Smashmouth Football League Articles

Week 7 of the 2006 SFL season is in the books! Several games went pretty close to expected:

Gut feeling: Falcons 31 Steelers 18 - Actual: Falcons 34 Steelers 9
Gut feeling: Dolphins 28 Packers 22 - Actual: Dolphins 27 Packers 23
Gut feeling: Eagles 29 Buccaneers 16 - Actual: Eagles 31 Buccaneers 24
Gut feeling: Redskins 26 Colts 24 - Actual: Redskins 24 Colts 14

But this was also a week of several upsets, some minor and some major (Chiefs, Panthers). I also had the score of NYG/DAL almost exact, but the wrong team coming out on top. All things considered it was an average week at just 8-5, bringing the total for the season to 61-39 (.610). So, based off nothing more than my gut feeling this evening, here is how I see week eight playing out (fourteen games this week):

San Francisco 49ers 27 @ Chicago Bears 23
Two teams bringing along young quarterbacks. The 49ers have played well at times, but have been inconsistent. The Bears defense has been very stingy giving up yardage but is near the bottom of the league in takeaways, meaning a lot of long fields for Alex Smith.

Atlanta Falcons 25 @ Cincinnati Bengals 30
The Bengals were stunned at home by the Panthers last week, and will be out to prove it was an anomaly. This should be an interesting game between two of the top three offenses in the league. The Falcons have a very balanced attack while the Bengals are much more skewed toward the pass. But the Bengals have the better defense and do a better job with giveaways/takeaways.

Arizona Cardinals 13 @ Green Bay Packers 27
After a 3-0 start the Packers have lost their last three, but get a break here facing the Cardinals with Trent Dilfer under center before playing three more games against top-10 teams. The biggest news story out of the week was in Arizona where not only did the Cardinals fall to 2-5, but quarterback Carson Palmer appears to be lost for the year. GM Richardson is scrambling for a replacement to salvage the season (or at least attempt to), but will play with their current roster this week.

Seattle Seahawks 28 @ Kansas City Chiefs 24
The Chiefs pulled out a win against the Chargers by knocking Charlie Whitehurst out early, forcing the raw Matt Cassel to play and throw four interceptions. Still, the Chiefs have won three of their last four and Holmes' replacement Quincy Wilson rushed for 119. I have this one as a toss up if Priest Holmes was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 19 @ New Orleans Saints 32
After throwing just two interceptions in the first five games, Saints' quarterback David Greene threw four last week against the Eagles. It's a stark reminder that Greene is still very young, with just 72 AWR. Fortunately, the Saints next two games are against the Ravens and Bucs which gives Greene time to right the ship before entering a tough stretch on the schedule. By that time, Joe Horn should be back from injury.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 @ New York Giants 26
The Giants had a brutal schedule to start the season, with the third-highest SOS in the league and every opponent ranked top-20. Now entering a three-game stretch against the 29th, 30th, and 31st ranked teams, the Giants have a chance to possibly turn things around. If they are going to make any type of move it has to start this week against Tampa Bay, who is actually struggling more than the G-men.

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 @ Philadelphia Eagles 30
The Jaguars took care of business last week against the Texans in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score looks (38-10 end of 3rd). One can understand if the Jags had been looking ahead to this game at least a little. The Eagles are really playing well, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and may be the Jaguars biggest test in the regular season.

Houston Texans 23 @ Tennessee Titans 29
Somewhat surprisingly, even at 0-6 the Texans hold most statistical advantages against the 2-4 Titans....except one glaring one: turnover differential, where the Texans are dead last at -10. The Titans are coming off their bye week following their best performance of the year in upsetting the Redskins. Tennessee can't afford to come out flat and get behind early in this one. Play like they did against Washington and they should win this one.

St. Louis Rams 31 @ San Diego Chargers 27
The Rams have been a tough team to figure out. They have impressive wins against the Broncos, Cardinals, and Packers, but have lost two of their last three against the Lions and Seahawks. The Charger's season has been a disappointment thus far (2-4), and it will be tough to turn things around entering a stretch of tough games. Kerry Collins was supposed to be the replacement for Chad Pennington, but he's been suspended, benched, and offered in trade leaving Whitehurst and Cassel to carry the team.

New York Jets 15 @ Cleveland Browns 34
The Browns have been on a roll since starting the season 0-2, winning four straight without CB Ronde Barber who will miss at least four weeks. Some will point to the low power ranking of their opponents, but the Raiders and Broncos were tied for first place in the AFC West prior to last week. Terrell Owens has nine touchdowns in the four games. Meanwhile the Jets are headed in the opposite direction, already looking ahead to 2007 after losing Woodson for the year. Those looking for a Barber-less turnaround without Woodson are probably living in a fantasy world.

Indianapolis Colts 28 @ Denver Broncos 24
Would the real Denver Broncos please stand up? After a huge upset of the Raiders in week six, people began climbing onboard the Bronco bandwagon as this year's cinderella story. But blowout losses to the Patriots and Browns make it look like that was just an "any given Sunday" game. Meanwhile the Colts are suffering from their own identity crisis. They are currently 4-2, on top of the AFC South, but haven't beaten a team ranked higher than #23. With three of their next four games against top-10 teams, we will know much about this Colts team by end of week twelve, but this week they need to continue to beat the teams they are "supposed to beat."

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 @ Oakland Raiders 29
Steelers were 2-2 after four weeks and seemingly still in the hunt after week four, but after trading Kurt Warner will struggle to stay relevant. Raiders should be running away with the AFC West but hold just a one game lead over the Broncos and Chiefs. They can't afford to lay another egg as they did week six with one touchdown in six trips in the Red Zone.

Dallas Cowboys 27 @ Carolina Panthers 25
Dallas trails the Redskins and Eagles by one-and-a-half games and can't afford to fall any further behind. Kurt Warner was outplayed by the young Matt Schaub in his first game with the Cowboys, but should do much better after a week to learn the offense. Playing a Panther defense that has already surrendered 17 touchdowns, ranked #32 in takeaways, Red Zone, and QB Rating should help as well. Carolina puts up a lot of passing yards (#4) but so far it hasn't translated to a lot of points (#28 ). Taking better care of the football and converting on third down (just 28%) should reverse that trend, making the Panthers a dangerous team down the stretch. Until then, last week's huge upset of the Bengals will be just that.

New England Patriots 22 @ Minnesota Vikings 29
Wow, HUGE game on MNF this week, with huge implications and a possible Super Bowl preview! This is probably the first game in a long time that the Patriots will play while not in first place in the AFC East after the Bills' big win last week. No reason to sound the alarm yet, but New England has lost two of their last three and can't afford to make it three of four - though their second-half schedule looks manageable. The Vikings are the SFL's last undefeated team and already lead the NFC North by three games - winning five of their six games by 8+ points in the process. Nothing here to gives me a gut feeling the Patriots take down the Vikes this week. Minnesota moves to 7-0 in a hard-fought game under the lights.