Prediction time
Every season Bill gives us a special treat before week 1, predictions where he severely goes out on a limb with not a care in the world whether the branch breaks and he gets a lil concussion.
While I can't and wouldn't do what he does, I have always thought there was room for one that is a bit more serious. This is that attempt.
I can't condense these into an entire conference, but I may be able to get two of them out tonight...and build a process that is repeatable that I can finish before week 3 is over with.
NFC East
Offense
1. Cardinals
2. 49ers
3. Rams
4. Seahawks
The Cardinals are on the very short list of favorites to reach the SB. This very high-level collection of talented collected & maintained by Tyler/Tyler/Gary is still in very VERY good shape. Not only are the special pass-catchers maintained (Meachem, Marshall, Williams) but the Cardinals put Brandon Jackson in the backfield this offseason with Darren McFadden. Two home-run threats that can also do damage between the tackles. The key to the entire offseason may be their movement to add Ben Roethlisberger, adding that elite backup QB to fix their QB injury narrative of the past few years.
All four teams in this division have a top QB paired with a top WR. The 49ers #1 WR (Sidney Rice) is not quite the Randy Moss peer as the rest of the division, yet the Niners add Kelly, Watkins and Fleener to the mix making this the deepest group of receivers/TE1 in the division. Orton also hands the ball off to Willis McGahee, rounding out what could be a top-5 offense this year and a legit challenger to the Cardinals O.
The Rams take next position on the pole, with superhero Drew Carter receiving from Brees still primed to get 1500 or more yards. The group gets a bit thin behind Carter (I kinda like Nelson for a mid-round pick) but Brees also relies on Clinton Portis to get the engines running. This offense has a Saints SB team feel, whether the formula works as well as it every has.
The Seahawks have AJ Green, and I feel sorry for myself and anyone who ever has to play him for the rest of his career. They support Alex Smith beyond that well, with Crabtree and Sanders providing difficult matchups for any secondary to handle and Renaldo Works/Martellus Bennett also providing difficult looks to cover. However, their entire HB corps is the walking dead, with perhaps JJ Arrington the best poised to take the #1 role. Arrington has averaged 3.53 YPC over his 660 career carries...this gap and the developmental RTs are what keep the Seahawks just a step or two behind the division on offense.
Defense
1. Cardinals
2. 49ers
3. Seahawks
4. Rams
Next.
Jokes aside, this is the type of defense most of us have ever wanted, DL warts aside. The secondary was young a couple years ago, now is just arriving in they're primes and on-field it shows. And the front 7 has studs like Merriman and Umenyiora, Gocong and Chris White. Difficult problems for any offense in the league to get started against.
Through some incredible drafting, the 49ers have developed some real key positions on defense. At CB Haden and Allen are young but approaching their peak development over the next two years. Their front 7 is mixed with vets and members in their prime. All together, the Niners look like a top-10 defense unless their extremely replacement-level SS's hold them back.
The Seahawks love speed, to the detriment of other things like skill or awareness. Their best CB is the returned Tramon Williams, with 95 SPD, 65 AWR, and 98 ACC. Gonna match up well but blow some plays...and this theme is repeated throughout the CB group. Seattle does have some nice players in their front 7, but their effectiveness will be hindered by their DL and having to choose between awareness and physical talent. Their saving grace might just be their investment in Atogwe and Bethea at the two safety positions. Athletic, smart, they could keep Seattle from allowing too many blown deep balls and turn them into a top flight defense.
The Rams defense was mysteriously great a couple years ago. That was also a faster defense than it is now, while the league is faster at WR than it was a few years ago. This trend is going to backfire on the Rams, who have the awareness but not the speed to stick with the routes. They'll get some key turnovers, but unless they find a surprise CB somewhere this year they will be limited to something below .500. Oh, and they probably need two corners, not one.
Predicted Record
1. Cardinals (13-3)
2. 49ers (10-6)
3. Rams (6-10)
4. Seahawks (4-12)
I consider factors like strength of division, strength of schedule, and how the offense and defense fit together.
The Cardinals could get a rare 14-game win prediction if they were not playing the AFC East this year. The same easy where the Dolphins were only a QB away from competing (Palmer is ready) and two other teams beat out the Kevin Mullendore Jets who are a superb roster at every level. Going .500 in that division will be difficult, and the Cardinals also have to outlast 3 top-flight QBs in their own division all with their own great WRs.
The Niners may struggle to get 10 wins in such a tough environment, but they truly look ready in every phase. Elite? That's a different question, but I think we'll find out in the playoffs.
The Rams have enough vets in the front 7 (+Drew Carter) to steal several games. .500 will be difficult to produce though, as the league is full of WRs that are 6'1"+ and 95 SPD+ that the Rams will struggle to cover on 15 yard outs. The deep ball will land against this team this year.
The Seahawks will do damage from time to time. Inconsistency, youth, and gaps on the roster will keep them in the top 10 in the draft this year where they may look to fix the Jonathan Stewart gap from this offseason.
