't have a star QB on their roster right now with the retirement of Brett Favre. The fact that they could spend $4.95m per player is all the more impressive when you figure that they had $12.9 in cap penalties last year. This is because their highest paid player makes $6.99m this season, and they are only paying 3 players more than $4m.
After those two teams, two more groups emerge. The Eagles, Patriots, and Broncos could spend over $3m per player to reach their expected roster size, while the Texans, Vikings, Chiefs, Giants, and Bills could spend over $2m. It's interesting to note that the Patriots and Vikings are the only two teams in this tier who made the playoffs last season - both were the number one seeds in their respective conferences. Well done Neal and Travis. The average 2005 cap penalty for these teams was less than $10m at $8.94m.
Tier 2 - Saints, Raiders
Here in Tier 2 we have just two teams. These teams stand apart because while they don't have a lot of cap space, they also have practically full rosters. Both teams currently have 49 players, which is technically enough to field a team. In fact at least a few teams did so last year with less men. Another thing these teams have in common is that they had less than $5m in cap penalties last seasons, with the Saints amassing only 800k. Clearly this has put them in good standing this year. The Raiders are paying more top tier talent with 4 players making over $7m, while the Saints have their salaries spread out more with their second highest paid player making $5.13m.
Tier 3 - Browns, Chargers, Ravens, Dolphins, Panthers, Colts, Falcons
These teams in the third tier are in okay standing cap wise - not good, but not great. The Falcons are actually in the negative right now, but they also don't need to add any more players to their roster. This means they probably have a couple guys they could cut and easily get under the limit. For all other teams, they can afford to pay each player they add $1m or more on average. This obviously is not ideal, but it is well within a workable range. These teams used, on average, just over half of the allowed cap penalty last season at $12.56m. The highest cap penalty of the grouping is the Cleveland Browns who carried a penalty of $24.97m.
Tier 4 - Jets, Bears, Buccaneers, Cardinals, 49ers, Redskins, Bengals
Now we are entering the danger zone. These teams are either cutting it real close or are in a bit of trouble. Every team in this tier can afford to pay the players needed to reach the league average roster size last season less than $1m on average. At the bottom end of the tier that number is just 270k on average for the Bengals. Obviously, they are going to need to shed some salary at some point, as will every team in this grouping most likely. Despite that fact, the Bengals are the clear outlier here cap penalty wise as they only carried a penalty of $3.74m into this season. The group average is $13m. The Bengals issue appears to be more player salaries, with Justin Smith commanding $14.99m this season and Levi Jones $10.22m.
Tier 5 - Steelers, Jaguars, Lions, Cowboys, Rams
Lastly, we have Tier 5 - the red lights should be flashing for these teams, and they should know they have some serious work to do to be cap compliant. The Lions and Titans are probably the best situated of the bunch here, while the Rams and Cowboys have a lot of work to do with an average of 12.5 players needed with both teams having negative cap space. The Steelers and Jaguars stand out as having the smallest roster in the league, with both having only 30 players under contract. This presents an interesting scenario for the Steelers as I believe they have 0 draft picks at their disposal this year. One reason for the cap woes among these teams is clear - their average cap penalty is $16.82m. The Cowboys seem to just like expensive players, as they were the most well behaved of all the teams in that regard last year, with less than $10m in penalties counting against their cap number. Their average player salary right now is $2.74m. The Titans pushed the cap penalty limit last year with over $24m, but are actually in one of the best positions of this bunch. You can bet this group of teams will have some tough decisions to make before the start of the pre-season.
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