AFC East1.
New England Patriots
2.
New York Jets
3.
Miami Dolphins
4.
Buffalo Bills
Analysis: The AFC East is a very competitive division, possibly the toughest in the league. Last year's prediction was right on for all four teams and I actually don't see any changes for 2006. The Patriots have made few changes which isn't a bad plan when you finish 14-2 the previous year. I really want to pick the Jets to win the division in 2006 as I think they match up better against the Patriots then they have in a long time. The Patriots lost 30+ awareness at safety, Beasley and Ruben Brown have started to regress, and Brad Hopkins is slower than Drew Bledsoe. Still, until the Jets show they can beat the Patriots, it's New England's division to lose. As close as the Patriots and Jets will be, the Dolphins and Bills will be equally so. I can see them both finishing around the 8-8 mark with the deciding factor being their head-to-head games. The Dolphins big splashes were bringing in legit top-level linebackers at all three positions and amassing four 1st round picks for next season. Even a regressing Warren Sapp is an upgrade at DT as well, but Darwin Walker was a good player. The Dolphins still lack experience at safety and offensive line, and I'm not sure LaBoy (still looking for his first career sack) or Jordan (4.40ypc) are the answers at LE and HB. The Bills were handicapped by a lack of draft picks. The addition of CB Shawn Springs is significant and should help Buffalo's secondary a lot. Dunn is a minor upgrade over Travis Henry at halfback, and replacing the now-retired FB Lorenzo Neal (64SPD) with a more athletic option to run ahead of Dunn was a good move. The Bills are hoping those additions and a shuffling of their offensive line will significantly improve their running game. They may be right.
AFC North1.
Cleveland Browns
2.
Cincinnati Bengals
3.
Pittsburgh Steelers
4.
Baltimore Ravens
Analysis: Like the AFC East, this division will likely have two teams fighting for the top spot and the other two teams fighting for third place, though the spread between the top-two and bottom-two in this case may be as much as 6-8 games. Hard to say who comes out on top, it really could go either way, but both teams should make the playoffs regardless. However, I think the Browns take the division this year, possibly via tiebreaker. Not counting the week 17 game, the Browns only lost to one team outside the top-10 last season, and I think they have done enough this offseason to at least split with the best teams in 2006. A ridiculous 30 players from last year's team are no longer on the roster. But when you comb through the mess, they made significant upgrades at receiver (Owens, Ward, Bryant), free safety (Milloy), and halfback (McGahee and Foster), with only minor losses on the defensive side of the ball and fullback. However, if Drew Bledsoe has trouble staying healthy, all bets are off. After winning the division, the Bengals took more of the Patriots' approach and made far fewer changes this offseason. Again, not a bad plan when you have a good team and division title, but I believe the Browns took big strides toward closing that gap. The Bengals made three significant moves, and while Howard (ROLB), Tapp (RE), and Jennings (WR) will be very good players - likely better than the very good players they replaced (Spikes, Smith, and Housh) - they won't be at that level in 2006. The Steelers and Ravens are both in the process of rebuilding. The main difference is the Steelers brought in veteran quarterback Kurt Warner to keep them competitive through the process, while the Ravens are grooming the young Charlie Frye, who still has a ways to go.
AFC South1.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2.
Indianapolis Colts
3.
Tennessee Titans
4.
Houston Texans
Analysis: Few expected the Colts to fall back to 8-8 in 2005, and I expect them to rebound in 2006 - but only partially. While the loss of their top cornerback for the season week one would impact any team, it was a huge blow to the Colts and highlighted a lack of quality depth at the position. The Colts allowed 150+ points more in 2005 than the previous year and little was done to shore up the lack of depth at the position this offseason. Meanwhile, losses along the offensive line and a rapidly aging Gary Brackett will be felt, and the departure of Edgerrin James leaves huge shoes to fill for rookie 5th round pick Gerald Riggs Jr. Hard to bet against the Colts, but I think the Jaguars have caught and passed them as the odds on favorite. McNabb accelerates the quarterback development in Jacksonville by about a year and has a stronger arm. Pryce, Emmons, D Jackson, and M Williams were all significant upgrades on defense while most other changes were lateral moves or at least covered pretty well. Two exceptions to this are at cornerback - a position of abundance just a year ago - with virtually no depth behind the starting two, and the loss of RG Brian Waters. Still, I expect 10-11 wins and a division title for Jacksonville. As with the Browns, the Titans had an incredible 30 players leave this offseason. Following some widely praised moves a year ago that resulted in 10 wins and an AFC South title, player moves this offseason were not nearly as well received. The loss of Urlacher is huge enough, but the Titans will also feel the loss of Jason Taylor, Peter Boulware, and Terrell Owens/Darrell Jackson. A step back to 7-9 seems likely. Meanwhile in Houston, the Texans appear to be going with quarterback David Carr as their starter in 2006. Given his 75 awareness and lack of any success to date, I can't see the Texans improving on their 6-10 record this year. LaDainian Tomlinson and first round pick OLB A.J. Hawk are outstanding additions, don't get me wrong. But it will take huge performances by both of them plus plenty of smoke 'n mirrors to compensate for Carr's lack of awareness - at least for this season.
AFC West1.
Oakland Raiders
2.
San Diego Chargers
3.
Kansas City Chiefs
4.
Denver Broncos
Analysis: I expect the AFC West to be a three horse race this year, right down to the wire. I'll say Oakland and San Diego both at 9-7 and Kansas City at 8-8. The Chargers scored a lot of points last season, but also gave up a lot. While the Chargers may not experience much of a drop off with quarterback Kerry Collins, I think it was a mistake to trade Pennington and Kearse to their biggest divisional rival. Cramer should give the Chargers an additional weapon at tight end, but few other upgrades were made. With the loss of Kearse and no legit #2 corner, I expect the defense to become a real problem in 2006. Oakland has a few issues of their own, such as the loss of Woodson, and the overall lack of experience at receiver and corner. Not to mention I just can't trust Pennington to stay healthy or deliver in the big games. It will be interesting to see how Tyler Brayton does at RE. Kearse will need a big year just to match Brayton's production. The Chiefs are putting all the right pieces in place and have some rising stars, but I think they will fall just short in 2006. They will be in it until the end but Byron Leftwich is probably a year away. The Broncos are in full rebuild mode and have chosen to develop the young Jim Sorgi at quarterback. He is probably still two years away, which means he will probably be coming into his own about the same time as other future stars on the team.
AFC Playoff Seedings1.
New England Patriots
2.
Cleveland Browns
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars
4.
Oakland Raiders
5.
New York Jets
6.
Cincinnati Bengals
NFC predictions coming soon, time permitting!
