Smashmouth Football League Articles

Week 6 of the 2006 SFL season is in the books! Wow, what a tough but very interesting week. Just two undefeated teams (Bengals, Vikings) and lots of shakeup within the divisions from last year. In five of the eight divisions, the first place team has a half game lead or less which is exciting. An awful week last week at just 6-7, bringing the total for the season to 53-34 (.635). So, based off nothing more than my gut feeling this evening, here is how I see week seven playing out (just thirteen games this week):

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 @ Atlanta Falcons 31
I don't see any way the Steelers win this game without winning the turnover battle by at least +2. J.P. Losman had a nice first game as a Steeler, but this game is the first of five in a row against teams either in first place and/or a winning record. This is a must-win game for the Falcons, with the Bengals, Browns, and rematch with the Saints on the horizon.

New England Patriots 28 @ Buffalo Bills 27
This should be a great game, and about as close to a toss up as you can get. Patriots won the first matchup week one in Foxborough but it was tied after three quarters. Patriots are a healthy +7 in turnover differential (2nd), even holding a 3-0 advantage in their only loss of the season to the Bengals. McNair only has one game this season with a QB Rating less than 95.

Carolina Panthers 19 @ Cincinnati Bengals 37
Panthers managed their first win of the season last week against the lowly Ravens who were caught looking ahead to their bye week. But the Bengals are at the other end of the spectrum. I have a feeling this game will be tied at 13 at the half and GM Tinnin will be on a rant, before the Bengals pull away in the 3rd.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 @ Houston Texans 23
Speaking of rants, I have a gut feeling this game is going to be a lot closer than might be expected. These are two of the worst teams as far as ball security, but the Jaguars have been improving in this area as the season goes along while the Texans have been getting worse. Carr has actually managed 7 touchdown passes but LaDainian Tomlinson has the lone Texan rushing touchdown.

San Diego Chargers 31 @ Kansas City Chiefs 24
Chiefs' GM Breckheimer insists the team's #32 ranking against the pass is bogus. But when J.P. Losman go from couch to starter, puts up 251 yards and a 121.0 QB Rating against you, it might be time to take a closer look. The Chargers are fortunate to draw the Chiefs at least once without Priest Holmes as San Diego has struggled thus far. Their only wins are against the Titans and Ravens - two teams that at one time were ranked #32 this year.

Green Bay Packers 22 @ Miami Dolphins 28
The Dolphins have to be fuming after coming out on the short end of the stick late against the Patriots and Jets the last two weeks. Green Bay surprised many by starting the post-Favre era with three straight wins. But starting a brutal 7-game stretch with two losses isn't a good sign. The Packers haven't finished a game yet this season with a + turnover ratio.

Detroit Lions 26 @ New York Jets 31
Two teams that were expected to do well sit week seven at 2-4. I expected the Lions to play well last week with the return of Michael Vick and it just didn't happen. Maybe their problems run deeper on the other side of the ball as their defense has given up 30+ points in five of six games. Now they will play the rest of the season without rookie FS Anthony Smith (broken jaw). Jets went back to the basics against the Dolphins in an attempt to right the ship with favorable results. Whether that was a one-game blip or the start of a trend remains to be seen.

Philadelphia Eagles 29 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
Last week the Eagles showed what a dangerous team they are by smothering David Greene and the Saints. The Bucs continue to struggle with rookie quarterback Matt Leinart who has nine interceptions in his 3+ games. The Eagles are the third opponent in a gauntlet that has the Bucs playing five top-10 teams in seven games.

Denver Broncos 20 @ Cleveland Browns 31
At the start of the season, the Browns probably saw this game as a third easy victory in four weeks. But the Broncos are one of the league's surprise teams this year, currently tied with the Raiders for first place in the AFC West. Olivier has seemingly done it with smoke-and-mirrors on offense coupled with a #1 ranked pass defense. He wants me to keep picking his opponent, and I will because my gut feeling is the Browns win this one. They (finally) seem to be running on all cylinders right now.

Washington Redskins 26 @ Indianapolis Colts 24
Maybe the Colts will prove me wrong once again, but I have a gut feeling Washington will win this one. Justin Miller is listed as Doubtful and now the Colts' #1 running back is out, meaning Indianapolis should be even more one-dimension if that is possible. The Redskins have the secondary to at least keep Wayne and Harrison from going off.

Arizona Cardinals 23 @ Oakland Raiders 30
How did the Raiders rush for 205 yards and lead in first downs 19-5 yet lose 17-16 to the Broncos? One touchdown from six trips inside the red zone. That loss may come back to haunt them. Even though the Cardinals are playing better of late, I have a gut feeling that the Raiders bounce back in what should be a good game.

Minnesota Vikings 30 @ Seattle Seahawks 26
The Vikings are one team that has not disappointed this season - 5-0 record, 1st in points scored, 2nd in points allowed. Still, the Seahawks surprised me by beating the Rams last week and I think this game is closer than expected as well. That's my gut feeling - the Vikings win in a close game.

New York Giants 22 @ Dallas Cowboys 28
The Giants are reeling. Matt Schaub has an 84 QB Rating but only has 900 yards in five games - last in the league. The surprising lack of a running game makes it hard to play the Turtle offense effectively. I don't see that changing this week either against the #1 ranked Dallas rush defense. The Cowboys made a great (and expensive) trade to bring in Kurt Warner to save their season. I have a gut feeling the Cowboys stay a half game back of the Redskins and Eagles in a very competitive NFC East.