AFC
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I've said multiple times already that this is a terrible draw for the Cleveland Browns. They had an historic run after starting 0-2, put up 200+ points, earned the #1 seed, and now they have to play the defending AFC champions and the winningest team of all time, the New England Patriots. While the Patriots struggled this year and needed a Week 17 win to make the playoffs, they are perhaps more dangerous than ever after reshuffling their gameplan, a move that worked to perfection when they dropped 50 on the AFC East champion Bills. The argument can also be made that this Browns team really wasn't tested much this year after they only played 6 games against teams with a winning record, and two of those games were against the Panthers during their 0-5 stretch and a defeated Jets team who started BJ Symons. They went 2-2 over the remainder of those games. In the end I expect this to be a hell of a game and would not be surprised to see the winner go on to the Superbowl. It was a great run for the Browns, but I can't bet against Tom Brady in the Superbowl, not after the Patriots finally put it together last week against the Bills. I think it also helps the Pats tremendously that Tom won't know which gameplan they will run ahead of time.
Winner: 
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This is a very tough game to predict. Both teams have struggled as of late. The Bengals lost to the Steelers in their final game of the regular season, and did not beat a team ranked better than #23 after their Week 8 win over the Falcons. They then came out and played down to a Craig Nall led Jaguars squad in the wild card round. The Raiders backed into the playoffs, losing their last three games of the regular season but still managing to "earn" a 1st round bye. The other thing that makes this game tough is that neither team has a ton of elite playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, instead relying on efficient offense and strong defensive play to win games. For the Bengals it is the passing game (8th overall) and the Raiders the rushing attack (1st overall). In the end I think this game comes down to the fact that the Bengals are rock-solid against the run, while the Raiders struggle against the pass with a young secondary. The Raiders beat the Bengals 37-30 not too long ago, but that's tough to do twice in a row, and I don't see the Raiders putting up 24 points in a single quarter on this defense again. I like the Bengals in a lower scoring game than what we saw last time.
Winner: @ With both wild-card teams advancing for the second straight week, we can an AFC Championship game featuring the #5 seed vs the #6 seed. Talk about wild-card magic! It also is a re-match of last year's AFC Championship game, although this time the game will be played in Ohio. Neither team has changed a whole lot since then roster-wise, and that game game down to a wire as the Patriots won 33-30. We saw a much different outcome in Week 4 of this season when the Bengals walloped a 3-0 Patriots team 34-14, however. In that game the Bengals out-gained New England 436-195 and won by nearly three touchdowns despite turning the ball over three times. It could be argued that that is the game that broke the Patriots this year, as they went on to lose 5 of their next 7 games following the loss. But after winning 4/5 to close out the season and then beating the Bills and Browns, this is a different Patriots team that has gotten out of their funk. I don't really have a great reason for it, but unfortunately for Brady my money is on them to get back to the Superbowl by beating the Bengals two years in a row.
Winner: Winner: NFC
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One of these teams won their division after losing 5 out of their last 8 games, while the other won their division by going 8-0 over that stretch and earning the #1 seed. So this should be an easy game to pick, right? Well, not so fast. Seattle played only two teams with a winning record over that stretch, while the Redskins played 6. In fact Seattle is only 4-3 against teams with a winning record this year, and all four of those wins came inside the division. For those following along at home that's an 0-3 record against teams with a winning record outside the division. It just so happens the Washington Redskins meet both of those criteria. These teams are very similar on paper, other than the fact that the Seahawks yield more yardage on average. Both teams love to run the ball and do it well, and they both average almost 26 points per game on offense. They complement that by playing stingy defense, as both teams have top 5 scoring defenses. The difference? Seattle will clamp down on you in the red zone, and they also have been much better at protecting the football. In the end I think that will be the difference in this one and that the more experienced quarterback will lead his team to victory. Give me Seattle in a very close one.
Winner: 
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This might be the most easiest game for me to predict so far, and that is no disrespect to Vikings GM Neal Wintermute. He's simply being asked to walk into Atlanta and topple one of the most lethal offenses we have ever seen with one hand being held behind his back. The Falcons didn't miss a beat with the change in ownership, going 8-1 down the stretch, and they will enter this game with an absolute clean bill of health. Meanwhile Minnesota stumbled after going 8-0 out of the gate, winning just 3 out of their last 9 games. Now a lot of that had to do with losing their most potent offensive weapon in Randy Moss, but that fact matters little when they won't have him for this game either. They will also be without their second-best receiver in Michael Clayton, and it was just announced that bruising HB Eddie George will miss the game as well after getting injured in the win over the Rams last week. As always with the Falcons there is a chance that they have one of their off days like they did against the Panthers in Week 16, but I don't see that as likely. I think the Falcons go up big in this one and don't look back.
Winner: @ While the AFC Championship game featured a match-up of two wildcard teams, here we have a heavyweight battle pitting the #1 seed against the #2 seed. At first glance, this match-up doesn't bode particularly well for the Seahawks. They play a bend but don't break defense that yields a lot of yards, and yardage is what the Falcons offense does best, averaging 427 yards per game. As mentioned earlier Seattle's strength is that they clamp down on you in the red zone, playing a bend but don't break defense, but the Falcons have been prolific in the red zone this year. In 49 trips to the red zone they have scored 34 touchdowns - good for a 69% TD rate when they get inside the 20. However, I think the Seahawks have two things going for them here. The first is the turnover battle. Atlanta is -10 on the season (27th), while Seattle is +12 (4th). In the Falcons four losses this year they lost the turnover battle a combined 2-9. However they often haven't needed to win the turnover battle to win, and actually won 5 games this year where they lost the turnover battle. They will likely need to do that again in this one, as Seattle is tied for the fewest turnovers in the league while the Falcons are tied for the fewest takeaways in the league. The second thing going for the Seahawks is that they might be as well suited to match-up with the Falcons high flying offense as anyone given Rock's penchant for athleticism on the defensive side of the ball. They have speed all over the place and will be able to run with the Flacons weapons down the field. At the end of the day, though, I still don't like this match-up for them. Their strength is their run game and the strength of Atlanta's defense is their front seven. I just don't think the 'Hawks have the offensive firepower to keep up in a shootout. It will take a stifling defensive effort for them to win, and while I certainly think it's possible, I'm not going to bet on it. Give me the Falcons by a touchdown.
Winner: Superbowl vs. Finally, the Superbowl match-up. This one pits a team who's been here before and experienced heart-break against a team who has finally gotten over the hump. These teams have only met once before in SFL history, a 2005 affair that the Patriots won 23-19. That result comes with a gigantic asterisk, however, attempted less than half the team's passes for the game, and in fact the Falcons were forced to play three different quarterbacks. They still managed to outscore the Patriots 13-10 in the second half, containing New England's star HB Musa Smith for most of the game and yielding just 3.26 YPC. This is 2006, however, so most of that goes out the window despite these team's being very similar to last year's versions of themselves. The Patriots struggled in the middle of the regular season before finding their groove again, while the Falcons have been red hot for as long as anyone can remember despite a Week 16 slip up. I think the Patriots have 2 big things going for them in this game. The first is Tom Brady. IN my sims against the Patriots in last year's Superbowl it never ceased to amaze me just how real the Tom Brady comeback factor is. He automatically gives them a leg up in any playoff game. The second is turnovers, as has been a common theme in this article. Despite having their worst regular season to date, the Patriots still led the league in takeaways. And if you are going to beat the Falcons, you need to make them turn the ball over. I think the Pats have the rushing offense to control the clock, the quarterback to come up big in clutch situations, and the defense to make the Falcons turn the ball over. After a disappointing regular season, the Patriots make it back to the big game and finally get over the hump. It's a devastating end to Trent Green's career, but Nic will have his squad back at the top in short order for another crack at it.
Winner:
