1.1 - WR Calvin Johnson - Some things never seem to change. It's a new off-season with a new group of prospects, and we have a new team picking first overall. And for once, it appears this pick is not going to change hands. Still - we have yet to complete pre-draft free agency and everyone already knows who this pick is going to be, and for the second year in a row it's going to be a wide receiver. After initially declaring the pick off the market, some reports emerged that Tampa Bay would be open to hearing offers for the pick. However nothing appears to have come of that, despite the Minnesota Vikings apparently offering up Randy Moss in exchange for the chance to draft Johnson. But the Buccaneers are in no position to be trading 15 years of Megatron for 5 seasons of a regressing Moss - they just aren't ready to compete yet. But drafting a player of his caliber and giving last year's Top 10 pick Matt Leinart an elite option to look to on every down should help this offense get off the ground in 2007. I think Bill is wise in his instinct to hold on to this pick and take the best receiver to ever enter the SFL draft.
1.2 - OT Joe Thomas - The top two picks in this draft are as close to sure things as you are going to get. Daren was always going to take whichever of Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas that the Buccs didn't take, and given the fact that the Buccs have always been locked in on Calvin, this pick has always and will always be Joe Thomas. There are other legitimate directions that the Dolphins could go with this pick with a stud receiver and cornerback still on the board, but the fact that Daren is a Browns fan in real life puts the icing on the cake here. Just as Calvin is the best receiver to ever enter the draft, Joe Thomas is by far the best offensive lineman to ever enter the draft. We've seen players with his physical talent before, but never anyone close to his 67 AWR/94 PBK/95 PBK. He's as plug and play as it gets and Miami will not regret this pick for a second.
1.3 - CB Corey Graham - The third pick is where the mystery and intrigue begin. The Chargers have made it known for quite some time that this selection is available for whoever wants to trade up for QB Brady Quinn, but so far there don't appear to be any takers. In fact, there is one team that has a deal lined up to take Quinn at a different pick in the draft already (more on that later), apparently banking that San Diego will not find any suitors here. I'm going to go ahead and assume that this holds, and that the Chargers will be forced to stay here and make a pick. As horrible as that sounds, this is actually a very enviable situation to be in with two studs in WR Dewayne Jarrett and CB Corey Graham on the board. Some have mentioned S Sabby Piscitelli as an option here, but I just can't see taking a safety over one of those two guys. In the end I have them going with Graham over Jarrett. I think Jarrett might be the better player down the road, but we have yet to see an elite physical talent like Graham enter the draft with such high awareness, and I think that makes him worthy of the third pick. It's also a bigger need for the Chargers, as they only have Quentin Jammer and then three 7th round picks (yes, really) at the position. He will be a great cornerstone piece for a young rebuilding team.
1.4 - WR Dewayne Jarrett - To me, these third and fourth picks are almost like the first and second picks - there are two obvious choices and whoever doesn't get taken first is very likely to be taken with the latter selection. That means the Baltimore Ravens - picking in the top 5 for the second year in a row - select WR Dewayne Jarrett here. If he was entering the draft any other year (sans Megatron), he's in all likelihood the best receiver in the draft and most likely gone in the first three picks. However, the Ravens are the benefactors of a star-studded top of the draft and are able to give Charlie Frye a shiny new weapon to play with. Speaking of Frye, I do think the Ravens make sense as a potential dark horse candidate to take Brady Quinn. Quinn, also one of the most talented players to ever enter the league at his position, would have been a sure-fire top two selection if he had been part of the 2003 or 2004 class, but there is simply a lack of teams in need of a young developmental QB right now. Still, Quinn is 4 years younger than Frye and arguably the better player even as of today. But I get the feeling Norbert feels set with his quarterback room and instead goes with the stud receiver to help Frye along.
1.5 - LT James Marten - You will continue to notice a theme here. The top of this draft is so loaded that even the players who are ranked number two at their position are still historically talented by SFL standards. Such was the case for Jarrett, and it's also the case for Marten. The common denominator here is the intangibles. We've mostly seen raw studs (aside from QBs) enter the draft, but this year we are witnessing an influx of elite physical talents who are also ready to play from day one. James Marten is no exception. While he lacks the top end strength of a player like Thomas or past top OL picks like Tyson Clabo or Wes Sims, he has everything else you are looking for, including a brilliant 74 AWR. While his blocking technique does need some work, that is a great launching point for a dominant SFL career. It's also a great for for Chicago, as offensive tackle is perhaps the biggest current need on the roster.
1.6 - QB Brady Quinn - Yes, you read that right - it is the other team from Pennsylvania picking sixth overall rather than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Just when Quinn thought he was going to be heading to the Steel City, the Eagles swoop in at the last second and send him five hours the other direction across the state to the City of Brotherly Love in the Eli Manning trade we have all been waiting for so we can stop hearing about it. Now I have no idea whether or not this is actually going to happen here, but I do have a feeling that the just-add-water deal the Eagles have been cooking up to ship off Eli Manning involves a team in the top 10 and hinges on Quinn being available when that team is on the clock. It could be here, it could be at a different spot, but for now I'm going with the Steelers. They have been insistent that Vince Young will be the franchise quarterback, but I am not sure too many people are buying it for now. Instead, Eli goes to Pittsburgh and Brady Quinn becomes the new face of the Philadelphia Eagles franchise. It's great value at this point considering his historical comparables were both taken first overall.
1.7 - CB Aaron Ross - The Green Bay Packers did not have the type of year they were hoping for last season in the first year of the post-Favre era, and they ended up with the 7th pick in the draft. The offense didn't seem to be the problem however, and I think they will look to upgrade their defense - specifically their secondary - to be able to keep up with the likes of Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, and now Dewayne Jarrett. Ross doesn't have the top end talent level of the top cornerbacks in the league or even any of those receivers, but he is good enough and is by far the most pro-ready cornerback we have ever seen with 75 AWR. That will make him a hot commodity in this league, and if he isn't taken here he will see his name called not long after. He could have 90 AWR after two seasons, giving him a long, long career at the top of his game. That's not something to pass up.
1.8 - SS Sabby Piscitelli - We make our return to the Top 10 of the draft after being on the outside looking in last year for the first time ever. I will be honest and say I do not have a player I am really targeting here, but a group of players I am after and I am fine taking whichever one falls to me. I would be thrilled if that is someone like Dewayne Jarrett or Corey Graham, but I don't see that happening. In this scenario we end up with Sabby Piscitelli, despite having already drafted two safeties in the first round and having the $11m man Brian Dawkins on our roster. If Piscitelli ends up being the guy it's very likely that two of those guys would have to be traded. Probably not the ideal pick, but I am pretty comfortable going BPA here no matter what. As we have seen a lot so far, Sabby is the best safety we have ever seen enter the class. He lacks ideal strength and isn't near as plug and play as every other player off the board so far, but his elite athleticism combined with a 6'3" frame is about as good as it gets. He's a unique talent and won't make it past pick 8 if he's on the board.
1.9 - WR Jacoby Jones - I don't know how realistic the Steelers being on the clock here is in a world where they trade for Eli Manning, but for now I'm just going to roll with it. The Steelers are in the fortunate situation where they have enough holes on their roster they can take the best player who falls to them. I'm not sure that Jones is that guy considering his low STR/AGI and very raw hands, but there is no denying he is talented. At 6'4" tall with 95 SPD it's not often you see a player of his talent as just the third best wide receiver in the class. Meanwhile, the Steelers tried everything they could last season to find a legitimate deep threat, including trading for career kick returner Dante Hall. Hall actually made the most of his opportunities in Pittsburgh, but I think GM Tim Miller knows he's not the long term answer at the position. He does however show that Miller is willing to take the unconventional approach and start a raw but explosive talent, which is exactly the kind of guy Jones is. He should develop into a stud in two or three seasons, just as the Steelers are putting the best version of their roster together.
1.10 - OT Tony Ugoh - This is a really tough pick to predict, because I don't think the Cowboys actually stay put here and make a selection. They have shown they are going to do whatever it takes to stay in Dallas and go 0-20 against the Washington Redskins (
), and have been perfectly clear about their intentions to use their draft capital to acquire veteran talent. Still, they currently have the pick and I have to pick someone for them. Unfortunately, most of the plug and play guys are gone outside of some outside linebackers, a position I don't see as having the ability to make a huge impact for them no matter how good the player is. So I have them taking one of the extremely physically talented offensive lineman still on the board in Tony Ugoh. Now this may surprise some, but I think we have seen over the past few seasons that physically talented rookie OL can be very successful. It's also a long-term need for Dallas, so I think it's a win-win. But I don't think they stay at number ten, especially with their current options here. I expect them to trade it for a veteran talent who can help them win in 2007 more than any rookie can.
1.11 - HB Marshawn Lynch - The Panthers made picks at the 9th and 10th spots last year, and this year the hold the 11th selection. HB Marshawn Lynch has been a popular pick for the team that stormed back to a playoff berth last year, and I actually think it makes a ton of sense for them. They also have found success drafting a running back in this range previously with the selection of Steven Jackson 14th overall back in 2004. Lynch isn't the clear cut most physically talented back in this class, but he does perhaps hold the distinction of being the only very talented back with above average metrics in both the CAR and BTK attributes. My only hesitation with this pick is that the Panthers already have Thomas Jones, who is a fairly talented back in his own right. But he hasn't exactly produced to this point in his career, and is commanding a top end salary on an expiring contract. I wouldn't blame the Panthers one bit for moving on from him with this selection.
1.12 - OLB Paul Posluszny - The 49ers are a tough team to mock a player to. They haven't historically drafted a lot in the first round if my memory is serving right, and they also tend to prefer veteran players. I do believe that they prefer polished players, and last year's selection of Todd Watkins supports that theory. With that in mind I think linebacker Paul Posluszny makes a ton of sense here. ROLB Mark Fields has been fortunate to not see any regression through to the age of 35, but early reports out of San Francisco are that he plans to call it a career after this next season is over. Posluszny is a very similar talent and is also extremely polished with 78 AWR/83 TAK out of the gate. He should be able to slide right into that 49ers defense and play at a high level from day one.
1.13 - DE Jay Moore - The Vikings have hinted at a desire to trade out of this position, but if things fall this way I don't think they will be tempted to at all. They seem to be much higher on this DE class than I am, at least in the Top 10-15 picks, so I think they will be thrilled to have their pick of the litter here at 13. I originally thought they may prefer someone like Lamar Woodley given that he is the least flawed of the bunch, but it seems they have Moore at the top of their rankings. His SPD/STR combination is undeniably elite, even if he leaves a little to be desired with his first step off the line of scrimmage. The biggest problem for Moore will be his 60 TAK rating, but that should be fixable with a couple seasons of playing time. The good news with Moore is that his 64 AWR is head and shoulders above what we saw with the top defensive end talents last year. Neal will be thrilled to land Moore at pick 13.
1.14 - CB David Irons - How free agency goes for the Falcons will probably have a lot to say about the direction they go with this pick. If they decide to take compensation for their defensive end Ty Warren I could see them taking one of the very talented defensive ends in this class. But in this scenario I have them matching on Warren and looking to fill a need elsewhere. Looking at their depth chart it's hard to find a position that sticks out more than cornerback. They let Allen Rossum walk in FA, and the only other player they have there above 70 OVR is former first round pick Mike Hawkins. He's a great talent, but Nic knows you need more than that to win in this league. Irons doesn't have the physical traits the Falcons might covet, but he is athletic enough that combined with his high 67 AWR he is a good option here. He will be able to be developed into a 95 SPD/95 ACC high AWR CB at 5'11" and you can't go wrong with that kind of potential.
1.15 - DE Lamar Woodley - The Dolphins have been in the market for a stud defensive end, and I think they are well positioned here to land one. While Woodley lacks elite or even above average lateral movement ability, he still has an elite combination of speed and strength which will make him a force both rushing the passer and stopping the run. His 67 TAK is also much closer to what you would expect from a 1st round talent. His 6'2", 274 lb build is nothing to sneeze at either. I think the Dolphins will be plenty happy to get the kind of DE they've been looking for here with the 15th pick.
1.16 - HB Tony Hunt - The Colts missed the playoffs for the second year in a row last season, and the run game probably was a big reason why. They struggled to find a lead back after trading away Edgerrin James in the off-season, as no back on their roster amassed over 400 yards over the course of the season, and no back found the endzone more than twice. I am not sure this is the best value pick here this early, but I do think it is a position the Colts need to address this off-season. It's a bit of a toss-up between Hunt and Adrian Peterson, but at least prior to workouts Hunt has the slight edge in most attributes. He's a little bigger while being a bit more athletic. The one thing you would be sacrificing is the +4 BTK Peterson brings to the table, but I think that's something you can live with. A bit of a reach for me overall, but after the rushing attack they put on the field last season I can't blame them one bit.
