The NFC made headlines in 2004 when the near unthinkable happened - the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons missed the playoffs. In maybe the craziest playoff race we will ever see, both wildcard spots went to 12-4 teams: the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. A similar phenomenon occurred in the inaugural 2002 season when the 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were on the outside looking in after Week 17, and the 11-5 Washington Redskins and Chicago Bears claimed the last two spots in the NFC playoff picture.
So what is it with the NFC that it is historically so competitive that both 11-5 and 10-6 teams have been on the outside looking in during post-season festivities? Who knows, but it is worth noting that no team in the AFC has ever missed the playoffs with a record better than 9-7. It has certainly paid to be in the AFC. This year, with two weeks remaining in the regular season, it's clear we will not see an 11-5 team miss the playoffs - only five teams in the conference currently have five losses or less. However, it is entirely possible we may see a 10-6 team miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Further more, it's still in the cards that
two 10-6 teams could miss the playoffs, which would mark the first time that has ever happened in league history.
As we still have two weeks left in the regular season, this article won't focus on worst-case or lose-out scenarios. With the Carolina Panthers, St. Louis Rams, and Arizona Cardinals all currently at 8-6 and only one playoff spot currently available between the three of them, we are going to focus on the playoff scenarios involving 10-6 teams. For the aforementioned clubs that means winning out, and for the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles that means going 1-1 to close out the season.
I will note that I am not guaranteeing these scenarios. I in fact only simulated them one way - these could potentially change based on which game the Redskins and Eagles lose due to the common games tiebreaker.
My folder was already filled with A-H scenarios as it was, so I did not bother exhausting every last possibility. For the record, most of these scenarios were simmed with the Eagles losing to the Cowboys but then losing to or beating the Falcons. As for the Redskins, whether or not the Rams went 10-6 dictated their wins/losses. I also just realized I did not calculate any scenarios without myself going 10-6, for obvious reasons. Sorry, not sorry.
Without further ado, let's get to the scenarios.
10-6 Teams: 
Wildcard Teams: This is the ultimate and perhaps least likely scenario, as every team who has a chance to go 10-6 does. The Rams, Panthers, and Cardinals all win out, while the Redskins and Eagles each split their remaining games. Washington wins the NFC East in this scenario, while the Eagles are left at the mercy of the tiebreaker scenarios. Lucky for them, they still get in, along with the Carolina Panthers, while the NFC West is left on the outside looking in. This is the most noteworthy scenario, as it would mark the first time in SFL history that two 10-6 teams from one conference both missed the playoffs.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: In this scenario, the Eagles win the NFC East with an 11-5 record, while the Rams, Redskins, Panthers, and Cardinals are left to battle out the tiebreakers at 10-6. In the end, the Rams and Panthers move on, while the Redskins and Cardinals watch from home.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: Here, the Panthers slipped up and lost a game, while all the other teams won. The Redskins once again claim the NFC East with the tiebreaker over the Panthers, but the Eagles still earn a wildcard berth. Arizona is the 10-6 team staying home in this scenario.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: This is a very similar variation to the previous scenario, except the Panthers won out while the Rams slipped up and lost at least one game. The Redskins still win the division, the Eagles still grab a wildcard spot, but the Cardinals earn the second wildcard spot while the Panthers are forced to hit the links.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: Here, the Eagles win the NFC East at 11-5, while the Redskins, Rams, and Cardinals all fight for the two wildcard spots at 10-6. For whatever reason two teams from the same division are allowed to advance in this scenario, and the Redskins are the team left on the outside looking in. This is the most blatantly wrong scenario according to my understanding, but it is what it is. The Redskins continue to have the worst tiebreaker scenarios, and need to aim to win the division if they want to insure their playoff hopes.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: This is the only scenario where the Redskins go 0-2 to finish 9-7, while the Panthers and Rams both manage to win out. The Eagles win the NFC East at either 11-5 or 10-6. In this scenario the Cardinals will lose the tiebreaker and the Rams and Cardinals will both earn wildcard berths.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: In this scenario, the Redskins win the division at either 11-5 or 10-6, while the Eagles enter the wild card picture at 10-6. The Rams drop at least one of their remaining games, and it comes down to Arizona, Philly, and Carolina. As looks to be the most likely scenario without the Rams in the conversation, the Panthers end up missing out despite taking care of business, while the Cardinals and Eagles advance.
10-6 Teams: Wildcard Teams: Finally, here we have the Eagles winning the NFC East while the Redskins fight for a wild card spot. The Rams tripped up and finish 8-8 or 9-7, while both the Panthers and Cardinals win out. We noted that the Panthers lose out in most scenarios where the Rams don't win out, but in even more of a precarious situation are the Washington Redskins, who appear to have the shortest leash of any potential 10-6 wildcard team. Carolina ends up getting the nod over them, while Arizona also advances.
The Skinny:Well, there you have it, at least for every scenario involving the Arizona Cardinals. If anyone wants to calculate the scenarios that don't involve us, feel free. Looking over all of these scenarios, it's clear that the St. Louis Rams and Philadelphia Eagles have the best odds for making the playoffs as a 10-6 wildcard team. The Eagles made the playoffs in every scenario they were involved in, while the Rams moved on in 4/5 of their scenarios. It appears that as long as the Eagles don't lose out they are in, while the Rams are very likely to be in if they win out. The Cardinals and Panthers are somewhere in-between, as each made the playoffs in 50% of the potential scenarios. Meanwhile, the Redskins need to be preparing to win the division, as they make the playoffs in exactly zero of these 10-6 wildcard scenarios.
With all this said, we still have two weeks left to play, and anything can happen! This of course only looks at scenarios with multiple 10-6 teams - it's still very possible one or more 9-7 teams could get in. But as always, the NFC playoff picture is bonkers!
