Prediction time
Before the AFC members start ignoring this series entirely, I felt it entirely fair to switch over to that side of the SFL for the next couple of previews. The AFC East has had one or more dominant teams since I have arrived to the SFL, and somehow that team has rarely been the AFC version of the Cardinals (the Jets) for one circumstance or another.
I promise this will get past the Jets, but let's just admire a team that in these four years went to zero playoff games:
2006: 9-7
2007: 10-6
2009: 10-6
2011: 9-7
Note: They won the SB in 2008, but failed to make the playoffs the year before and after, while getting 33 wins in that three-year period.
If nothing else, this reflects very highly on the AFC East, as other teams had to outpace the Jets enough to tie or beat their record during this time for such a strange feat to be possible, including 2x head-to-head.
Ok, enough about the (often) third best team in the division, let's get to the rankings.
AFC East
Offense
1. Dolphins
2. Patriots
3. Jets
4. Bills
Yep, my conclusion surprised me too. But this is not a division with any dominant offenses.
For the Dolphins, Palmer isn't the only difference-maker from a year ago. The Dolphins still have Hardy and the collective last functional year for both Steven Smith and Anquan Boldin. But the OL has been building but is young (and could hinder their performance) and very athletic. Daniel Thomas is joined by DeShaun Foster to put together the most complete Run/Pass combination this division has.
The Patriots and Jets are super close in my head (think like the 17th and 16th best in the league close so I don't see a clear distinction. As I am providing the ranking, I have to give one, and am going Pats then Jets here on offense.
Pats have Tom Brady, the rookie HB Doug Martin, and still have Donald Brown to back him on. Brady is near the end, but is still elite and has not just Clarence Moore to throw to but a trio of athletes to break defenses. This reminds me of the Sean Peyton Saints I saw in my dreams that had Marques Colston (posession) and a slew of nobodies that their elite QB could throw bombs to at any time. This offense looks like it will work just like that.
The Jets have a lot of athletes on the OL, but few polished stars as they have gone young in recent years. Aaron Brooks and Andre Woodson will keep the team competitive, but are not likely to take over a game against a great defense. Michael Turner is a legit #1 HB, but if he has a bounce-back year it will be pretty reliant on the OL timing and efficiency. Wright is a good backup, but may not be a great #1 if Turner gets hurt. Their WR corps + Benjamin Watson is basically a bunch of complimentary pieces lacking a true #1. I rather like that style of play, but when you are looking for that big play from a single one-on-one (like at the end of games) you might not find the game-breaker shows up.
Wait, didn't the Bills playoff run last year depend on awesome offense? Yes, yes it did. But 38 TDs/13 INTs are sitting on a tractor or a couch, and the Bills have turned to BJ Symons to carry on from here. Along with that, Their top-2 WRs have both regressed, and their running game left in the offseason. The Bills are as bad off at HB as the Seahawks are this year, and they will need their defense to keep them in games this year.
SB Hangover? More like end of an era. At least they have a formidable mixture of vets and athletic "yout's" on the OL to cover some of their gaps. If that works, Morant may have one more magical year left of saving Brandon's bacon.
Defense
1. Patriots
2. Jets
3. Bills
4. Dolphins
Is this getting harder, or am I getting worse at it? Truth be told, I would take defenders from this division on my team as upgrades from any of the four teams...the strength of this division is clearly on this side of the ball.
The Patriots have my favorite mixture of awareness at every level paired with athletic traits. Athletically, they may be 4th, but not by much and at the right positions where the tradeoff is mitigated well by awareness. Johnathan Joseph is a difference-maker and perhaps the team's biggest DPOY candidate, and is supported well by McCourty and Patrick. In the front 7, their best players are at MLB (Ruud) and LE (Seymour) where both the run and pass will be most affected.
The Jets will be on sportscenter far more often and perhaps have the bigger plays, while I expect the Patriots to get a higher batting average of successful plays leading to a better overall shutdown of opponents best threats.
The Jets have the near-ideal mixture of a 6'0" 96 SPD CB, 6'1" 93 SPD CB, and a 6'2" 93 SPD CB patrolling the back ranks. Less ideal is the fact that none of them have attained the experience to have mastered man defense on every play, but Cox and Williams are going to win a lot. This secondary has the makings of the INT leaders for the year, and their safeties (Rouse, Watkins) will help there, while Yancy will fly around and drop INTs everywhere. In the front 7, the Jets are as athletic (or more) as the Cardinals, but with again more youth and less vet presence. This is probably a top-3 defense in the league, but it's hard to know if that will happen this year, or next.
My heart wanted to put the Dolphins here, but with the youth on the front-7 edges I think they'll struggle to stop the run and went with the Bills. Buffalo has a #1 CB in training (Chekwa) that needs a lot more seasoning. With crafty vets Sheppard and Smoot still around I think the Bills can win with the occasional Chekwa mistake. It's more problematic when all three CBs are 80 AWR or below. (Ask me how I know)
The Bills back 4 is also supported well by FS Alexander, but SS is a concern. The deep middle however is not, as this 3-4 is headed by Jonathan Vilma and Vontaze Burfict and will snag some INTs. The pass rush is spearheaded by Apolo's crush Terrance Knighton at LE, as well as Zak DeOssie at OLB from the 3-4 pass rush specialist position. This 3-4 will probably work quite well for another year, and could even be a top-10 defense but I am concerned about the defensive front overall
I love the Dolphins defenders. The'll prove me wrong (in this ranking) if:
- James Laurinaitis makes us forget about the OLBs/DE awareness (63 AVG)
- Aqib Talib & AOA ascend to become the top CB duo in the league
- Ben Emanuel asserts his dominance at SS (typically a tough position to produce excellence)
Von Miller, JPP, and Mario Williams present such a difficult prediction, as lost on the field as they are athletically gifted. I predict this front 7 is still 2 years away from being good unless their Urlacher of a MLB can cover all of these problems up.
Predicted Record
1. Patriots (10-6)
2. Jets (9-7)
3. Dolphins (7-9)
4. Bills (5-11)
I consider factors like strength of division, strength of schedule, and how the offense and defense fit together.
Playing the NFC West is a great clash of offenses vs defenses.
But with the veteran presence on both sides of the ball, I have the Patriots just edging the Jets for the division crown this year. If the Jets get the division, it will be on the strength of their defense that they lean.
The Dolphins will be be much better than a year ago, but I feel their youth at key spots will be keep them from reaching the playoffs in a division full of vets and strong defense.
The Bills 3-4 defense looks like a very nice unit, but the steps backwards taken on offense leaves them struggling to win more than 2 games inside of the division, and similarly struggling to make headway against the rest of their schedule.
