Prediction time
You expected me to save my own division for last?
Ha!
Continuing on, one of the more warmly contested divisions in the league is the NFC South, where there has not been a sole dominant force over the history of the division. Last season the dormant Buccaneers ended up victorious, albeit in a division that was headed towards zero winning records halfway through the year.
What made that doubly interesting was the addition of the Mellons, one untested and so far unsuccessful, and one majorly successful but coming to a moribund franchise.
AFC South
Offense
1. Falcons
2. Saints
3. Panthers
4. Buccaneers
None of the offenses in this division are breaking into the top 5 of the league. Looking through, I've got ATL first mostly on the strength of QB & HB. Manning and Couch are probably retiring this offseason, but for this year the Falcons have a starter and a backup in some order here, both with above 95 AWR and accuracy. At HB, is Steven Jackson and David Wilson, both acquired with 1st round picks. The OL might hold them back, but less than a year ago, while at WR Robinson, Young, and Meier are a more explosive trio than any other team in the division has. This offense will have some very good days.
The Saints drafted Andrew Luck, but have the best QB that is not retiring in David Greene. Greene has been great without too many elite WRs, and will have to be again. Moss, Smith, Jones & Williams don't belong in the top 30 WRs in the league, but can be a great group is the ball is spread around correctly. Similarly, LeShoure & Williams are not top-10 backs, but are each dangerous in their own way.
Drew Stanton had a surprisingly efficient season ast year, but is not yet ready to be elite. Mariana & Hankerson also outperformed (I think) their attributes but are good WRs, and are joined by 2nd rounder TY Hilton who will represent an improvement on the Mariani role when he gets into the starting lineup. While the OL is pretty good, the only truly great aspect of this offense is HB Marshawn Lynch. Perhaps great is a slight stretch, but his very good athletic profile has been burnished by an increasing ability to read defenses and break tackles. He looks ready to accomplish his best seasons here in the next couple years.
The Buccs I believe will stick with 24 year old rookie Kirk Cousins the entire season, as neither Kolb nor Flacco is a long term answer, and neither is ready to win games now. If Bryan gets impatient, Kolb is closest, and could win some games with the duo of Randy Moss and Andre Johnson added to the already good WRs the Buccaneers had. Andrew becomes the clear best weapon, while Michael Bush's growing skills make him the rock that Cousins will need to carry this team. How the Vikings lost patience with Bush and sent a future top-5 back away I will never be able to fully grasp, and Bush is entering his most elite skill years at the tender age of 26. It's a good thing the Buccs have such a great LT, as they'll need to bully teams in the run game to have a chance of competing in this division with Cousins.
Defense
1. Falcons
2. Buccaneers
3. Saints
4. Panthers
Defenses lead offenses in this division, and they could see 2-3 among the top 10 this year.
The Falcons let a couple of their members go, but retain nearly all of their team from last year, one of the leading pass defenses in the league. Specifically, their best defender is Mike Hawkins, a 6'1" corner with 97 SPD and 99 ACC. Few players in the league can run with the
now eight WRs that are 6'3" and 97 SPD, 95 ACC<> in this league. If I count only corners that are 6'1", 97 SPD, 95 ACC then there are a total of three. He is joined by two other 95 SPD young CBs that will get lost on many plays, while Hill can run with medium to fast WRs and has 85 AWR. The uniqueness to this group is the way their 46 is pieced together, with the second best DE in the division (Chris Long) the only first-rounder in the unit. The biggest weakness may be awareness at DT after the loss of Albert, but the Falcons maintain 3x DL starters above 80 AWR, with only Adrian Clayborn developing, and at linebacker the Falcons are also mostly developed. It works, especially with FS Bryan Scott over the top in perhaps his last year as a starter for ATL.
The Buccs and Saints are both arguable, but the Tampa gets the next slot on my list. There are 1st rounders at both OLB spots, and Beason/Smith are freaks! WIth Urlacher at MLB, Ed Reed and SS, and Kris Jenkins at DT the veteran middle is going to really show its strength in several games this year. The rest of the DL though is young and this front 7 will not look like the Redskins group without more years of seasoning. At corner, Macho Harris and Chris Harris (Jr.) are up and comers, but there are no vets that can run with deep threats. Major Wright also represents the future at FS, and you get the sense that this defense will look unmovable at times this year, but may be truly terrifying in another 3 seasons.
The Saints on the other hand have stopper Travis Daniels at CB and stud FS Mike Doss who has had bad injury luck in his career. Other than Daniels, they lack speed in the secondary, but can play the 92 SPD DeAngelo Hall and make up a lot of ground with the correct angles. This secondary will shut down many teams, but outside of MLB Tulloch have zero starters on the front 7 that have 71 AWR. The front 7 used to be a strength, and may be again but as they transition it will hold this team back a bit.
The Panthers are the youngest of all on defense, but have some burgeoning capabilities we're going to talk about. Richard Sherman is a very nice player at 6'3", though lacks the speed to shut down the best WRs in the league. He, Allen, and Franks would look a lot better if the roster had any safeties over 83 SPD though. The Panthers will allow some bombs this year, and need to balance it out with a good number of INTs for their gambles to pay off. Moving to the front 7, Peppers has been the gold standard at DE for a long time, and while he is regressing he is still going to wreak havoc from the LE position this year. Tommie Harris is a good running mate, and MLB Wallace will be a rock. There is too much development still needed at OLB and the DL for this front-7 to get where it needs to go this year.
Predicted Record
1. Falcons (12-4)
2. Saints (9-7)
3. Panthers (6-10)
4. Buccaneers (4-12)
I have ATL as the team with the best QBs and the least holes. This will turn out to be wrong if the youth movement at OL and WR diminish the heights the rest of this team can reach.
The Saints are the next most ready, although this would be the Buccaneers at 10-6 if they had a QB. The Saints transition year still may turn into a WC slot.
The Panthers are still putting it together, although with a draft like the one this year are accelerating their rebuild and can pass the other Mellon with good play this season from Lynch.
The Buccaneers are stuck in the middle with some veterans that want to win now, and a QB that doesn't know how. There aren't a lot of veterans out there, so I don't expect a move, but what the last great years for Johnson, Ed Reed, and other SFL legends look like may be more painful than anticipated. Will Bryan stick to the plan?
