Welcome to another stat lab article, last season made a track about the impact of draft picks per position, team and draft. Now this time im trying to find out the impact home adventadge have on the game. For it tracked all the stats from 2002 to 2008 and this is how it look. It won’t be a very large article, but hopefully help to answer the question.
Note: During the 7 seasons, 3 home teams tied a game Dolphins – Chiefs – Ravens so that modify a bit % percentage, a very small detail but as Depeche Mode song, everything counts.
Lets start by winning % of home field per season:
2002: 124 wins for 48.4 %
2003: 138 wins for 54.3 %
2004: 136 wins for 53.1 %
2005: 118 wins for 46.1%
2006: 124 wins for 48.4%
2007: 140 wins for 54.6 %
2008: 142 wins for 55.4 %
Total: 922 wins for 51.5%
*If we consider the 50% as the mid point, the max variations have been -3.9% in 2005 and 5.4% in 2008
Now this are the numbers for playoffs games:
2002: 5 wins for 50%
2003: 3 wins for 30%
2004: 4 wins for 40%
2005: 7 wins for 70%
2006: 4 wins for 40%
2007: 4 wins for 40%
2008: 8 wins for 80%
Total: 35 wins for 50%
*On this stat, at this point we have exactly a 50% of home games wins. With the worst season having 3 wins (2003) and the best 8 wins (2008)
What about the superbowl? We know that tecnichally isn’t a home game but administrative there’s a home and away team.
After 7 superbowl played, 4 “local” teams have won for 57.1%
Now, what are the chances to make playoffs depending the amount of home wins each team has?
0 Teams have won the 8 home games in the 7 seasons played
17 Teams have won 7 home games and the 17 made the playoffs for a 100%
29 Teams have won 6 home games and 25 of them made the playoffs for 86.2%
54 Teams have won 5 home games and 32 of them made the playoffs for 59.2%
40 Teams have won 4 home games and 7 of them made the playoffs for 17.5%
49 Teams have won 3 home games and only 3 of them made the playoffs for 6.1%
20 Teams have won 2 home games and none of them made the playoffs
12 Teams have won 1 home game and none of them made the playoffs
3 Teams went 0-8 at home games and none of them made the playoffs
Excluding playoffs games, this is how each team home wins record look for each team, updated at week 2 of season 2009
Packers 38
Patriots 37
Jets 37
Vikings 36
Falcons 35
Bengals 34
Redskins 34
Pathers 34
Rams 34
Giants 33
Bears 32
Colts 31
Raiders 31
Dolphins 30
Saints 30
Seahawks 30
Browns 29
Titans 29
Chargers 29
Cowboys 29
49ers 29
Eagles 28
Bills 27
Ravens 26
Jaguars 25
Broncos 24
Texans 23
Chiefs 23
Buccs 23
Cardinals 23
Steelers 20
Lions 19
Conclusions:
*After compare the information from previous 7 seasons my perspective is Home Field Advantage doesn’t exist. The % variation offered in each season doesn’t prove a solid difference maker, I would need constant +5% and sometimes +10% for consider it a factor. The variation between season and season is probably based on schedule.
*For playoffs games at 50% I think exactly the same exposed above, there’s no advantage.
*Based on each team track of home records, I conclude there’s not an exclusive advantadge. In other words there isn’t an stadium that gives an edge. I would need to see constant 7/8 wins seasons in same stadium for conclude there’s a difference maker.
*I can’t find an specific number of wins that determine playoffs, but based on previous seasons is preferably to win at least 5 home games for make playoffs.
And that’s all, please share your point of view about this topic if you’re interested
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