Smashmouth Football League Articles

Disclaimers: I'm going to do something different this year. Instead of trying to predict what teams do, as I have done in the past, I will instead share what I think you should do. I thought it would be nice to see things from a different perspective. I know that when someone inquires about a player I had once considered untouchable or I was otherwise happy with, sometimes I would stew on it and start digging deeper and decide to trade them after all. Maybe that's just me.

All analysis is based on pre-skew workouts. I didn't use private workouts and if I did I wouldn't share that information.

I don't believe in true "Best Player Available" until late in the round. Otherwise it will be BPA at a position of need for this upcoming season or the immediate future.

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^{1.01 HB Jonathan Stewart}

Analysis: There's a lot of rumors and assumption about who the pick is going to be. Apolo is playing this close to the vest, and I obviously have no idea what he has to gain from it. If he's considering trading the pick and doesn't want to indicate his target at his next pick (1.05), that would make sense. But I get the impression he isn't seriously looking to trade that pick. The 2 biggest needs on this team are at RB and OL. It's more likely the OL survive the next 3 picks than it is that the HBs do.


^{1.02 CB Aqib Talib}

Analysis: I think this is buyer's remorse for Kansas City. GM Justin Herr traded CB Carlos Rogers & a 2nd to Arizona for 1.02. Talib is a similar talent to Rogers, but would be starting fresh on the progression, AND the Chiefs lost a 2nd in the process. This was a sneaky move by the Cardinals.


^{1.03 WR James Hardy}

Analysis: No secret here and it's probably unlikely this happens. I traded 1.03 to get up to grab James Hardy. No bullshit. In 2006 we were 72 yards away from breaking the team total yardage record previously set by the Colts. Since the loss of Terrell Owens (and Drew Bledsoe) the offense has taken a dip, hence the reasoning behind targeting the fast, tall WR. I'm comfortable sharing that was my plan. I'm also comfortable that it won't influence what happens at 1.01 or 1.02.


^{1.04 HB Matt Forte}

Analysis: The Titans just made out like bandits in trading Steven Jackson to the Denver Broncos. Although the Titans originally traded quite a bit to get him (Shawn Merriman + 1.01 for Keith Bulluck + Steven Jackson). It wasn't known at the time that the pick would be 1.01, but it was looking like a real possibility. But what's done is done. The Titans traded Drew Bledsoe and are rolling with Charlie Whitehurst. The best way to avoid getting back on the hot seat for a 3rd time would be to ride a strong run game and defense.


^{1.05 RT Carl Nicks}

Analysis: As mentioned above I think the Cardinals top 2 needs are at HB and OL. Nicks is my favorite OL of the class and an immediate upgrade over RT Ken Shackleford. I still think they need 1 more OL as LG Guy Whimper has the skillset but 2 years later he's still only at 59 AWR.


^{1.06 TE Gary Barnridge}

Analysis: Barnridge is a very athletic TE and would fit in with the rest of the pass-happy Cardinals offense. He would give new Cardinals QB Rex Grossman a reliable safety valve while also having the ability to stretch the field. This is truly a first in that the earliest a TE has ever been drafted in the SFL was 1.17 by the New York Jets (Benjamin Watson).


^{1.07 LE Chris Long}

Analysis: I think the Bears are going to be playoff bound after trading Alex Smith in a deal for Matt Hasselbeck. The team is actually stocked full of talent despite failing to do better than 6 wins in the past 3 seasons. SS could be another area the team is looking to address but LE could be more of a game changer.


^{1.08 WR Jordy Nelson}

Analysis: It's so tempting to go with a QB here. By the time David Carr hits 90 AWR he'll likely be age 31. But last year was a lost season and another one would be difficult to dig out of. Carr could become a good QB but it's going to take patience. Nelson would give him another good target to pair with WR Maurice Stovall.


^{1.09 RG Chilo Rachal}

Analysis: I like Rachal nearly as much as Nicks and I think he's clearly the next best OL. One could make the case that Rachal is better than Nicks and it's a matter of preference. I could see them going WR if Jordy Nelson or James Hardy were to fall this far, but that OL needs some serious prioritizing.


^{1.10 RE Calais Campbell}

Analysis: The Patriots lost MLB Teddy Bruschi this off-season and he's not worth starting at MLB any longer, I just don't really care for the MLBs a whole lot. They're good but they aren't great. Even in a weak draft class I can't justify taking one in the top 10. I could see taking an OLB as well, but it's the same situation as the MLBs. Campbell has great athleticism and size. The STR is a concern, but this pick is made with the hopes that he helps generate some pressure in the pass game, where the Patriots ranked 32nd in QB Rating allowed in 2007.


^{1.11 SS Dominique Barber}

Analysis: I would be surprised if Barber doesn't go in the top 10. There are only 2 other Safeties in the league at 93 SPD and he's got decent height at 6'0". The Raiders are in a similar position to the Patriots as they were the 31st team in QB Rating allowed. It seems wild that those 2 teams struggled defending the pass so much. But Barber could help out in that regard.


^{1.12 RG Daniel Dye}

Analysis: Talent is starting to drop off pretty quickly here. The Lions are all-in this off-season, acquiring WR Reggie Wayne, HB Edgerrin James and now LE Tyler Brayton. There's not much that needs upgrading here. I think the OL could use some upgrades and Daniel Dye is my favorite of the bunch. His PBK is pretty low but the rest looks good.


^{1.13 WR Andre Caldwell}

Analysis: I think the most obvious needs are FS and WR. If it were a safety I would probably role with Craig Steltz but I think Caldwell is the option here. Miami has a big beastly WR in Calvin Johnson and a speedster like Caldwell could give them a nice balance in their pass game.


^{1.14 LOLB Chris Chamberlain}

Analysis: It's apparently all-in time for Jacksonville in year one. After trading McNabb in a deal for Sorgi, it looked like he was the future QB for the team. Now Sorgi and a 1st have been traded for Kitna, who is in his last season before retirement. It's win-now mode. The WRs, RB and OL are good. My biggest concern would be LE and OLBs. If it were DE I would Lawrence Jackson and he's solid, but I would probably opt for the #1 OLB here.


^{1.15 DT Red Bryant}

Analysis: I think the biggest upgrades need to be on the OL, DT & ROLB. There are some other spots, but these 3 stand out to be most. I think Bryant would be a good fit and would immediately step into a starting job. I'm not all that impressed with the DTs whereas OLB and OL could get by with what's there for now.


^{1.16 RE Lawrence Jackson}

Analysis: I'd be looking to upgrade the OL, Safeties, DTs and LE (if Dwight Freeney doesn't get matched). I'm not impressed by the OLs here. Steltz would be a good add at safety, maybe Trevor Laws at DT, but I think the move here is letting Freeney walk. Get a future 1st in what will likely be a stronger draft class (it has to be!), and replacing the level of production will not be all that difficult. Freeney has the ratings but he hasn't been a difference maker like you'd expect.


^{1.17 ROLB Keith Rivers}

Analysis: Ravens are able to address another need here with Rivers. He's not a sexy pick but he's a solid guy who can be a contributor and day 1 starter for the Ravens.


^{1.18 WR Malcolm Kelly}

Analysis: The Vikings are a very good team and there are not many spots I feel need to be upgraded right now. I was thinking safety but both FS can be starters and one could slide over to SS. This may be a true BPA pick here and the Vikings don't have a ton of depth so it may actually fill a need as well. He doesn't have great speed, but could skew up and with rookie progression + some points he could be a good WR.


^{1.19 MLB Dan Connor}

Analysis: MLB could be an area to address as the Jets run some 3-4 base in the Balanced D and both Donnie Edwards and James Farrior are past their prime. Another avenue could be OLB as an upgrade over Dontarrious Thomas but I think Connor is great value this late.


^{1.20 RG Corey Gibas}

Analysis: The draft is getting thinner and an area I think the Ravens could improve is the OL. Gibas has good athleticism and size. He's a little raw and the PBK isn't high, but I think he's the 4th best OL and even the 3rd OL had similar deficiencies.


^{1.21 SS Craig Steltz}

Analysis: This is good value (in this draft anyways) that also fills a need. Adam Archuleta shouldn't be starting and Steltz has pretty decent athleticism for a tall safety. He could step in and start right away.


^{1.22 DT Jason Shirley}

Analysis: Seattle likes strong DEs as evidenced by the DT they have at LE now (and who started last year). OLB Mike Humpal is tempting here, but I think Shirley could be the bigger upgrade as LE Ronald Fields doesn't do anything for me.


^{1.23 QB Brian Brohm}

Analysis: I think the Bengals trade Sorgi and go with a starting QB. There hasn't been one taken yet and the talent is pretty thin. It's easier to progress a rookie so I think he could leap the other QBs on the Bengals roster after 1 season.


^{1.24 WR Stevie Johnson}

Analysis: Why so serious? The Buccaneers don't have a lot of talent at WR and I think my boy Stevie could be the top WR for the Bucs. There's several areas the team could look to address. Safety, OLB and DE could be areas the team looks to address here or at 1.31.


^{1.25 FS DaJuan Morgan}

Analysis: Morgan is an interesting prospect. He's 6'0" so he's not super tall and 87 SPD isn't a burner, but there are few of those at the Safety positions. What makes Morgan stand out is his 72 STR. He has higher AGI and ACC, opening the possibility for a SPD skew up, and his JMP and TAK are pretty good and CTH isn't bad either.


^{1.26 HB Ryan Torain}

Analysis: Stephen Davis has been the model of consistency, carrying the ball over 300 times every year and has been successful over his SFL career. But his time is coming to an end and while Kyle Orton continues to progress, I would imagine the focal point of the offense will remain the run game. Ryan Torain is cut from a similar physical tools mold of Stephen Davis and may be a perfect replacement.


^{1.27 LOLB Mike Humpal}

Analysis: The alternative option to their pick at 1.22 falls to 1.27. It's not a great draft obviously so it's not a steal, but it's value in this draft.


^{1.28 HB Rashard Mendenhall}

Analysis: Again, no bullshit. I like Mendenhall and feel he's even with Torain in terms of who is the 3rd best RB in this class. After trading Deshaun Foster it's Willis McGahee's job now, but a good backup is always needed in case of injury and to spell the featured guy.


^{1.29 QB Erik Ainge}

Analysis: No surprise here, the Bills traded Steve McNair (for excellent value by the way) and need a franchise QB. The 3 top QBs are pretty similar and I think Ainge gets the edge over Chad Henne due to his 6'5" frame compared to Henne at 6'2" and Ainge's stronger arm strength.


^{1.30 WR Jerome Simpson}

Analysis: I think WR is the obvious choice here but the talent isn't great. The Texans are built to win now so they'd like to find some production at the position here if possible. 6'3" Justin Harper is interesting at 96 SPD and could be an option, but that 85 ACC is concerning for me. I think Simpson at 6'1" 93 SPD 91 ACC is the safer choice.


^{1.31 LE Cliff Avril}

Analysis: The Bucs need some help at Safety, OLB and DE. I think Avril is really good value in this draft and fell because some teams have a preference for higher STR whereas some prefer athleticism. Avril has the athleticism and it's tough to be choosy at this point as the Bucs need guys who can produce enough this year to keep their job.


^{1.32 MLB Curtis Lofton}

Analysis: This isn't a need for the Saints, but there just isn't much talent left. The Saints have a good team obviously as they're the defending Super Bowl champs, as improbable as it was with a young QB, but that explains how good the rest of the roster is. This is a true BPA pick.