A few seasons back, I did an article that analyzed Q1 results and the impact they had on a team making a post season. Now that a few more seasons are in the books, I wanted to take the time to update the information with more robust data. This data looks at everything from the 2002 through the 2006 season.
Frequency of Records (2002-2006)
4-0: 16 teams (10%)
3-1: 39 teams (24%)
2-2: 50 teams (31%)
1-3: 35 teams (22%)
0-4: 20 teams (13%)
Takeaways:
- Starting the season with a 2-2 record is the most common outcome to begin with.
- Not surprisingly, starting the season undefeated is the most difficult with only 10% of teams starting 4-0.
Teams that started 4-0:
- Since 2002 through 2006, only 16 teams have started the season with a perfect 4-0 record.
- Only 14 unique teams (44%) of the league have started the season undefeated.
- Only the Packers have had multiple undefeated starts. They currently have started the season undefeated three times.
- Of the 16 teams that have begun undefeated, 14 (88%) of those teams went on to make the post season.
- Only two teams have started undefeated and missed the post season, those two teams are the 49ers and Buccaneers.
- Of the teams that have won a Super Bowl, only the Ravens have started a season undefeated.
Teams that started 3-1:
- Since 2002 through 2006, 39 teams have started the season with a 3-1 record.
- Of the teams that have started 3-1, 62% have gone on to make the post season.
- Teams that have most frequently started the season 3-1:
Jets (3 times)
Raiders (3 times)
Saints (3 times)
Patriots (3 times)
- 23% of the teams that have started the season 3-1 have only started a season with this record once.
Teams that started 2-2:
- Since 2002 through 2006, 50 teams have started the season with a 2-2 record.
- Of the teams that have started 2-2, 34% have gone on to make the post season.
- Teams that have most frequently started the season 2-2:
Redskins (3 times)
Falcons (3 times)
Bills (3 times)
Chargers (3 times)
- 24% of the teams that have started the season 2-2 have only started a season with this record once.
- 2 of the 3 times that the Redskins have started the season 2-2, they have made the playoffs and one time they went on to win a Super Bowl.
Teams that started 1-3:
- Since 2002 through 2006, 35 teams have started the season with a 1-3 record.
- Of the teams that have started 1-3, 11.43% have gone on to make the playoffs.
- Teams that have most frequently started the season 1-3:
Steelers (3 times)
Titans (3 times)
Buccaneers (3 times)
- 40% of the teams that have started the season 1-3 have only started a season with this record once.
- Only the Rams have started off with a 1-3 record and still made the Super Bowl.
Teams that started 0-4:
- Since 2002 through 2006, 20 teams have started the season with a 0-4 record.
- Of the teams that have started 0-4, .05% have gone on to make the playoffs.
- Teams that have most frequently started the season 0-4:
Chiefs (3 times)
Cowboys (3 times)
- 40% of the teams that have started the season 0-4 have only started a season with this record once.
- Panthers are the only team to have started off with a 0-4 record and make the playoffs.
Q1 Records for teams that made it to the Super Bowl:
Q1 2002:
Colts: 2-2
Rams: 3-1 (SB Champ)
Q1 2003:
Ravens: 4-0 (SB Champ)
Rams: 1-3
Q1 2004:
Redskins: 2-2 (SB Champ)
Dolphins: 4-0
Q1 2005:
Cardinals: 2-2 (SB Champ)
Patriots: 3-1
Q1 2006:
Redskins: 3-1 (SB Champ)
Raiders: 3-1
Big Takeaways:
- Finishing Q1 with a 2-2 record is the most common outcome.
- If you finish Q1 with:
4-0 you will have a 88% chance of making the post season.
3-1 you will have a 62% chance of making the post season.
2-2 you will have a 34% chance of making the post season.
1-3 you will have a 11.43% chance of making the post season.
0-4 you will have a .05% chance of making the post season.
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