1.1 - WR Brandon Marshall - As has been the case possibly every year now, 1.1 is locked and loaded well before draft time. WR Brandon Marshall will be the pick here barring any shocking developments in Detroit. The 6'4", 230 lbs, 99 SPD WR has all the tools to be a superstar in this league, and puts the rest of the NFC North on high alert that they better have their pass defense ready for the Lions explosive passing attack.
1.2 - OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson - Word on the street is that the Saints have been shopping this pick for quite some time but have yet to find any suitors. It's doubtful that is going to change in the final hours before the draft, so it appears New Orleans is going to have to stay put and take the player they feel is the best on the board. There's probably at least three or four different players you could make a case for here, which is probably the reason for the lack of interest, but in the end I think a player like Ferguson will just be too hard to pass up. He will give young QB David Greene rock solid protection for over a decade.
1.3 - QB Matt Leinart - The Chargers made the surprising move of trading star quarterback Chad Pennington effectively for this pick and QB Jeff Garcia, so it will be interesting to see what they do with it. To me the only logical option would be to hit the reset button and take the next SFL star quarterback in USC product Matt Leinart, despite the fact that San Diego now already has two elite quarterbacks on their roster in Garcia and last year's mid-season addition QB Kerry Collins. The good news for them however is that veteran quarterbacks always hold their value, and their should still be a robust market for their services, especially if Panthers QB Mark Brunell is now staying grounded as has recently been rumored. This pick may mean the Chargers are hitting the reset button, but with the high skill level of Leinart entering the league it won't be long until they are ready to compete for the division once again.
1.4 - WR Corey Rodgers - There has been some discussion in Houston as to who exactly the best wide receiver on the board would be in this scenario, as Todd Watkins has creeped into Top 10 consideration lately, but I think it's fairly safe to say this pick will be a wide receiver no matter what. The Texans have found a pair of young quarterbacks to compete for the starting job this off-season and surrounded the eventual winner with a star running back to ease the burden. Now they will look to add a star receiver to the mix. It is entirely possible GM Wade Pearce could shock the league by taking Watkins here, but in the end I think the speed/height combo of Rodgers wins out.
1.5 - OLB AJ Hawk - Early indications were that the Chargers were thinking about taking Hawk 3rd overall, but with the choice to draft Leinart the Ravens eagerly grab him off the board. OLB may not be the biggest impact position here for the Ravens, but Hawk is easily one of the best talents still on the board and should fit perfectly into Baltimore's 3-4 system while filling a huge need. Something was missing on defense last year in Baltimore, and the loss of OLB Peter Boulware was probably a big part of it. Fans will be thrilled to see the team bring in another physical presence off the edge.
1.6 - CB Marcus Maxey - I think if Matt Leinart makes it to this pick the Buccs will have to think long and hard about grabbing their quarterback of the future here, but with the Chargers surprisingly taking him third overall they will have to look elsewhere. When looking at the Buccs roster it doesn't take long to realize that cornerback is one of the biggest needs on their team. Maxey might be a bit of a reach here with only 53 AWR, but he has all the tools to one day be a star. While I might be tempted to take a guy like Tye Hill here due to his higher AWR, the Buccs have the time to develop Maxey while they build their team, and the payoff should be worth it in the end.
1.7 - OT Quinn Ojinnaka - I hate to sound like a broken record, but I still consider the Seahawks to be the most ideal landing spot for Ojinnaka, and I also consider him to be the most ideal tackle for them considering he will eventually be the best one taken in this class. Seattle's current cornucopia of talent and experience along their offensive line allows them to bring the talented but raw tackle along slowly until he is ready to unleash his full potential on the right side.
1.8 - MLB Leon Williams - Despite missing the playoffs last year the Colts still have a very talented roster that I think could easily find themselves atop the AFC South once again next year. A player like Williams manning the inside of the defense could go a long way to making that a reality. Williams has great size and is also extremely athletic. He would take over for the accomplished but diminished Gary Brackett and also save Indy a boat load of cash.
1.9 - WR Maurice Stovall - Where Leo goes with these picks is probably going to be one of the biggest mysteries and perhaps surprises of draft night. With his first pick I agree with the prevailing consensus that he will grab one of his coveted tall wide receivers in Stovall despite having already brought in 4 new receivers already this off-season. It's not a bad pick either, as he will instantly become the top target for whoever plays QB in Carolina this year, while also being a plus in the run game at 220 lbs. He is a bit raw entering the league, but has immense potential.
1.10 - CB Tye Hill - It's quite possibly that a LT or OLB will be the pick here, but I think the Panthers might opt for a more impact position such as cornerback with the 10th pick. If a guy like Marcus Maxey were still on the board there could be some debate here as to which player to take, but with Maxey in Tampa the choice is clear. Hill may be just 5'10" but he gives the Panthers complimentary piece they need in their secondary.
1.11 - OT Marcus McNeil - The Vikings traded away their RT Wade Smith earlier this off-season which now leaves them with a big hole there. Lucky for them OT Marcus McNeil has slipped out of the top 10 where GM Neal Wintermute is waiting to eagerly snatch him up. McNeil is a mammoth OT at 6'7", 336 lbs, which along with his elite athleticism should go a long way towards easing any concerns GMs may have with his STR rating. He will have to endure a position change if the Vikings plan to play him at RT, but that shouldn't be a huge issue considering he is one of the most advanced in that department as is.
1.12 - OLB Thomas Howard - The Bengals have positioned themselves very well with this pick after trading away star OLB Takeo Spikes this off-season. Howard is one of the most talented players in this class but has fallen out of the Top 10 due to a combination of lack of need, position importance, and his overall lack of polish. But other teams loss is Cincinnati's gain as they land a beast of an OLB 12 picks into the first round. His elite combination of size, strength, and athleticism should prove to be a handful for opposing offensive coordinators.
1.13 - DE Darryl Tapp - Another extremely talented player who seems destined for a round one slide is DE Darryl Tapp. There is even talk in some league circles that he may fall out of the top 20 picks. I have a hard time seeing that happen, especially with a DE needy team such as Seattle sitting here at pick 13. While I have been hesitant to mock a guy like Mario Williams here with GM Rock Hewko's tendency to value a high STR player at this spot, Tapp actually presents the best of both worlds with a great deal of strength AND athleticism. Many will question his low AWR rating or say his length could be an issue (which it may be), but his overall repertoire of skills is ultimately too good to pass up.
1.14 - MLB D'Qwell Jackson - The Patriots seemed destined to make a non-sexy pick here, and I think that's just how Patriots GM Travis Robbins likes it. There is a pretty big hole developing at MLB and Jackson seems to be just the player to step in and fill it. While he doesn't have the same shiny athleticism as a guy like Leon Williams, his ability to play from day one is a big plus for New England, a team that doesn't need an elite physical talent at this spot. There's also a couple lineman I could see them taking here, but I don't think they want to wait until pick 31 to grab a MLB in this draft despite the depth at the position.
1.15 - QB Charlie Whitehurst - After the Buccs missed out on Leinart in the top 10, they land their quarterback of the future just inside the top half of the round. While Leinart is the more polished player from day one, there's actually a case to be made that Whitehurst could be the better player down the road. I think he brings great value here with the 15th pick, as this if the type of QB we saw coming off the board Top 5 just a couple off-seasons ago. The Buccs continue to draft based on potential and position themselves well for the future.
1.16 - OT Ryan O'Callaghan - The Falcons have not been in any hurry to make big moves this off-season. They have actually made 8 trades so far, but in 6 of those deals the highest draft pick that exchanged hands was a 4th round pick. While they did add an OG to the offensive line in free agency, they still have a pretty big hole at the RT spot. I would be surprised if they head into the season with Matt Stinchcomb as their starting RT considering their pass first offense. Enter RT Ryan O'Callaghan, a 6'7" 344 lb giant with 99 STR and good if not great athleticism. I would usually consider him to be more a LT than a RT, but either way he still represents a huge upgrade over what they have at the position currently.
1.17 - WR Todd Watkins - The 49ers two starting wide receivers are both 33 years old, which means it's definitely time for them to start looking at who is going to replace them in the future. WR Todd Watkins is someone who has been mentioned as a Top 5 pick, and while I don't think he's that good there is no denying he has a good bit of talent. His height/athleticism combination is still pretty good, and he is by far the most polished receiver to come off the board to this point. He should give the 49ers young quarterback Kyle Orton a new shiny weapon to throw the ball to for a long time to come.
1.18 - DE Mario Williams - Mario Williams is another supremely talented defensive player whose draft stock has taken a hit due to concerns over this ability to step in and play from day one, but I think the LE spot in the 4-3 is one of the easiest positions to come in, stick your hand in the dirt, and just try to tee off on the quarterback. That makes him an ideal fit for the Broncos here who have seen a dearth of production at the position from an aging veteran over the last several years. He will struggle against the run at times, but the upside is phenomenal for a player taken this late.
1.19 - RG Davin Joseph - The Bengals just traded up for this pick, so it will be interesting to see if they have a specific player in mind they are targeting. They don't have a ton of immediate needs on their roster, especially after taking OLB Thomas Howard 12th overall, but offensive guard is definitely one of the positions I think they could use an upgrade at, even if it's not a typically coveted position. Joseph is one of the best and most polished offensive line talents in the draft, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him be the first non-tackle of the board. The Bengals could also look to take a receiver here, but I think anyone would they take would only be the 3rd best on their roster.
1.20 - SS Roman Harper - Despite finishing last in the NFC North last season, the Bears are a team with few pressing needs. I had originally mocked them a cornerback here, but they need playing time to progress and I don't currently see that opportunity in Chicago. The biggest hole I can see on their team is at SS. With picks both at 26th overall and in the early 2nd the case can definitely be made for them to address that position later on, but if they wish they can use the opportunity here to get their choice of any safety in the class. To me that means they will be taking SS Roman Harper, who at 6'1" has elite strength for the position and is a polished athlete. He may not have the speed that some GMs desire, but I think he would be a great fit in the Chicago defense.
1.21 - CB Antonio Cromartie - Despite having a good number of holes on the roster, this feels like a luxury pick for Philly. Why? I don't know. Maybe it's just deceiving now that Breck is in charge, or maybe it's because the Eagles actually have the luxury of selecting from any number of positions here this late into the game. Breck had a history with taller, less athletic cornerbacks in Carolina, but a player like Cromartie here would give him the best of both worlds - a 6'2" CB who has the potential to be quite athletic as well. Even if Cromartie does skew down in SPD, one would think that based on the type of CB Breck employed in Carolina that wouldn't be a quite so bad worst case scenario.
1.22 - MLB Abdul Hodge - After terminating the services of MLB Jamie Sharper this off-season due to his inflated salary the Broncos are left with a fairly big hole there. Lucky for them this class is deep with talent at the position. That allowed them to wait on pulling the trigger on a player like Hodge at 1.18, but here at 1.22 he makes a lot of sense for them. Like D'Qwell Jackson he won't be the most athletic linebacker in the league, and some will be turned off by his relatively small stature, but with 68 AWR/85 TAK he should be able to make an impact from day one.
1.23 - LG Max Jean-Gilles - Kevin has used his plethora of picks to position himself with three picks in a row here, and there is little doubt he is going to land three very good players. While the best players and the premium positions have already come off the board, there is still a ton of talent to be had elsewhere. We all know that the Jets love to run the ball and play smashmouth football, and there's perhaps no guard better suited for that in this class than Max Jean-Gilles. At 340 lbs with great strength and solid athleticism, he can both move his man off the line of scrimmage and get out in space and run you over. If he makes it to this pick I would be shocked if he's not a Jet by the time the Bears are back on the clock at pick 26.
1.24 - CB Jimmy Williams - It doesn't really matter what order we go with this picks, does it? The Jets might not be in immediate need for a cornerback, but I think the opportunity to draft someone like Jimmy Williams here is too good for them to pass up. They've had a lot of success with CB Rashard Anderson at the position and that appears to be the floor for a player like Williams. Like the Comartie pick to the Eagles, I think the worst case scenario of a skew down in SPD with one of these guys is much more palatable if you've already had success with similar players at the position. His 54 AWR is not ideal, but we are nearing the end of the 1st round now so it is somewhat to be expected.
1.25 - OLB Chris Gocong - Finally (for now), the Jets get to work replacing the players that they sent to Philly in the deal for 1.3. Kevin tends to love size and strength in his linebackers, and Gocong has both in spades even if he lacks the elite athleticism of a guy like Thomas Howard. This isn't a flashy pick for sure, but Cocong brings to the table exactly the kind of muscle the Jets love in their front 7.
1.26 - WR Miles Austin - The Bears are back on the clock after taking a safety with the 20th pick, and are again looking to fill one of the few needs on their roster. While SS was probably their biggest need, I think they could also use an upgrade at the wide receiver spot despite spending a high pick on Vincent Jackson last year. Austin has just about everything you would want in a receiver except for polished route running, but that is something he can work on. Otherwise his combination of height, athleticism and strength makes him a great option for Chicago here, and he should prove to be a great complement to Jackson.
1.27 - OLB Jamar Williams - This is probably one of the biggest surprises of the this mock for many GMs, but this is a deep OLB class and not a ton of teams have a huge need there. The Giants are not one of those teams however. Both of their OLBs lack any kind of athleticism, which is exactly what Williams brings to the table, even if he is a bit undersized and not the strongest player. His speed and ability to cover TEs should be a huge upgrade for this Giants defense.
1.28 - SS Tyrone Culver - The Cowboys have had some fairly glaring needs at their safety positions for a while now, and this is the perfect draft to address those positions. Culver is my 2nd ranked safety in a very deep class, and the Cowboys I'm sure will be thrilled to land him with this pick. His STR isn't quite at the elite level of a player like Roman Harper, but it isn't far off, and Culver has great athleticism to go with it. He will need a bit of development before really taking off, but will for sure be an upgrade in Dallas.
1.29 - FS Anthony Smith - Like in Dallas, the safety position has often been ignored in Carolina. This is the perfect spot for the Panthers to address that issue. Like Harper and Culver Smith has a really nice combination of length, strength, and athleticism, although his TAK rating will need a good bit of work. Regardless this is a good value pick at this spot and a great way for the Panthers to cap off a solid first round.
1.30 - CB Josh Lay - The Browns have been pretty clear that they really aren't looking to draft players this year as they need to win now. Like, right now, before they get fired. With that in mind it's very possible this pick could be traded before they are on the clock on draft day, but if not I think an athletic cornerback makes a lot of sense. It gives them a player who can still contribute at the nickel or dime role this season and also a player for the future considering both Rolle and Barber are getting up there in age.
1.31 - OLB Manny Lawson - It definitely speaks to the depth of the OLB talent in this class when the Patriots can land a player like Lawson with the 31st pick. While he doesn't have the strength some GMs will want for the position, his combination of size (6'6") and athleticism is off the charts. He should be a legitimate chess piece covering tight ends even if he might get out-muscled in the run game from time to time.
1.32 - MLB Stephen Tulloch - There's probably not a more fitting team to cap off the end of the first round then the team that had three picks in this stage of the draft. With so many picks the Jets can afford to go off the reservation and pick the best player available, which is exactly what they do here taking Stephen Tulloch. I'm sure Kevin is not going to love his 5'11" stature, but besides that one flaw Tulloch has attributes of a Top 15 talent. The Jets really don't need him (at least for now) considering they already have two talented veterans at the position, but I don't think Kevin can pass on a player of his caliber at this point.
