Prediction time
NOT following a pattern is partly why I went here. But let's be honest, watching Breck's transformation of the Colts, Apolo's attempt at a rebuild, the steady Wade Pearce and the snakebitten Olivier turn this division from a pushover to a division to be feared has been one of the more interesting subplots of the past two seasons.
Have they arrived? I don't think so.
Is this the year? Let's find out.
Analyst note: Some events in this writer's life put this series on hold the past 72 hrs. I will finish this out ignoring the first week's results, because frankly who the hell knows anything after week one?
AFC South
Offense
1. Colts
2. Titans
3. Jaguars
4. Texans
This is the division of up and coming QBs, with Brohm, Sanchez, and a little behind Osweiler & Mallett.
The Colts makeover has gone quite well, but let's be honest they are first because the have the HB (Tony Hunt), the best veteran QB in the division (Carr), and the most studly WRs in Baldwin, LeFell, and a great WR bench behind them in Brown, Gettis, and Harvin. It is clear that this offense can do damage on even it's worst days, and on their best days will rival anyone in the league. Baldwin could perhaps have that effect by himself, with not just the Randy Moss freakish athleticism at 6'5" but also a high break tackle ability.
The Titans will give them a good competition on offense, with Sanchize still up and coming but the best running back(s) in this division in Stewart and Green, the most intimidating duo in the league, with perhaps only the Falcons Jackson and Wilson in the running. If that was all, the Titans would just be the Panthers...but they added WRs Josh Gordan and Steven Hill in this year's draft. Jared Cook was the only weapon on offense (and had over 1200 yards last year to prove his worth) a year ago, but with the rookie WRs this offense is a threat on every level of the field.
The Jaguars with Brohm have been saying "wait till next year" for so long that he may retire before he finishes a season. That said, he is healthy for opening day and the Jaguars have some real threats. Dez Bryant is a true #1, while Randall Cobb will also take the top off of a defense without breaking a sweat. Blackman and Tate will bully many starting CBs, but lack the size and speed to be as special as Dez. All in all, this passing attack can put it all together, but it depends very much on Brohm and his mysterious cluster of injuries. In the backfield, Anthony Dixon had a breakout year last season, with 4.6 YPC despite a reputation for being too weak for his 6'1" 240 lb stature. At 24 years old, Dixon with another year like that may break into the top 10 or even the top 5 backs in a year or two.
The Texans have one of the best athletes at LT the league has ever seen. Oh, I mean let's talk about their offense. The Texans have to choose between trying to win with a mediocre veteran in Aaron Rogers, or develop the rookie Brock Osweiler. Either one could be a losing proposition this year. On offense, they have good but not great WRs, while their best HB (Edgerrin James) is very slow. This feels very much like a transition year for this particular offense. I do really like rookie Brian Quick, but his best years begin 3 years from now and he's going to flash greatness but not be a superstar here in year one.
Defense
1. Colts
2. Jaguars
3. Texans
4. Titans
The Colts are more one-dimensional (secondary) than the Jaguars or Texans. And yet, that dimension is so important and so overwhelmingly a strength for the Colts that it keeps them on top of this list here.
At CB, Indy plays Justin Millar and Sam Shields, two CBs with 94 speed, and 96 ACC. Miller is ready to shut people down, while Champ Bailey can also jump in against more average-speed WRs to form an elite duo, while Shields can play speedy WRs. To top it all off, FS John Wendling is also a good athlete for his position and has elite AWR and hands for a FS, and Domonique Barber is very fast and very good at SS. The Colts also have very fast linebackers if that were not enough, but others in the divsision are overall better in the front 7. In fact I think a good run-blocking team can take advantage of the awareness of the Colts front 7 and tear it to pieces...as long as they can keep the penetration of these athletic defenders at bay. This probably isn't a historically great defense anymore, but it's still probably a top 5 unit in the league.
The Jaguars have been building an elite unit for some time
now. Beck and Nate Allen are prototypes for their postions, while Antrel Rolle can flat out erase all but the top 5 WRs in the league. Across from him the Jags can play Ras-I Dowling or DeMarcus Van Dyke, a couple of triple-name heroes with incredible speed but a lot to learn. This lack of awareness at the "other corner," at FS, and across the edges of the front 7 will keep this splashy defense from drowning out the best offenses entirely.
The Texans have a REALLY good front 7. This team will look elite against a lot of clubs that need to establish running and short passes, and the unit may even end up top-15 in many stats. But in coverage, they have only CB Donald Strickland to rely on, and the crafty veterans Michael Huff & Tra Battle at safety, neither of whom will be fast enough to help on the deep ball against Baldwin, Bryant, and Gordon. The young CBs are also not speedsters, and without an AWR advantage or a speed matchup will struggle to slow down the many MANY deep threats that are now scattered across this league.
Like their offense, the Titans have some up and coming stars that are young and ascending. Casey Hayward at CB, Melvin Ingram at LOLB, Dont'a Hightower at MLB. The problem is their second best CB is Aaron Williams. And the second year pro can be a very effective player, but is not yet ready to cover consistently and there is no way 5 forced fumbles is predictive of his future capabilities. On the plus side, Leon Williams. Star at such a key and central position for both the pass and the run, and Courtney Watson is also a stud. Can the Titans play 3 MLBs?
Predicted Record
1. Colts (11-5)
2. Jaguars (9-7)
3. Titans (7-9)
4. Texans (3-13)
I consider factors like strength of division, strength of schedule, and how the offense and defense fit together.
The Colts have a very nice recipe for winning, and their turnaround was not a fluke. That said, I don't have them as a SB favorite but I do have the comfortably in the lead for the division.
The Jaguars I think will jump ahead and track in on a wild card. I don't think they are ready to do much else yet, but this is the start of a 2-3 year run for this talented team.
The Titans have fixed some things, but the polish is not yet there and some holes remain. If they figure out how to use the run and play-action to it's max potential, their own potential grows into a playoff team, but Sanchez is not quite ready to do much else.
The Texans will be better in a couple of years for developing a QB now. They may do better than 3 wins with their front 7, but overall I don't think this team can find a recipe to threaten this season.
