The 2012 offseason is coming and with it perhaps the most significant rules shift in the entire history of the SFL. Taking effect this offseason will be a new regression system that is age based starting at age 30. In case you have been living under a Madden rock, here are the details of that regression system:
The following changes will be implemented with the regression that happens between the 2011 Super Bowl and the start of the 2012 off-season:
All players will begin regressing at the age of 30, regardless of YP. Regression will be based on the attributes that make effect gameplay and ability of the player and will be distinguished between progressable attributes and physical attributes.
Note: Progressable attributes are defined as those that can be improved with progression points. Physical attributes are defined as those that cannot be improved with progression points.
Starting at age 30, listed progressable attributes will drop by -1 per season and listed physical attributes will drop by -2 per season. Once a player reaches age 32, this will increase to -2/-3.
The only exception to this rule is for QBs, Ks and Ps. Their progressable and physical attributes are reversed, receiving -2/-1 at age 30 and -3/-2 at age 32.
To further illustrate this, please refer to this guide.
Regression at Age 30 by Position
QB: -2 AWR, BTK, THA & -1 SPD, AGI, THP
HB: -1 AWR, CTH, CAR, BTK, PBK & -2 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
FB, TE: -1 AWR, CTH, CAR, BTK, RBK & -2 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
WR: -1 AWR, CTH & -2 SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP
OL: -1 AWR, PBK, RBK & -2 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
DL: -1 AWR, TAK & -2 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
LB: -1 AWR, CTH, TAK & -2 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
CB, S: -1 AWR, CTH, TAK & -2 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI, JMP
K, P: -2 AWR, KAC & -1 KPW
Regression at Age 32 by Position
QB: -3 AWR, BTK, THA & -2 SPD, AGI, THP
HB: -2 AWR, CTH, CAR, BTK, PBK & -3 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
FB, TE: -2 AWR, CTH, CAR, BTK, RBK & -3 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
WR: -2 AWR, CTH & -3 SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP
OL: -2 AWR, PBK, RBK & -3 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
DL: -2 AWR, TAK & -3 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
LB: -2 AWR, CTH, TAK & -3 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI
CB, S: -2 AWR, CTH, TAK & -3 SPD, ACC, STR, AGI, JMP
K, P: -3 AWR, KAC & -2 KPW
In addition to this, all players will receive -1 STA/TGH/INJ starting at age 30 and -2 STA/TGH/INJ starting at age 32.
Obviously there is a lot of information here to digest and no doubt GM’s have been preparing for this moment as they seek to understand how the new landscape of the SFL will look as a result of this new regression system. This article is going to look at how could this alter the way GM’s manage their teams and also look at how it will influence each team’s current roster.
Note: Before I get into the specifics here, one final note regarding the way regression will work. If a player is currently 29 years old during the 2011 season, they will turn 30 in the offseason and then regression will be applied before they play the 2012 season. It will NOT be applied following the season where they were 30, but following the season they were 29. So all players who are currently 29 will be subject to regression this offseason.
How could this alter the way GM’s manage their teams?
First, the age of the player on draft day will matter far more than it used to. Years played no longer matters at all. It’s all about the age of the player. So a player who is 21 years old at the draft will be worth considerably more than a 23 year old with similar rantings since you will get two more years out of the 21 year old player before they regress. We saw this come up often in the 2011 draft and I’m sure it will be on the minds of GM’s in the 2012 draft as well.
Second, functional, high awareness players will be harder to find and more difficult to keep in the long-term. With these new changes, veterans will age much less gracefully. For most players after three full seasons of regression, they will be difficult to play having lost 7 in SPD, STR, AGI, and ACC or in the case of QB’s losing 7 in AWR, THP, and THA. An elite player with 99 SPD, 99 AWR, and 99 ACC could get through four regressions, but most starters in the league will not be able to do so. If you take into account the larger contract numbers for higher overall players, you can easily envision a scenario where more players are cut before they complete their full contract because they have regressed beyond their declining abilities.
Third, the value of players who are currently 28 years old during the 2011 season and in any future seasons will drop due to the coming regression. Teams will not likely pay high draft picks for players that were previously in their prime since the regression system will hit sooner and harder. The flip side to this will be that draft picks should be more valuable as well as as younger players 25 and under, particularly those who are signed long-term to a second contract. How all this will look will shake out over the next couple of seasons, but there will definitely be a shift.
Fourth, I'm just curious what the free agency pool will look like this year and then on into future years. Will there be a ton of veterans there? Will there be any space for younger, cheaper options? I think this could be where the 5th, 6th, and 7th round picks become valuable, not only for draft gems, but for cheap backups who might not be available through free agency.
How will this influence each team’s current roster?
Each team will be influenced differently based on the makeup of their current roster. Here is a look at how many starters will be regressing by team this offseason:
AFC East
Bills 14 (Tied for the most)
Dolphins 4
Patriots 10
Jets 7
AFC North
Ravens 4
Bengals 4
Browns 11
Steelers 7
AFC South
Texans 5
Colts 9
Jaguars 2
Titans 10
AFC West
Broncos 9
Chiefs 10
Raiders 8
Chargers 9
NFC East
Cowboys 9
Giants 10
Eagles 14 (Tied for the most)
WFT 9
NFC North
Bears 7
Lions 5
Packers 1 (Least)
Vikings 6
NFC South
Falcons 6
Panthers 7
Saints 10
Buccaneers 4
NFC West
Cardinals 8
Rams 13
49ers 10
Seahawks 6
As you can see the Bills, Eagles, and Rams will experience the most significant amount of regression and the Packers and Jaguars will experience the least. Now some of the players in this least may well retire and so there won’t be a difference between the old and new regression systems, but for the rest of the players it will be new. I’ve very interested to see how GM’s handle this. I tend to think there will be significant offseason activity even over and above previous years when GM’s figure out there game plans.
One additional note I thought of. The position that will experience the most players regressing is the offensive line. A couple reasons for this are 1) There are five starters at the position, so the volume of starters is the most among positions and 2) Offensive linemen have historically played well into their early to mid 30's as starters. I don't know if teams will automatically jettison their OL starters but it will be interesting to follow what happens at that position.
Obviously QB is the position that is the most important and it will be hit hard by this regression but I'm not yet clear how this will shake out. QB's that are 34 or 35 should be OK compared to the previous regression system, but my guess would be that the most effected QB's will be the one's who are currently 29, 30, and 31. I think they would have lasted longer under the old system and will have most if not all their regression under the new.
The landscape of the SFL has forever changed this offseason and I tend to think for the better. What that looks like will be something cool to watch in the weeks and months to come.
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