NFC East1.
Washington Redskins
2.
Dallas Cowboys
3.
Philadelphia Eagles
4.
New York Giants
Analysis: The NFC East may be the toughest division to predict as I could probably make a case for any of the four teams to win the division. The Giants won the division last year with an 11-5 record and made three significant upgrades on defense with Sheldon Brown, Justin Smith, and Kevin Hardy. First round pick Antonio Cromartie adds further depth at corner. GM Mendez is known for getting the most out of his players (sometimes referred to as overachieving), but two things have me concerned about the G-men in 2006. First, the Giants were an amazing 10-2 in one-possession games last year - nearly impossible to achieve with a young quarterback, let alone repeat - which leads to concern number two. It's easy to forget that Matt Schaub still has just 71AWR. I believe he has benefited not only from a strong running game, but three veteran receivers (Muhammad, Toomer, Glenn - avg AWR 92) that all left the team and were replaced with much younger players (current avg AWR 64). The Redskins came in second last year with an 8-8 record and finished the year with a four-game winning streak (interestingly enough, all three other NFC East teams finished the year with a losing streak). GM Mellon did a good job of keeping the core group together while making a few upgrades at HB, OL, and a true MLB. I think it's enough to add a couple more wins and take the division, maybe at 10-6. I really like the moves the Cowboys made this offseason, and for the second consecutive year the pair of Urlacher and Boulware catapults a struggling franchise out of the basement. I don't think it's enough to overtake the Redskins, and cutting Tom Nalen will definitely impact team morale, but 8-8 is likely. I also really like the moves the Eagles made to reshape the franchise, in particular the upgrades at DE and OL. I do think Manning struggles to repeat last year's success however so not much improvement may be seen in the win column for 2006. But GM Breckheimer has to be excited at the thought of Manning-Mann-Olinger coming into their prime together.
NFC North1.
Minnesota Vikings
2.
Detroit Lions
3.
Chicago Bears
4.
Green Bay Packers
Analysis: The Vikings edged out the Lions by a half game in 2005, sweeping them by a combined score of 72-13 in the process. Clearly this is the Vikings division until the Lions can reverse that trend. I expect the Vikings to win the division again (call it 11-5 with a more difficult schedule). Of the four teams, they added the most veteran upgrades (Tory James, Hugh Douglas, Corey Simon) along with youth and that will be reflected on the field in 2006. The Lions are effectively starting two rookies in the secondary and swapped Stroud/Sheppard for Scott/McQuarters, while upgrading at ROLB. All of which adds up to a possible step back for the defense this season. The Lions have to be excited about the addition of Brandon Marshall, but he is raw and if the OL cannot protect long enough to take advantage of Marshall's deep threat, I don't see him matching Mason's production in the short-to-medium routes - at least not this year, which is what this article is concerned with. I see second place and 9-7 for the Lions. The Packers and Bears will likely battle it out for third place in the NFC North, both probably around 6-10, and I was originally going to give the nod to the Packers based off Jake Delhomme. He should provide more consistent quarterback play than the Bears' Alex Smith, last year's OROY who will be looking to avoid a sophomore slump. But I have my own reservations about Delhomme, who hasn't posted a QB Rating above 75 since 2002. In addition, the Packers also lost some talent in the secondary (Springs, Sharper), linebacker, and continue to have a hole at LE. Last season, DT Terdell Sands led the team with 8 sacks and I don't see that the problem has been addressed. Put the Packers down finishing fourth at 5-11. The Bears will continue to bring Alex Smith along and added two good receivers in Washington and 1st round pick Miles Austin. DT Haloti Ngata was good building block for the DL, but with 52AWR he also needs time to blossom. The Bears improve slightly to 6-10 this season, good enough for third place, and look to contend one or two seasons down the road.
NFC South1.
Atlanta Falcons
2.
Carolina Panthers
3.
New Orleans Saints
4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Analysis: The NFC South was tied for the weakest division in 2005, and with half the division now grooming young quarterbacks and the Panthers still trying to find their way after a GM change, it should be the undisputed weakest division in 2006. The good news for the Falcons is that Trent Green agreed to play one more year and the Falcons should have no trouble winning the division as long as Green is healthy. The bad news for the Falcons is that this is probably Green's final year. The Falcons largely kept their team intact through free agenty (added depth at cornerback, lost depth at halfback) and drafted for the future. It will be interesting to see how much playing time GM Aldila feels he can give to the rookies if the division race gets unexpectedly close. I'd say 10-6 for the Falcons. The Panthers should finish second, probably about 7-9 or 8-8. GM Henry made a good move bringing in Griese at quarterback, and first round picks Stovall and Tye Hill should be able to contribute right away. At the same time, the losses of Barnett, Tomlinson, and Naeole will be felt. The Saints and Buccaneers have both made the decision to go all in with young quarterbacks. The main difference appears to be the Bucs are in full rebuild mode while the Saints have a pretty solid team already in place around David Greene. The Saints added several very good players this offseason in DeAngelo Hall, Concussion Dan, and first rounders OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson and MLB Stephen Tulloch. With a good supporting cast around him, it's possible Greene pulls a Matt Schaub and pushes the Panthers for second place around the 7-9 mark. It's just not likely. As mentioned previously, the Bucs are in full rebuild mode that has seen Sapp, Bryant, Lacy, and Kurt Warner leave via trade and Keyshawn Johnson via free agency. Throw in a rookie quarterback and a secondary that has John Lynch wondering why he didn't retire, and it's looking like a long season in Tampa. Scanning their schedule, let's say 3-13 for the Buccaneers.
NFC West1.
Arizona Cardinals
2.
St. Louis Rams
3.
San Francisco 49ers
4.
Seattle Seahawks
Analysis: In my 2005 predictions, I picked the Arizona Cardinals to win the NFC West and they did so by the narrowest of margins. In fact the entire division finished either 9-7 or 8-8. This season it spreads out a little...but not much. The Cardinals are returning 9 of 11 starters on defense, and while Gocong is not quite Shawne Merriman, the year of experience gained by young stars like Browner, Poole, and Fincher, and should make up for it. Getting 17 sacks from Umenyiora instead of 5 would sure help the rest of the defense where there is still plenty of inexperience (for now). The Cardinal Offense, and really the success of the team, will depend heavily on Carson Palmer who has unexplicably regressed since his rookie season. His 72.0 QB Rating ranked 29th, just below Orton, Smith, Grossman, and Schaub. Fortunately, Palmer's QB Rating shot to 96.3 for the Cardinals' playoff run and that is more of the quarterback I think we will see in 2006. They still need to get their Guard and WR situation figured out.
The Rams are the epitome of maintaining the status quo. Their only acquisition of any significance was backup corner Reynaldo Hill. Then again, they didn't lose much either. I originally had them improving to 10-6 on the strength of Drew Brees' rapid growth, but I am concerned about the left side of the Rams' offensive line, where they lost their starting LG and LT to free agency and neither replacement player has played an SFL game. Let's keep them at 9-7, losing to the Lions in week 4, and bump them to sixth seed (below) as a result. The Seahawks were also inactive this offseason, drafting one player (Quinn Ojinnaka) and signing one free agent (La'Roi Glover) that will have an impact this season. Fortunately, the only player they lost was OT Fred Miller. While Ojinnaka will be a much better player very soon, he will likely struggle somewhat at right tackle this season. Glover will definitely be an upgrade at RE. I just don't think the Seahawks have improved enough to keep pace, and will likely struggle to match their 4-2 divisional record of a year ago. They could have really used an immediate impact player at 13th overall. Much like the Seahawks, the 49ers were fairly quiet this offseason. They lost a starting OLB to retirement and replaced him capably with second round pick Brandon Johnson, but the only other impact player gained (or lost) was 17th overall pick WR Todd Watkins. Watkins gives young quarterback Kyle Orton a second quality target that was sorely needed, one that can start from day one and will be very good. The 49ers will finish 8-8 for the second straight season, but this time in sole possession of third place. With all NFC West teams projected to finish so close again, any major injury, trade, or surprise performance could shake up the standings a lot.
NFC Playoff Seedings1.
Arizona Cardinals
2.
Minnesota Vikings
3.
Atlanta Falcons
4.
Washington Redskins
5.
Detroit Lions
6.
St. Louis Rams
These are taking a LONG time to put together, so I will post a division at a time as completed...
