Alright, last week I focused on what would happen in the NFC if any number of teams went 10-6. Well, all of those teams still have a chance to go 10-6, and we don't really have any better idea of what's going to happen, other than that the Redskins now officially clinch the NFC East with a win. Due to common games being a major tiebreaking factor, the sheer number of possible scenarios makes this pretty much impossible to calculate without the help of Madden, and almost impossible in general to exhaust every possible scenario. So I have come up with as many scenarios as I could which I know for sure to be true. It is very likely there are other possible scenarios I have not mentioned here, but I have at least found a number of scenarios where a number of teams can be hopeful. This is not going to break down the seeding or anything like that, just how teams can either get IN or OUT.
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Win /OR
Loss & PHI L
The Washington Redskins have by far the simplest in/out scenarios of anyone. If they win, they win the NFC East and they are in the playoffs. They can also clinch the NFC East if the Eagles lose, as they hold the division tiebreaker. Should the Redskins lose and the Eagles win, however, I am not sure they have any path to a wildcard spot. They seem to lose all the tiebreaker scenarios even if teams like the Cardinals, Rams, and Panthers go 9-7. I am not saying it's 100% they can't get a WC spot, but I do believe it to be true.
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Win /OR
Loss & DAL L & NYG L & STL L & CAR OR ARI L
The Eagles have the easiest wildcard path of any potential wildcard teams. They simply need a win, and that might be good enough to win the division, but it will definitely be good enough to earn a wildcard berth. The Eagles can also get in with a loss, but they will have to count on a Dallas Cowboys loss AND a New York Giants loss for sure, plus a lot of other help. If the Dallas Cowboys or New York Giants go 9-7 as well as the Eagles, the Cowboys or Giants will knock the Eagles out of any multi-team tie-breakers therefore eliminating Philadelphia. On top of a Cowboys and Giants loss, they will also need a St. Louis Rams loss for sure as well as an additional loss from either the Panthers or the Cardinals. The path is there for the Eagles even with a loss, but they would be very wise to win their game against the Falcons if they want to keep playing.
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Win & STL W OR PHI L OR ARI L / OR
Loss & STL L & WAS L OR PHI L
The Panthers seem to have the next easiest time earning a wild card spot, although they are not 100% in with a win. There is a scenario where if the Rams lose, and the Eagles and Cardinals both win then the Panthers will be left on the outside looking in even at 10-6. This is because the Eagles and Cardinals apparently both own the multi-team tiebreakers over the Panthers. However, if the Rams go 10-6, they would eliminate the Cardinals from any potential multi-team tiebreaking procedures due to being in the same division, so the Panthers would not have to worry about this scenario then. The Panthers can also get in with a number of different scenarios at 9-7. Their best bet at 9-7 might actually be an Eagles win and a Redskins loss, as they hold the 9-7 tiebreaker over the Redskins but not the Eagles. The odds of the Panthers getting in at 9-7 are not as good as I once imagined, but the key for them is going to be a Rams loss as well as a loss for either the Eagles or the Rams.
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Win & WAS L OR PHI L OR CAR L /OR
Loss & PHI W & WAS L & ARI L
The Rams are in a good position if they win, but like the Panthers they are not 100% in and need one of three things to happen. Even with a win they still need a Washington loss, a Philly loss, or a Carolina loss. All three of those teams winning would be the worst case scenario for the Rams, as it puts both the Eagles and the Panthers in the WC race at 10-6, and both of those teams own tiebreakers over the Rams. I originally did not see a path where the Rams could make the playoffs at 9-7, but one eventually appeared. They need the Cardinals to lose and they need the Eagles to win the NFC East. That means even if the Cowboys go 9-7, the Redskins eliminate them from the multi-team tiebreaker and the Rams also own the tiebreaker over the Redskins. This scenario would put the Panthers and Rams in the playoffs.
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Win & STL L /OR
Win & CAR L & PHI L /OR
Win & CAR L & WAS L /OR
Loss & CAR L & PHI L & STL W /OR
Loss & CAR L & WAS L
We are home to perhaps the most complicated playoff scenario. Even with a win we need at least one team, maybe two different teams to lose. Our easiest path to get in is if we win and the Rams lose. Because the Rams own the common games tiebreaker over us, they eliminate us from any multi-team tiebreaker scenario. Without the Rams in the picture, we actually win most of those multi-team tiebreaker scenarios. The other option would be a Carolina loss coupled with either a Washington loss OR a Philly loss. Amazingly enough, in the second parts of this scenario we can also get in even if we lose, although the Philly/Carolina losses would also have to include - quite ironically - a St. Louis win. I believe this is because the Rams would earn the #5 seed first in this scenario, and then would not be around in the multi-team tiebreaker for the #6 seed, which we would win. At this point the irony of the whole situation is that if the Rams actually won one more game, we would actually be hoping for them to win this week, as we would then only potentially be in a 10-6 tiebreaker scenario with the Eagles and Panthers, which we apparently win. Exhausting, I know.
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Win & PHI L & ARI L & STL L
The Cowboys are still alive! Yes, despite the whole mess above, there is still a realistic path for the Dallas Cowboys. It starts with a win to get to 9-7, and then also needs first and foremost an Eagles loss. This would eliminate the Eagles from any multi-team tiebreakers at 9-7 and insert Dallas instead. On top of that they also need the Cardinals and Rams to lose. The Panthers are irrelevant in this scenario because they hold the head to head tiebreaker over the Cowboys. The Cardinals also hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys, which is why they need a Rams loss. If the Rams and Cardinals both sit at 9-7, the Rams would eliminate the Cardinals from any tiebreaker scenarios in the same fashion the Cowboys eliminated the Eagles.
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Win & PHI L & ARI L & DAL L & STL L OR CAR L
It turns out the New York Giants are alive and well as well, although they will need the most help of any NFC team to get in with a win. They will need all of the Eagles, Cardinals, and Cowboys to lose, and then will also need to hope for a loss from either the Rams or the Panthers. This is an even longer shot than the Cowboys getting in - but it's not impossible.
In SummarySo there it is. Like I said - that's not every scenario, but I think it summarizes most of them. There is a chance I may have got something wrong, but at this point my head is spinning in circles. The Redskins and Eagles are in great spots with win-and-in scenarios, while the Panthers and Rams need a win and just the tiniest amount of help (one of 3 scenarios). The Cardinals need more help with a win, but still not a ton. Most incredibly, all of these teams except the Redskins can still earn a wildcard spot with a loss at 9-7, although it is a particular long shot for the Philadelphia Eagles. Finally, the Dallas Cowboys could still make it into the post-season and stay OFF the hot seat next year, and even crazier if the Cowboys blow their opportunity the Giants could even sneak in as well. It will take a tiny miracle, but crazier things have happened!
