I began this with intention of making a standard team news article. I then turned it into a bit of a potential 1st round pick preview. It is no where near the level of the mocj drafts as this is not my strong suit but I'm posting it here in hopes that it might give others who like me, do not consider themselves draft experts the courage to post their own version of a draft preview.
Here you go:
2012 SFL Draft 1st Round Player Review- Tampa Bay Bucs Styler-
The Draft Is Here!
White Draft Day, struck about 8 hours ago we are still about 11 hours away from the first pick being made. There does not seem to be as much interest in getting into the top spot as there normally is as GM Scotty Gardiner is not having a ton of interest from GM’s trying to acquire the #1 pick from what our sources are telling us. It could very well be due to rumors of the top WR’s and CB’s missing something from making them truly elite. That is not to say the top guys will not be stars as they simply will be amazing, we just hear there’s a tad bit missing to each one of them. We here at Buc Nation can not comment on the WR or CB class as team officials have not scouted any player at either position from our understanding. We have been told GM Mellon has scouted TE’s heavily followed by MLB, DT and DE while also having an eye on QB.
There are obviously two TE’s in this draft whom both will be MFL game changers. The Bucs were extremely successful last year with 5th round rookie TE Lee Smith as he totaled over 700 yards and 50 reception both which led rookie TE’s and also atop all rookie leaders, plus he missed a couple games due to injury. As a recent mock draft by Philadelphia Eagles GM Brad Barber mentioned, while as good as TE Smith is/was he made the end zone just one and had a relatively low yards per catch. I guess it is now a “worse kept secret” that GM Mellon knew this and wanted to address it in the draft. It looks like both stud TE’s,
Coby Fleener, 6’6”, 23 years old, out of Stanford and
Michael Egnew, 6’5”, also 23 years old out of Missouri will be drafted in the first 20 picks. GM Mellon thinks there a solid chance both will go inside the top 15 with one team trading up at some point today or this evening taking one of them.
The top two DT’s in the draft seem to be
Fletcher Cox and
Brandon Thompson. Cox is 5’4”, 295 #, 22 years old and out of Mississippi State. He is fast for a DT with 74 SPD and will have ACC flirting with 80 and STR of 90+. Thompson is 22 years old, 6’2”, 311 # and our of Clemson. While he may lack a bit in size at 6’2” his projected STR of 99 is insanely impressive. He already possess above average TAK with 79. DT has been a tough spot for GM Mellon for a number of years, not just during his two years in Tampa Bay. With the idea of GM Mellon moving from a 3-4 defense to more of a standard 4-3 there will be a focus on more QB disturbing pass rushing DT’s rather than a large ogre type of 350 # 3-4 nose tackle used to playing in GM Mellon’s defenses. While we believe the top part of the first round is too early for one of these players to be drafted, if either is available in the top 25 picks there is a good chance one of them till be a Buccaneer.
As frustrating as DT production has been for GM Mellon over the years DE has been even worse. After sitting down and spending time analyzing things GM Mellon came to the conclusion it has to be the playbooks he chooses as he has had DE’s with impressive stats, such as LE Larry English’s 85 DPF and 90 ACC or Michael Johnson’s 84 SPD but for whatever the reason these players have not produced impressive stats. Similar to the info above about DT’s GM Mellon is looking at bringing in a typical fast LE or a typical larger stronger RE to help, hopefully bring more standardized production to the Tampa Bay DL. The top two names being mentioned as sure fire first round DE’s this year have been
Malik Jackson, 23 years old, 6’5”, 265 # our of Tennessee and
Jared Crick, 23 years old out, 6’6”, 285 # out of Nebraska. Jackson boats great SPD with 83 plus good STR at 81, above avg AGI of 78 and nice ACC of 83. GM Mellon believes Jackson is the clear cut best DE available. Crick is no slouch though as he has adequate SPD of 76, especially for a RE, great STR of 83 and good ACC of 80, again, especially for a RE. GM Mellon believes Crick, if drafted in the 1st round would be near the end in the 30-32 range. One player who GM Mellon believes has been kept off the mock drafts is
Michael Brockers. Brockers is 22 years old, 6’5” and 297 # out of LSU. His projected attributes include 70 SPD (you can get by with this at RE), 88 STR, yes 88, 71 AGI (again fine for a RE) and 84 ACC. So, we have a guy who is younger than the other two, much stronger with the same or better ACC. GM Mellon has said to look for Brockers to not make it to the 2nd round.
MLB is a spot that GM Mellon places a much higher value on that most other GM’s however he isa stickler for certain minimum attributes with rare exceptions. GM Mellon looks for 85 SPD, 85 ACC and someone one can get to at least 80 AWR. One MLB area GM Mellon is not as concerned as other GM’s is STR. The Redskins and Bucs both have had success with fast, athletic MLB’s who lack STR. GM Mellon will make an exception for high SPD & ACC for slower veteran MLB with maxed out AWR. With that being said, let’s face it MLB
Luke Kuechly is in a class all by himself. He is 6’3”, 23 years old, 242 # out of Boston College. He is projected to have 86 SPD, 82 STR, 88 ACC, 84 AGI 68 AWR and 89 TAK. Those are already SFL hall of fame worthy MLB attributes. If Kuechly drops from the top 10 it would be the biggest mistake in SFL draft history and GM Mellon guarantees he does not go past 1.11. GM Mellon even made contract with the Lions about a swap for the #1 overall pick and it would have been Kuechly but in the end the Bucs did not have the collateral or at least could not let go of the collateral to make the move. Looking past Kuechly are some guys that no one is mentioning and we are not sure why.
Don’t’a Hightower is 6’4”, 260 #, out of Alabama and is only 21 years old. He has 84 SPD, 87 ACC with 83 TAK. GM Mellon has not worked out Hightower but a positive skew could have him jump up drastically in the same fashion of what occurred last year with LB Aldon Smith and the Bucs. There is another potential MLB stud in the making with Vontaze Burfict. Burict is 6’1”, 251 #, 23 years old and out of Arizona State. While his attributes are not flashy, upon closer look they are special at 82 SPD, 80 STR, 70 AWR, 80 AGI, 82 ACC and 83 TAK. Keep in mind these are rookie attributes. There are only 8 players at the position with 81 SPD, 81 STR, 81 AGI, 81 ACC and 81 TAK. The list drops to 6 if those attributes take a bit of n increase to 82. That list of 6 includes name such as Jordan Beck and James Laurinaitis.
Other players at positions of need or want who have the eye of GM Mellon include:
FS Brandon Hardin- 6’3”, 22 years old, 207 # from Oregon State. Hardin has the obvious size but should also end up having 90 SPD, 90+ ACC and great tackling of 80+
FS Tashaun Gipson- 6’1”, 22 years old, 207 # from Wyoming is going to be a special and unique talent. He comes in with projected attributes which include 90 SPD, 97 AGI & 93 ACC but also STR of 60+. A positive skew could make Gipson a top 10 pick in the eye of GM Mellon, which he understands not a lot of GM’s will share. Like MLB, GM Mellons put a lot of emphasis on FS & SS with the focus ether being on athleticism (SPD & ACC of 90+) or size and strength (6’0” + and 60+ STR)
SS Mark Barron- 6’2”, 23 years old, 230 # from Alabama. What else, other than size does this dude bring to the table as your starting SS? Well how about SPD (91), STR (65), AGI (84), ACC (91) & TAK (80). A 6’2”, 230 # SS with 90+ SPD and ACC? Get out of here. FS/SS SFL icon Adrian Wilson’s speed maxed out at 85 and his ACC maxed out at 90. Wilson was stronger but I see Barron as good if not better than Wilson which we know is saying a lot.
SS Harrison Smith- 6’2”, 22 years old, 213 # from Notre Dame. Another 6’2” SS with SPD. Smith is currently rated with: 90 SPD, 85 AGI & 89 ACC so he is not quite the freak Barron looks to be but he already has 87 TAK. Yeah, that is impressive. His STR of 54 is relatively low but he will be a star.
QB Chandler Harnish- 6’0”, 22 years old, 223 # out of Northern Illinois. Boy this is going to be an interesting one. There is no doubting Harnish’s quarterbacking ability with projected AWR of 74, THP of 96 and THA of 86. What there is to doubt includes his size of just 6’0”, very low SPD of 43, STR of 45, AGI of 42 and ACC of 43. We are not sure where the league stand on Harnish. He could be an amazing young QB or he could be a real bust. A true bust is something we do not have in the SFL since attributes prove how things pan out but do these athletic attributes matter in a QB? Some GM’s have been vocal with saying they have concerns while at least just as many have said they have absolutely zero concerns and expect Harnish to be drafted in the top 10. Just how low are Harnish’s attributes when it comes to SPD, STR, AGI & ACC? Veteran QB Byron Leftwhich matches Harnish’s STR of 45 but Harnish would be dead last in SPD, AGI & ACC. Another way to put this into perspective is 36 year old Peyton Manning I faster (55 vs 45), stronger (60 vs 43), more agile (49 vs 42) and has more acceleration (50 vs 43) than Harnish. On top of that there is his below average 6’0” frame. We are not saying Harnish is not going to do well, we are simply saying we do not know what to expect. We have concerns as this could be a true boom or bust situation. We have zero doubt interest will be strong but who will have the ultimate courage to pull the trigger when it comes to tonight’s draft?
QB Kirk Cousins- 6’3”, 24 years old, 213 # out of Michigan State. Here we go; another interesting option. Cousins has current projected attributes of 68 AWR, 91 THP & 90 THA. The THA of 90 for a rookie is what really looks good here. The issue and in my opinion it is a sizeable one is Cousin’s age. He will have only six seasons before he beings regressing. This will be an absolute decision stopper for some GM’s while others will not pay it a bit of attention. Cousins is better than Harnish when it comes to SPD, STR, AGI & ACC which I think will not matter in a player like Cousins. These attributes (55 SPD, 62 STR, 57 AGI & 57 ACC) match up well against other QB’s. An argument could perhaps be said that Cousins would be a safer bet at QB as the AWR is six but he comes in big with a four point increase in throwing accuracy but he is two years older than Harnish. It is going to be fun to see how these two QB’s are drafted and where they end up later tonight.
QB Brock Osweiler- 6’7”, 242 #, 22 years old from Arizona State. Well what do we have here? Could it be yet another interesting QB situation? Why yes it is! Osweiler is big. He is 6’7” & 242 #. Have I mentioned his size? He is big. He has pretty good rookie QB AWR of 68 as well as THP of 92. His THA is rookie average of 85. He is big. Have I mentioned that yet? Want to know what scares me just a tad? This big guy could end up a scrambler which would ruin him, in our opinion. His expected SPD is 63 but I believe that could go up or down 5 since it is not a bolded attribute. Do not get me wrong, normally a 6’7”, 242 # guy running at you is a scary thing for a defender but we all know it takes SPD, AGI & ACC in the 90’s before you (okay, well Tim and Tim only) can begin to attempt to make a scrambler QB work. I for one want to see how Osweiler does but we just can not make up our minds if we want GM Mellon to try this guy out in Tampa Bay.
The Normal 1st Round Type of Players
WR Josh Gordan- Yeah, yeah, we get it. He is big and fast. As Shanaya once sang, “That Don’t Impress Me Much” Okay, well it does but he will be gone way before the Bucs would be in position to draft him.
WR Alshon Jeffery- Another solid, low risk WR who will catch 70 passes for 1200 yards and 8-10 TD’s. If you are the team who drafts Jeffery, here is a suggestion: Try not sucking next year that way you have a tougher pick. (I kid as I know I will not be in position to take this guy either.)
<CB Casey Hayward You know what, let me just get all three CB’s who have been projected to be drafted in the top 10 out of the way. Hayward as well as
Stephon Gilmore,
Josh Norman,
Chris Greenwood,
Dre Kirkpatrick &
Morris Claiborne are all going to be good. If you are a GM this evening who is picking and you see any of their names available they should receive consideration if your pick is anywhere from 3 to 15. If any of these names are available after the 15th pick one can aonly assume there was a very negative skew involved.
The Other WR’s These names include
Ruben Randle,
Stephen Hill,
Justin Blackmon,
Brian QuickMarvin McNutt(bonus points for a cool last name),
Michael Floyd &
Greg Childs, to be honest with you any of these guys are capable of giving team 50-80 catches and 900-1200 yards with 6-10 TD’s and probably would all be considered good picks. Brian Quick has a chance to be special. This draft seems to be loaded with WR’s who are going to perform well for several seasons to come.
LT Matt Kalil- 6’7”, 315 #, 23 years old from USC. This guy is going to be a beat for someone. He comes into the draft with attributes of: 66 SPD, 95 STR, 72 AGI, 76 ACC, 89 PBK & 92 RBK plus pretty good AWR of 64. There is no reason he should make it out of the top 10.
RT Riley Reiff 6’6”, 305 #, 21 years old from Iowa. Reiff is another guy who is going to be good but he is much more raw than Kalil. Reiff is not going to be a top 10 or even top 15 but I do not see how he falls past the top 25. Sure he had low RBK but he more than makes up for that in all other areas. For us what puts him over even more is the fact that he is only 21 years old.
OLB’s The names thrown around the mock drafts thus far at OLB include;
Nigel Bradham,
Bobby Wagner,
Melvin Ingram, <Terrell Manning,
Demario Davis Look, all these guys are good. To us though, it does not get much better than Demario Davis and Bobby Wagner. Davis comes in with expected SPD of 87, STR of 82, AGI of 84 & ACC of 87. Wagner come in with potential attributes of 85 SPD, 84 STR, 83 AGI & 89 ACC. How good are these OLB’s? They are so good guys like Zac Brown (86 SPD, 85 AGI & 86 ACCD) are not getting much atte
