In the AFC there are 9 teams that we will consider as being in the hunt for the playoffs: Oakland Raiders (11-2), Cleveland Browns (10-3), Buffalo Bills (10-3), Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6), Cincinnati Bengals (9-4), New England Patriots (7-6), Miami Dolphins (7-6), and the New York Jets (7-6).
Oakland Raiders
Week 15: vs St Louis Rams (7-6) - W
The Rams could probably slow down the Raiders but can Drew Brees go on the road and take down the Raiders #2 defense in QB Rating allowed? I think that's too tall of a task here.
Week 16: vs Kansas City Chiefs (5-8 ) - W
I think this is a pretty decisive win for the Raiders. Raiders are playing at a much higher level and cruise to a victory putting them at 13-2 on the season.
Week 17: @ New York Jets (7-6) - L
During the 5 game winning streak for the Jets they're +5 on turnovers, which would be on pace for the +13 turnover rate on the season that the Raiders have. I'm giving the upset to the Jets due to a big week 17 game with playoff implications at home.
Final Record: 13-3
Cleveland Browns (10-3)
Week 15: @ Baltimore Ravens (3-10) W
It was a blowout in favor of Cleveland the last time these two met back in week 3. I wouldn't expect more of the same, but a Cleveland victory should be a given.
Week 16: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) W
The Bucs are having a really difficult season and on pace for the #1 overall pick. They haven't won since week 3 against the Carolina Panthers.
Week 17: @ Houston Texans (2-11) W
The David Carr-led Texans are also having a difficult season and round out the easy finish for the Browns.
Final Record: 13-3
Buffalo Bills
Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins (7-6) W
This could go either way but I like how the the Bills passing offense matches up against the Dolphins passing defense. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if either team won.
Week 16: vs. Tennessee Titans (6-7) L
This is another close one but I like the way the Titans defense has been playing. If they can slow down the Bills offense they have a chance to pull off the upset here.
Week 17: @ Baltimore Ravens (3-10) W
This should be a gimme game for the Bills to round out their season.
Final Record: 12-4
Cincinnati Bengals
Week 15: @ Indianapolis Colts (5-8 ) - W
The Peyton Manning-led Colts are having their second consecutive down year and we will likely see that trend continue as long as their front office/coaching staff stick to the same gameplan that's holding them back. Bengals roll.
Week 16: @ Denver Broncos (5-8 ) - W
The Broncos are improving and they're a bit tougher than they get credit for, but I think it will be too tall of a task to stop the Bengals.
Week 17: @ Baltimore Ravens (3-10) - W
I didn't realize how soft this schedule was for the Bengals. It's tougher than the Browns' finish but should still give the Bengals a pretty easy path to 12 wins.
Final Record: 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 15: @ Tennessee Titans (6-7) - L
The Jaguars beat the Titans at home in week 9 by 3 points. I think the home field advantage reverses and gives the Titans the edge here.
Week 16: vs. New England Patriots (7-6) - L
Another team that is surprising to be struggling. Well, struggling in terms of expectations for the Patriots. The Patriots have won 2 straight and have a chance to keep the streak against a real streaky Jaguars team. Sometimes they're good, other times Madden hates them.
Week 17: @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-8 ) - W
After losing the last 2, the Jaguars bounce back and keep their playoff hopes alive. As the Titans win 2 of 3 (vs Buffalo & Jacksonville). They share the same records and split against one another, so it comes down the conference record where the Jaguars edge out Tennessee and crawl into the playoffs at 8-8.
Final Record: 8-8
New England Patriots
Week 15: vs Houston Texans (2-11) - W
The Patriots keep their win streak alive and roll to 3 straight with this game, beating up the deer-in-the-headlights David Carr.
Week 16: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6) - W
As mentioned above I see the Patriots winning this game. The Jaguars have one of the worst passing defenses in the league and Tom Brady moves the ball with ease in this one, opening some really wide running lanes for Musa Smith.
Week 17: @ Tennessee Titans (6-7) - W
The Patriots win here and squash the Titans playoff hopes. If they safe, cannot improve their seeding (which they cannot in this scenario), they could elect to rest their key players, opening the door for the Titans to scoop the win and knock the Jaguars out of the playoffs. Otherwise the Patriots finish the season winning 5 straight and take advantage of the 3 easier matchups compared to their other 7-6 division rivals the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. The Dolphins have a tougher schedule and the Jets have an absolutely brutal schedule and while both teams play hard to the end, the Patriots close the books for them.
Final Record: 10-6
Playoffs
Wild Card Round
New England Patriots #6 @ Buffalo Bills #3
This is a hell of a game to predict, but I like the way the Bills have been playing this year. Their pass defense has been more efficient and Tom Brady and the Patriots passing offense just hasn't been rolling this year. Despite winning their last 5 games, the Patriots offense still isn't clicking like they need it to.
Buffalo Bills win
Cincinnati Bengals #5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars #4
Despite the Bengals winning 4 more games than the Jaguars, they're the inferior seed and are on the road. Cincinnati quickly shows that they're the superior team here and squash Jacksonville mightily, advancing to the divisional round.
Cincinnati Bengals win
Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals #5 @ Cleveland Browns #1
I was hoping to avoid this scenario but here we are. The 2 previous games this year have been determined by a combined total of 7 points. But, I think the Bengals pull this one off. It's a coin flip kind of game and I have a hard time giving myself the win here.
Cincinnati Bengals win
Buffalo Bills #3 @ Oakland Raiders #2
Another tough game to call here. I think the Oakland Raiders are a one dimensional offense as they can run the ball but aren't doing a whole lot through the air, but it's the defense that really does it for Oakland. They're playing at a fantastic level on the defensive side of the ball and have one of the best pass defenses in the league. The Bills are far more productive through the pass game and the Raiders defense really makes it difficult for Buffalo to move the ball.
Oakland Raiders win
AFC Championship Game
Cincinnati Bengals #5 @ Oakland Raiders #2
Like the Buffalo Bills, the Bengals are doing more through the air than they are on the ground, which appears to be a little bit unlike what we are used to seeing from them. The Raiders have the #2 pass defense in QB Rating allowed and #1 rush defense in rushing yards allowed. That's carrying them to the Super Bowl.
Oakland Raiders advance to the Super Bowl!
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