2006 Preseason Power Rankings1. The Patriots made it to the Super Bowl and fell short to the red hot Arizona Cardinals. They were the top team in the AFC last year and I think it's fair to assume that will be the case this year too. They have a great team and didn't mess with the recipe much, so there is much less risk associated with them.
2. The Bengals just barely fell short in the AFC Championship Game and it came right down to the end. They had an excellent 2005 campaign and there's no reason to believe they won't be at or near the top again in 2006. They did have a few difficult decisions to make to get under the cap and may be a little younger, but this is a very strong team.
3. Coming off an 11 win season, the 2nd consecutive double digit win season for the Vikings, they didn't mess with the winning formula. They swapped out Eddie George for Tatum Bell, DT Darnell Dockett for Corey Simon and replaced their RT with a talented rookie. It was a wise, low-key off-season for Minnesota.
4. The Raiders had a surprising slump that really tanked their season. It seemed to align with the injury to CB Charles Woodson, but that could have been coincidental. I expect them to be back on top of the AFC West this year, and they reloaded with the acquisition of QB Chad Pennington and RE Jevon Kearse, who I assume will line up at LE and torture offensive lines.
5. Yes, I believe the top 2 teams in the NFC are both in the NFC North. The Lions came to play last year and had a great season. They ended up trading for 1.01 and I don't really feel they overpaid to make that move. WR Brandon Marshall and his ridiculous size and athleticism can only bolster the passing attack. This division will be very interesting this year.
6. The Falcons were on an unprecedented run last year scoring 40 or more points in 6 of their first 10 games. Those 6 games were all wins with another win coming from a game in which they scored 38. The 3 losses they failed to crack 20 points. They cracked 30 points in 2 of their remaining 6 games and came crashing back to reality. It remains to be seen if the disappointing end to their season was the real version of the Atlanta Falcons.
7. They were right there with the Patriots for much of the season and were the best wild card team of 2005 by far. I initially had them ranked at #3 but dropped them down. They've shaken the team up and gotten really young on their OL. That may very well pan off, but there is a bit of risk associated with them right now, more so than the teams above them that didn't really mess with their teams a whole lot.
8. I think the 2005 season was a fluke. Peyton Manning had a great year but these guys had 0 running game and a defense that just failed them. Their defense, on paper, isn't bad and I'm chalking 2005 up to a bad year. I'm not putting a ton of weight into what happened last year and I think they're going to be the favorites in the AFC South.
9. It probably seems strange for the defending Super Bowl Champions to be listed at 9 on the pre-season power rankings. It's not throwing shade at GM Tyler Richardson, but more to do with the Cardinals having a fantastic finish. Can they pick up where they left off? If so, they will be one of the top teams in the NFC. But they had -22 net points on the regular season, so I'm tempering expectations for now.
10. Tooting my own horn here. After a disappointing 2005 season that saw us miss the playoffs after an upset in week 17, the offensive line was blown up again. The top two WRs from a year ago are gone and some big investments were made to get higher AWR players to help them win now. Anything short of adding 2 years to the GM record will be considered a failure.
11. The Chargers traded their starting QB Chad Pennington and RE Jevon Kearse to move up to 3 to grab rookie WR Cory Rodgers. That's a big shakeup for a 10 win team from a season ago. Luckily they have a stopgap QB in Jeff Garcia and another starting-quality QB in Kerry Collins. I expect the Raiders to be the best in the AFC West, but the Chargers shouldn't be too far behind.
12. I think Breck turns this team around much quicker than I originally thought. He brought in Eli Manning and paired Jon Olinger with Maurice Mann. He has a good OL, DL, LBs and secondary. I can't pinpoint a weakness in this team and I think they come away with the AFC East title. It's going to be a tough race in this division.
13. The Rams are clearly built to win now as they have a lot of aging and expensive talent. Drew Brees did well for them last year. Sigh. They have weapons on offense, an OL and a strong defense. They're not really weak in one area. The AFC West could prove to be a difficult division this year and we could see these 4 teams beating up on each other.
14. With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger I think the Cowboys will do enough to reach the playoffs this year. It is a tough division though as the Giants clearly overperformed last year and the Redskins have benefitted from several trades that allowed them to bridge the talent gap. The Cowboys need to strike now before the Redskins and Eagles continue to improve.
15. The Titans had a big season last year, but they have traded some of the guys away that helped get them there. Gone are MLB Brian Urlacher and ROLB Peter Boulware. They traded them off to acquire the 1.01 pick which they almost immediately flipped to Detroit to grab CB Lito Sheppard and DT Marcus Stroud. They blew up their OL and still don't have a starting RB. I love when Gary makes a big splash. If you trade a lot it provides opportunities to get a deal done, or opens new doors as a result of that move. If you don't trade much, it should at least keep things interesting during the off-season. Cohen has made these types of moves several times before but he still ends up winning, no matter how far off the beaten path he travels.
16. The Ravens are gearing for the future with QB Charlie Frye as the 36-year-old Jeff Blake is most likely going to retire next year. It's a great time to do it as they have a very good OL, RB and defense to help them put Frye in a position to win. They didn't make a lot of moves this off-season and it appears that they're happy with their current roster build.
17. The Packers lost Brett Favre to retirement but were able to snag Jake Delhomme to avoid a full rebuild. Delhomme isn't bad, but he isn't great either and I don't think he will do enough to put the team over the top. They had Ricky Williams that they could've leaned on but swapped him out for Clinton Portis who is good, but not that same grinder that Williams is.
18. As mentioned above I feel like the Giants way outperformed their ability last year. They relied on Tiki Barber and a defense to carry them as Matt Schaub simply was not good. I don't think the defense was as good as they played either and the team didn't make a lot of moves to make many improvements, instead banking on the success to carry over this year. I don't think that happens and believe they will regress to the mean.
19. I was very confused with the Jaguars off-season. A 2nd year Eli Manning had a fantastic campaign, but it wasn't enough and he was shipped to Philadelphia in exchange for Donovan McNabb who counts exorbitantly more against the cap. They have no RB, only 4 WRs and 2 total CBs on the roster. Post-draft FA is looking WEAK. I can't help but see a big downturn this season.
20. The Bills have a good roster and I think they could surprise some teams, but I would like to see some success before we bump them up the list. They've only won 17 games over the past 3 seasons. It can happen, we've seen it before, but will it be 2006?
21. Do we think Rock knows he's on the hot seat? He asked about it again this off-season but I couldn't tell if he was trolling. He has good bones to his roster but I just don't know if he's involved enough to get them up higher. I respect Rock and know he's certainly capable if the motivation is there.
22. If it weren't for Kyle Orton still developing the 49ers would be higher on this list. It's still going to have it's ups and downs. In a weaker division I think the 49ers would turn some heads, but it's going to be a mess in the West.
23. It looks like a rebuilding project after a bad cap situation, although the addition of QB Kurt Warner will definitely make them competitive in the short term. Their defense looks good, but they've got no offensive playmakers whatsoever. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers shop Warner mid-season when things don't go as planned.
24. The Redskins moved on from Steve McNair after winning a Super Bowl and have been developing Rex Grossman. He's still developing and has a ways to go before the Redskins will be true contenders. The overall roster is still strong, as evidenced by their Super Bowl win in 2004. Despite rolling with Grossman last year they still won 8 games, and made the move to roll with the shorter shelf-like beast in RB Ricky Williams and managed to get an impact LE Jason Taylor for peanuts. I think they're going to do well this year, but this division is strong.
25. The Dolphins saw some regression from their 2004 Super Bowl season and failed to reach the post-season with a 7-9 record. Their raw, low STR OL may have played a role in that. GM Daren Roberts appeared to be tired of Tim Couch and ready to move on, but could/would not absorb the large cap hit and continues to roll with him. The team is strong and I like a lot of their players, evidenced by all the times I attempt to trade with them. But the AFC East houses 2 of the best teams in all of the AFC, it's a tough fight.
26. This is the biggest fall for a 2005 playoff team. There's just been too much turnover this off-season with the Panthers making 23 different trades. The saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" will not apply to Carolina. When you have a successful team, each trade is a risk as there is usually a winner and a loser. Trades are rarely perfectly even. So when you make 23 of them, the chances of messing up the winning recipe are too great for my comfort level.
27. I think the magical end to the Chiefs 2005 campaign was a fluke. The Raiders limped to the finish line after having control of the division while Kansas City won 5 of their last 8. That looks like a strong ending to the campaign, but I think there is more to it than that. Their 3 losses came against playoff teams while 4 of their wins came against teams ranked 24th or worse. The only win above that mark was against the Giants during their 4 game skid to end the season and who I pegged as overachievers.
28. Alex Smith took over in 2005 when the Bears decided to start the rebuild after extending their GM contract. It's a wise move as it's going to take time to develop a young QB. He did well and put up some surprising performances, but rookie QBs are not going to be consistent week-to-week. He still has a lot of room to grow and the Bears are ranked toward the bottom with the other teams that don't have QBs that aren't yet ready to compete.
29. There is a resemblance to the bottom teams, they all have unproven QBs. As always, it's a QB driven league. Wade Pearce is rolling with QB Dave Ragone after moving QB Brian Griese. The addition of LaDainian Tomlinson will help, but I don't think the improvement from Thomas Jones to Tomlinson bridges the gap from Griese to Ragone.
30. It's clear that Bill Ryan is rebuilding the Bucs. They're going to take a bit to get going with Matt Leinart at the helm. They lost Keyshawn Johnson to FA and traded away Antonio Bryant. They've got some holes to patch up, but the life of a rookie QB is pretty rough and there will be growing pains.
31. Olivier is working on turning Jim Sorgi into a starting QB. He's still a sub-70 AWR QB as his throwing accuracy was pretty low and was prioritized first. He was a big project starting out at 60 AWR, 77 THA and there's still a long road ahead.
32. The Saints are coming off a 4-12 season and traded away QB Jake Delhomme this off-season and plan to start David Greene. I'm not a fan of that idea. I can't see an improvement to the team when the most important position has been downgraded.