Minnesota Vikings Regular Season and Playoff Game Planning
The Vikings had a goal at the beginning of the 2012 season beyond simply winning the Super Bowl. They had a goal of becoming a better game planning team. The Vikings GM has always felt like he has left much to be desired in the area of game planning and so the goal in 2012 was to become significantly better. To accomplish this goal we felt like we wanted to do two things: 1) Sim on a regular basis throughout the season and 2) Use 16 different offensive and defensive game plans over the course of the season never using one more than once during the regular season. We are happy to say we accomplished these two pieces of the game planning goal fully even if we couldn’t in the end bring home the Super Bowl trophy.
We designed a simulation/game planning process whereby the goal was to have a minimum of three successive wins with good underlying statistics to back up the win. We chose the following statistical categories as the determining factors: Total Yards, QB Rating, Completion %, Yards Per Carry, 3rd Down Conversion %, Defensive Turnovers forced, Defensive Sacks, Opponents QB Rating, Opponents Completion %, and Opponents 3rd Down Conversion %. We feel like these statistics, in particular, reveal how sound a game plan is or is not. While we did simulations throughout the regular season, it wasn’t until week 11 that we started to track them in some detail and so below you will see the results of this simulation/game plan process organized by week and by chronological order. We ultimately didn’t stop until we felt comfortable that there was a game plan that met the criteria of three successive wins with good underlying statistics to back up the win.
Remember the plan was to not use any game plan more than once during the regular season. So f you choose to browse through the below data you will see fairly quickly that many of the most popular game plans were not in the simulations. This is primarily because we already may have used them before week 11 and as a result did not intend to use them again for the rest of the regular season. This commitment forced me to explore other game plans and I think ultimately helped me develop additional skills in game planning though I will say I have much more to learn in this area. I don’t know that I will do this again, but it was a great commitment to have for one season.
Here are a couple of more notes before we get to the data. At the beginning of each week you will see the particular game plan that I ran simulations against. I do think this is an important piece to the process. Without having an idea of your opponents game plan, it can be more difficult to develop your own. Fortunately for me, most teams in weeks 11-16 stuck to a specific game plan most of the time making it easier to game plan against. Second, I tried to make extensive use of the playbook vs playbook feature on the league site. I used both this year’s data as well as almost all other year’s data as well. This feature is in my judgment a great addition to the SFL. You will be able to see if you look carefully why I ran simulations with certain game plans before others. It was because I often used the playbook vs playbook feature to narrow down the simulation process.
With these notes in mind, here is the actual data. After the raw data, I put together a simple win loss summary by playbook. I didn’t take the time to organize the playbooks they went against though the data is here for anyone who might like to do so. Enjoy and I hope this is helpful to GM’s as they seek to improve their game planning in 2013.
Week 11- Detroit Lions | Trick Plays 40 40 Balanced D 60 40
#1- Trick Plays 52 52 Browns 55 55
Win 23-16 | QB Rat 103.7 | Comp % 66 | YPC 4.5 | 3rd Down % 28.6
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 50.0 | Opp Comp % 40 | Opp 3rd Down % 15.4
#2- Trick Plays 52 52 Browns 55 55
Win 35-0 | Total Yards 349-145 | QB Rat 130.3 | Comp % 75 | YPC 5.0 | 3rd Down % 61
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 37.2 | Opp Comp % 38 | Opp 3rd Down % 18
#3- Trick Plays 52 52 Browns 55 55
Win 27-14 | Total Yards 373-225 | QB Rat 81.0 | Comp % 51 | YPC 6.1 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 60.8 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 30
#4- Ravens 52 52 Browns 55 55
Win 27-24 | Total Yards 463-300 | QB Rat 122.5 | Comp % 65 | YPC 3.8 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 122.4 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 30
#5- Ravens 52 52 Browns 55 55
Win 20-14 | Total Yards DET 266-265 | QB Rat 85.4 | Comp % 43 | YPC 2.4 | 3rd Down % 13
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 61.6 | Opp Comp % 47 | Opp 3rd Down % 26
#6- Vikings 52 52 Washington 55 55
Win 26-9 | Total Yards 369-265 | QB Rat 88.4 | Comp % 48 | YPC 5.1 | 3rd Down % 36
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 6 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 80.6 | Opp Comp % 56 | Opp 3rd Down % 21
#7- Vikings 52 52 Washington 55 55
Loss 23-20 | Total Yards 409-363 | QB Rat 96.7 | Comp % 44 | 3rd Down % 38
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 105.7 | Opp Comp % 55 | Opp 3rd Down % 25
#8- Colts 52 52 Vikings 55 55
Loss 16-10 | Total Yards 367-188 | QB Rat 58.2 | Comp % 48 | YPC 3.0 | 3rd Down % 37
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 77.7 | Opp Comp % 59 | Opp 3rd Down % 20
#9- Vikings 52 52 Vikings 55 55
Win 30-9 | Total Yards 295-286 | QB Rat 109.6 | Comp % 47 | YPC 2.9 | 3rd Down % 21
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 47.1 | Opp Comp % 40 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#10- Chiefs 52 52 Chiefs 55 55
Win 20-10 | Total Yards DET 266-229 | QB Rat 60.2 | Comp % 52 | YPC 3.7 | 3rd Down % 36
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 45.1 | Opp Comp % 47 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#11- Falcons 50 50 Eagles 55 55
Win 44-14 | Total Yards 454-183 | QB Rat 123.1 | Comp % 58 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 18
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 55.5 | Opp Comp % 47 | Opp 3rd Down % 25
#12- Falcons 50 50 Eagles 55 55
Win 24-6 | Total Yards 322-189 | QB Rat 148.9 | Comp % 72 | YPC 3.2 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 3 Turnover | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 26.4 | Opp Comp % 42 | Opp 3rd Down % 27
#13- Falcons 50 50 Eagles 55 55
Win 24-23 | Total Yards 406-233 | QB Rat 83.5 | Comp % 41 | YPC 2.4 | 3rd Down % 36
DEF- 1 Turnover | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 62.5 | Opp Comp % 48 | Opp 3rd Down % 35
#14- Falcons 50 50 Eagles 55 55
Win 32-7 | Total Yards 359-98 | QB Rat 118.0 | Comp % 56 | YPC 5.2 | 3rd Down % 41
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 12.0 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 36
Actual Game Plan and Results
Falcons 50 50 Eagles 55 55
Loss 27-23 | Total Yards 435-372 | QB Rat 106.9 | Comp % 63.0 | YPC 6.0 | 3rd Down % 31
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 96.7 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
Week 12- Jacksonville Jaguars | Jags 70 50 46 70 55
#1- Jags 70 50 Browns 55 55
Loss 37-3 | Total Yards- JAX 404-172 | QB Rat 26.4 | Comp % 38 | YPC 2.0 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 95.1 | Opp Comp % 63 | Opp 3rd Down % 56
#2- Saints 52 52 49ers 55 55
Loss 16-12 | Total Yards- 290-265 | QB Rat 80.0 | Comp % 55 | YPC 5.2 | 3rd Down % 9
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 67.0 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 28
#3- Saints 52 52 49ers 55 55
Win 27-17 | Total Yards- 362-255 | QB Rat 113.4 | Comp % 57 | YPC 3.7 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 100.3 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 27
#4- Saints 52 52 49ers 55 55
Loss 27-13 | Total Yards- JAX 374-330 | QB Rat 51.3 | Comp % 55 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 35
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 108.3 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 54
#5- Trick Plays 52 52 3-4 55 55
Loss 26-23 OT | Total Yards- JAX 337-315 | QB Rat 70.0 | Comp % 54 | YPC 2.6 | 3rd Down % 35
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 62.2 | Opp Comp % 42 | Opp 3rd Down % 47
#6- Eagles 52 52 3-4 55 55
Loss 21-16 | Total Yards- 362-347 | QB Rat 78.7 | Comp % 59 | YPC 2.3 | 3rd Down % 16
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 63.2 | Opp Comp % 51 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#7- Jags 60 60 Bills 55 55
Loss 29-24 | Total Yards- 445-366 | QB Rat 74.0 | Comp % 51 | YPC 4.4 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 112.1 | Opp Comp % 68 | Opp 3rd Down % 50
#8- Jags 60 60 Bills 55 55
Loss 13-10 | Total Yards- JAX 314-272 | QB Rat 82.2 | Comp % 60 | YPC 6.2 | 3rd Down % 25
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 78.4 | Opp Comp % 55 | Opp 3rd Down % 34
#9- Jags 21 21 Lions 55 55
Loss 22-17 | Total Yards- JAX 397-256 | QB Rat 62.1 | Comp % 52 | YPC 3.8 | 3rd Down % 55
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 104.0 | Opp Comp % 66 | Opp 3rd Down % 75
Actual Game Plan and Results
Saints 50 50 49ers 55 55
Win 38-6 | Total Yards 489-281 | QB Rat 131.3 | Comp % 70 | YPC 5.6 | 3rd Down % 65
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1Sack | Opp QB Rat 45.6 | Opp Comp % 49 | Opp 3rd Down % 29
Week 13- Chicago Bears | Steelers 40 35 Ravens 55 58
#1- Raiders 50 50 3-4 55 55
Win 30-17 | Total Yards- CHI 436-375 | QB Rat 103.4 | Comp % 61 | YPC 4.6 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 86.9 | Opp Comp % 55 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#2- Raiders 50 50 3-4 55 55
Win 25-10 | Total Yards- 353-192 | QB Rat 72.3 | Comp % 60 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 41
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 14.1 | Opp Comp % 32 | Opp 3rd Down % 23
#3- Packers 50 50 Chargers 55 55
Loss 24-10 | Total Yards- CHI 330-290 | QB Rat 77.1 | Comp % 47 | YPC 4.7 | 3rd Down % 26
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 61.3 | Opp Comp % 55 | Opp 3rd Down % 42
#4- Jets 50 50 Broncos 55 55
Win 41-24 | Total Yards- 358-346 | QB Rat 92.7 | Comp % 60 | YPC 4.0 | 3rd Down % 64
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 56.5 | Opp Comp % 37 | Opp 3rd Down % 12
#5- Jets 50 50 Broncos 55 55
Loss 15-14 | Total Yards- CHI 374-196 | QB Rat 66.8 | Comp % 33 | YPC 3.1 | 3rd Down % 18
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 54.2 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#6- Vikings 50 50 Rams 55 55
Win 44-10 | Total Yards- CHI 375-286 | QB Rat 76.4 | Comp % 61 | YPC 5.1 | 3rd Down % 28
DEF- 5 Turnovers | 5 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 54.7 | Opp Comp % 57 | Opp 3rd Down % 18
#7- Vikings 50 50 Rams 55 55
Win 23-20 | Total Yards- CHI 375-275 | QB Rat 76.4 | Comp % 60 | YPC 3.3 | 3rd Down % 41
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 113.7 | Opp Comp % 64 | Opp 3rd Down % 41
#8- Raiders 50 50 3-4 55 55
Win 30-17 | Total Yards- CHI 337-311 | QB Rat 80.4 | Comp % 42 | YPC 5.1 | 3rd Down % 43
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 55.8 | Opp Comp % 45 | Opp 3rd Down % 43
#9- Patriots 50 50 3-4 55 55
Loss 38-35 | Total Yards- 464-403 | QB Rat 106.9 | Comp % 73 | YPC 5.4 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 92.0 | Opp Comp % 62 | Opp 3rd Down % 44
#10- Patriots 50 50 Steelers 55 55
Win 27-20 | Total Yards- 359-342 | QB Rat 92.6 | Comp % 55 | YPC 4.1 | 3rd Down % 42
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 65.6 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#11- Patriots 50 50 Steelers 55 55
Win 41-7 | Total Yards- 404-187 | QB Rat 113.6 | Comp % 66 | YPC 2.0 | 3rd Down % 73
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 28.3 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 25
Actual Game Plan and Results
Patriots 50 50 Steelers 55 55
Win 37-27 | Total Yards CHI 398-325 | QB Rat 117.6 | Comp % 59 | YPC 3.0 | 3rd Down % 23
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 1Sack | Opp QB Rat 61.1 | Opp Comp % 49 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
Week 14- Seattle Seahawks | Trick Plays 58 58 Saints 4-3 40 40
#1- Eagles 50 50 Giants 55 55
Win 33-31 | Total Yards- SEA 449-360 | QB Rat 92.5 | Comp % 56 | YPC 4.8 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 115.4 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#2- Eagles 50 50 Jags 55 55
Win 31-25 | Total Yards- SEA 411-321 | QB Rat 118.2 | Comp % 58 | YPC 3.8 | 3rd Down % 18
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 70.1 | Opp Comp % 47 | Opp 3rd Down % 50
#3- Colts 50 50 Bengals 55 55
Loss 31-12 | Total Yards- SEA 425-323 | QB Rat 79.9 | Comp % 53 | YPC 4.4 | 3rd Down % 18
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 106.6 | Opp Comp % 77 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#4- Was 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Loss 30-28 | Total Yards- 381-360 | QB Rat 141.5 | Comp % 63 | YPC 6.4 | 3rd Down % 37
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 105.5 | Opp Comp % 56 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#5- Was 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 30-13| Total Yards- 480-315 | QB Rat 87.8 | Comp % 47 | YPC 4.9 | 3rd Down % 41
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 74.6 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 38
#6- Was 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 23-17 | Total Yards- 311-250 | QB Rat 78.0 | Comp % 55 | YPC 2.6 | 3rd Down % 38
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 66.2 | Opp Comp % 62 | Opp 3rd Down % 38
#7- Browns 50 50 Raiders 55 55
Loss 22-12 | Total Yards- SEA 386-277 | QB Rat 44.7 | Comp % 55 | YPC 4.4 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 92.6 | Opp Comp % 57 | Opp 3rd Down % 27
#8- Steelers 50 50 Dolphins 55 55
Win 34-9 | Total Yards- 406-337 | QB Rat 137.4 | Comp % 60 | YPC 3.7 | 3rd Down % 43
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 50.1 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 31
#9- Steelers 50 50 Dolphins 55 55
Win 45-17 | Total Yards- 527-319 | QB Rat 122.3 | Comp % 62 | YPC 2.9 | 3rd Down % 72
DEF- 1 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 69.1 | Opp Comp % 51 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#10- Steelers 50 50 Dolphins 55 55
Win 34-31 | Total Yards- 447-398 | QB Rat 114.0 | Comp % 55 | YPC 2.0 | 3rd Down % 43
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 75.7 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 45
Actual Game Plan and Results
Steelers 50 50 Dolphins 55 55
Loss 29-26 | Total Yards- SEA 445-375 | QB Rat 115.4 | Comp % 63 | YPC 2.9 | 3rd Down % 40
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 103.6 | Opp Comp % 65 | Opp 3rd Down % 36
Week 15- Detroit Lions | Trick Plays 40 40 Balanced D 55 40
#1- Trick Plays 50 50 Giants 55 55
Loss 33-22 | Total Yards- 406-326 | QB Rat 81.5 | Comp % 56 | YPC 1.8 | 3rd Down % 33
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 36.4 | Opp Comp % 30 | Opp 3rd Down % 37
#2- Washington 50 50 Bengals 55 55
Win 26-23 | Total Yards- DET 382-350 | QB Rat 81.0 | Comp % 55 | YPC 1.6 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 128.9 | Opp Comp % 62 | Opp 3rd Down % 36
#3- Saints 50 50 Ravens 55 55
Win 27-7 | Total Yards- 288-214 | QB Rat 79.6 | Comp % 41 | YPC 3.5 | 3rd Down % 23
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 54.5 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#4- Saints 50 50 Ravens 55 55
Win 27-13 | Total Yards- 334-238 | QB Rat 151.9 | Comp % 72 | YPC 4.1 | 3rd Down % 57
DEF- 1 Turnover | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 68.4 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 50
#5- Saints 50 50 Ravens 55 55
Win 23-13 | Total Yards- 351-327 | QB Rat 88.3 | Comp % 57 | YPC 3.7 | 3rd Down % 58
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 87.6 | Opp Comp % 60 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#6- Trick Plays 50 50 Vikings 55 55
Loss 19-13 OT | Total Yards- DET 406-307 | QB Rat 83.5 | Comp % 51 | YPC 2.7 | 3rd Down % 56
DEF- 1 Turnover | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 102.7 | Opp Comp % 46 | Opp 3rd Down % 47
#7- Pass Balanced 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 33-21 | Total Yards- 452-317 | QB Rat 84.2 | Comp % 58 | YPC 4.0 | 3rd Down % 56
DEF- 1 Turnover | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 102.7 | Opp Comp % 37 | Opp 3rd Down % 18
#8- Pass Balanced 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 31-17 | Total Yards- 309-273 | QB Rat 78.2 | Comp % 50 | YPC 5.3 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 56.1 | Opp Comp % 43 | Opp 3rd Down % 18
#9- Pass Balanced 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 29-13 | Total Yards- DET 234-228 | QB Rat 36.9 | Comp % 38 | YPC 4.1 | 3rd Down % 28
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 36.0 | Opp Comp % 48 | Opp 3rd Down % 38
#10- Raiders 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 41-13 | Total Yards- 418-345 | QB Rat 94.8 | Comp % 57 | YPC 3.8 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 7 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 58.0 | Opp Comp % 46 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#11- Raiders 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 34-10 | Total Yards- 488-334 | QB Rat 114.9 | Comp % 59 | YPC 8.4 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 57.9 | Opp Comp % 36 | Opp 3rd Down % 35
#12- Raiders 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 20-17 | Total Yards- 331-262 | QB Rat 86.8 | Comp % 53 | YPC 4.2 | 3rd Down % 42
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 80.6 | Opp Comp % 51 | Opp 3rd Down % 20
Actual Game Plan and Results
Raiders 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Win 27-3 | Total Yards- 309-258 | QB Rat 110.0 | Comp % 46 | YPC 1.9 | 3rd Down % 40
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 39.7 | Opp Comp % 43 | Opp 3rd Down % 12
Week 16- Green Bay Packers | Trick Plays 40 40 Balanced D 55 40
#1- Jaguars 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 29-27 | Total Yards- 440-289 | QB Rat 83.0 | Comp % 55 | YPC 2.7 | 3rd Down % 33
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 93.4 | Opp Comp % 46 | Opp 3rd Down % 40
#2- Jaguars 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 24-14 | Total Yards- 326-322 | QB Rat 119.2 | Comp % 66 | YPC 3.3 | 3rd Down % 41
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 61.1 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 45
#3- Jaguars 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 43-23 | Total Yards- GB 346-299 | QB Rat 122.6 | Comp % 66 | YPC 3.8 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 43.0 | Opp Comp % 40 | Opp 3rd Down % 16
#4- Jaguars 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 24-21 | Total Yards- GB 380-341 | QB Rat 55.3 | Comp % 53 | YPC 6.2 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 88.3 | Opp Comp % 46 | Opp 3rd Down % 16
#5- Bucs 70 50 Vikings 55 55
Win 33-24 | Total Yards- GB 453-307 | QB Rat 124.9 | Comp % 45 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 0
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 46.9 | Opp Comp % 46 | Opp 3rd Down % 15
#6- Run N Gun 70 50 Raiders 55 55
Loss 21-7 | Total Yards- GB 300-293 | QB Rat 21.8 | Comp % 43 | YPC 8.5 | 3rd Down % 8
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 60.8 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#7- Chiefs 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 34-31 | Total Yards- GB 412-339 | QB Rat 107.2 | Comp % 53 | YPC 3.1 | 3rd Down % 36
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 107.3 | Opp Comp % 55 | Opp 3rd Down % 46
#8- Jaguars 70 50 Bengals 55 55
Win 47-10 | Total Yards- 449-318 | QB Rat 118.7 | Comp % 51 | YPC 4.7 | 3rd Down % 36
DEF- 5 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 32.1 | Opp Comp % 40 | Opp 3rd Down % 16
#9- Jaguars 70 50 Bengals 55 55
Loss 27-20 | Total Yards- 370-328 | QB Rat 90.9 | Comp % 58 | YPC 4.1 | 3rd Down % 18
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 92.9 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 23
Actual Game Plan and Results
Jaguars 70 50 4-3 55 55
Loss 26-20 | Total Yards- 369-338 | QB Rat 58.6 | Comp % 52 | YPC 4.2 | 3rd Down % 25
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 60.3 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 50
Week 17- WFT | Run N Gun 70 45 3-4 55 65
#1- Broncos 50 21 Bears 55 55
Win 52-38 | Total Yards- 604-486 | QB Rat 127.9 | Comp % 57 | YPC 3.5 | 3rd Down % 45
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 90.4 | Opp Comp % 53 | Opp 3rd Down % 52
#2- Broncos 50 21 Bears 55 55
Win 22-17 | Total Yards- 301-211 | QB Rat 59.3 | Comp % 52 | YPC 3.5 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 1 Turnover | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 72.2 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 45
#3- Broncos 50 21 Bears 55 55
Win 31-29 | Total Yards- WFT 417-263 | QB Rat 51.7 | Comp % 57 | YPC 4.7 | 3rd Down % 45
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 117.3 | Opp Comp % 62 | Opp 3rd Down % 41
#4- Trick Plays 50 50 Bears 50 65
Win 40-34 | Total Yards- WFT 442-414 | QB Rat 107.7 | Comp % 57 | YPC 4.5 | 3rd Down % 41
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 102.8 | Opp Comp % 57 | Opp 3rd Down % 21
#5- Trick Plays 50 50 Bears 50 65
Win 38-6 | Total Yards- WFT 386-257 | QB Rat 124.7 | Comp % 63 | YPC 2.0 | 3rd Down % 54
DEF- 1 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 31.5 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 36
#6- Trick Plays 50 50 Bears 50 65
Win 37-7 | Total Yards- 405-353 | QB Rat 108.4 | Comp % 58 | YPC 2.3 | 3rd Down % 43
DEF- 6 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 33.9 | Opp Comp % 40 | Opp 3rd Down % 0
#7- Trick Plays 50 50 Bears 50 65
Win 33-31 | Total Yards- WFT 467-363 | QB Rat 77.3 | Comp % 56 | YPC 6.3 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 110.2 | Opp Comp % 56 | Opp 3rd Down % 20
#8- Trick Plays 50 50 Bears 50 65
Loss 39-23 | Total Yards- WFT 439-394 | QB Rat 120.1 | Comp % 50 | YPC 7.6 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 94.8 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 35
#9- Jets 60 50 Vikings 50 65
Win 30-27 | Total Yards- WFT 387-323 | QB Rat 98.1 | Comp % 58 | YPC 4.7 | 3rd Down % 25
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 76.7 | Opp Comp % 60 | Opp 3rd Down % 53
#10- Jets 60 50 Vikings 50 65
Win 51-34 | Total Yards- 569-401 | QB Rat 135.4 | Comp % 66 | YPC 4.3 | 3rd Down % 40
DEF- 1 Turnover | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 100.4 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 27
#11- Jets 60 50 Vikings 50 65
Win 38-36 | Total Yards- WFT 504-293 | QB Rat 131.9 | Comp % 52 | YPC 2.3 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 94.0 | Opp Comp % 64 | Opp 3rd Down % 53
#12- Jets 60 50 Browns 50 65
Loss 20-17 | Total Yards- WFT 374-267 | QB Rat 70.2 | Comp % 48 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 59.9 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 57
#13- Jets 60 50 Browns 50 65
Loss 31-27 | Total Yards- WFT 421-391 | QB Rat 88.4 | Comp % 48 | YPC 5.8 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 123.4 | Opp Comp % 66 | Opp 3rd Down % 58
#14- Chiefs 50 50 Seahawks 50 50
Win 44-10 | Total Yards- 541-241 | QB Rat 147.5 | Comp % 64 | YPC 2.7 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 67.4 | Opp Comp % 45 | Opp 3rd Down % Unknown
#15- Chiefs 50 50 Seahawks 50 50
Win 27-24-OT | Total Yards- WFT 353-348 | QB Rat 80.3 | Comp % 40 | YPC 4.6 | 3rd Down % 38
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 71.4 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 44
#16- Chiefs 50 50 Seahawks 50 50
Win 20-10 | Total Yards- 365-248 | QB Rat 132.5 | Comp % 47 | YPC 5.0 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 61.2 | Opp Comp % 53 | Opp 3rd Down % 18
#17- Chiefs 50 50 Seahawks 50 50
Win 18-12-OT | Total Yards- 314-275 | QB Rat 63.4 | Comp % 41 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 21
DEF- 1 Turnover | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 62.4 | Opp Comp % 43 | Opp 3rd Down % 15
#18- Saints 50 50 Ravens 50 50
Win 40-17 | Total Yards- WFT 399-370 | QB Rat 113.2 | Comp % 52 | YPC 4.5 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 71.1 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 41
Actual Game Plan and Results
Broncos 50 21 Bears 55 55
Win 23-13 | Total Yards- 294-285 | QB Rat 62.1 | Comp % 44 | YPC 4.4 | 3rd Down % 44
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 65.5 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 38
Divisional Playoff Game- Saints | Broncos 60 55 Bears 45 60
#1- Saints 50 50 Bears 55 55
Win 37-13 | Total Yards- 470-342 | QB Rat 78.1 | Comp % 58 | YPC 5.6 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 5 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 29.1 | Opp Comp % 33 | Opp 3rd Down % 11
#2- Saints 50 50 Bears 55 55
Loss 24-15 | Total Yards- NO 315-265 | QB Rat 66.7 | Comp % 56 | YPC 3.5 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 108.6 | Opp Comp % 65 | Opp 3rd Down % 57
#3- Patriots 50 50 Patriots 55 55
Win 26-13 | Total Yards- NO 317-310 | QB Rat 100.1 | Comp % 73 | YPC 2.9 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 59.1 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 61
#4- Patriots 50 50 Patriots 55 55
Win 26-13 | Total Yards- NO 344-296 | QB Rat 127.3 | Comp % 72 | YPC 3.5 | 3rd Down % 53
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 54.7 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 50
#5- Patriots 50 50 Patriots 55 55
Win 20-13 | Total Yards- 394-284 | QB Rat 86.3 | Comp % 57 | YPC 2.1 | 3rd Down % 61
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 58.2 | Opp Comp % 53 | Opp 3rd Down % 27
#6- Patriots 50 50 Patriots 55 55
Win 34-31 OT | Total Yards- 516-386 | QB Rat 94.4 | Comp % 52 | YPC 3.2 | 3rd Down % 53
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 85.4 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#7- Cardinals 79 79 Cover 2 55 55
Loss 34-17 | Total Yards- NO 262-261 | QB Rat 46.1 | Comp % 41 | YPC 2.4 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 80.9 | Opp Comp % 52 | Opp 3rd Down % 53
#8- Patriots 50 50 Steelers 55 55
Loss 29-15 | Total Yards- NO 388-338 | QB Rat 52.2 | Comp % 57 | YPC 7.0 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 84.2 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 53
#9- Jaguars 70 50 Patriots 55 55
Win 59-38 | Total Yards- 599-430 | QB Rat 156.2 | Comp % 75 | YPC 4.0 | 3rd Down % 55
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 3 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 122.0 | Opp Comp % 60 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#10- Jaguars 70 50 Bears 55 55
Win 31-23 | Total Yards- 434-368 | QB Rat 101.1 | Comp % 62 | YPC 3.6 | 3rd Down % 38
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 88.9 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 54
#11- Jaguars 70 50 Bears 55 55
Win 27-13 | Total Yards- NO 348-286 | QB Rat 87.5 | Comp % 47 | YPC 2.2 | 3rd Down % 27
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 31.6 | Opp Comp % 31 | Opp 3rd Down % 35
#12- Jaguars 70 50 Bears 55 55
Win 38-35 | Total Yards- 460-394 | QB Rat 130.0 | Comp % 65 | YPC 3.7 | 3rd Down % 55
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 127.8 | Opp Comp % 58 | Opp 3rd Down % 53
Actual Game Plan and Results
Jaguars 70 50 Bears 55 55
Win 45-14 | Total Yards- 521-376 | QB Rat 129.5 | Comp % 67 | YPC 5.2 | 3rd Down % 62
DEF- 4 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 59.0 | Opp Comp % 51 | Opp 3rd Down % 30
Conference Championship Playoff Game- Falcons | Broncos 65 33 Ravens 60 44
#1- Saints 70 50 Saints 55 55
Win 48-37 | Total Yards- ATL-513-290 | QB Rat 140.0 | Comp % 69 | YPC 4.1 | 3rd Down % 66
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 88.2 | Opp Comp % 59 | Opp 3rd Down % 66
#2- Patriots 50 50 Bears 55 55
Win 23-17-OT | Total Yards- 390-292 | QB Rat 61.4 | Comp % 58 | YPC 6.0 | 3rd Down % 47
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 54.4 | Opp Comp % 48 | Opp 3rd Down % 25
#3- Patriots 50 50 Bears 55 55
Loss 30-24-OT | Total Yards- 425-299 | QB Rat 67.6 | Comp % 60 | YPC 2.5 | 3rd Down % 44
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 60.4 | Opp Comp % 41 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#4- Jaguars 70 50 Bears 55 55
Win 49-17 | Total Yards- 530-281 | QB Rat 143.3 | Comp % 80 | YPC 3.1 | 3rd Down % 70
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 82.9 | Opp Comp % 48 | Opp 3rd Down % 20
#5- Jaguars 70 50 Bears 55 55
Loss 30-18 | Total Yards- ATL-337-294 | QB Rat 49.2 | Comp % 42 | YPC 3.0 | 3rd Down % 16
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 70.1 | Opp Comp % 51 | Opp 3rd Down % 46
#6- Jets 50 50 Bears 55 55
Win 24-20 | Total Yards- ATL-416-321 | QB Rat 83.8 | Comp % 62 | YPC 3.9 | 3rd Down % 22
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 79.3 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
#7- Jaguars 70 50 Ravens 55 55
Loss 31-13 | Total Yards- ATL-414-276 | QB Rat 71.1 | Comp % 54 | YPC 4.3 | 3rd Down % 33
DEF- 1 Turnover | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 82.2 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 45
#8- Steelers 50 50 Steelers 55 55
Win 31-22 | Total Yards- ATL-441-339 | QB Rat 78.5 | Comp % 50 | YPC 3.4 | 3rd Down % 25
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 71.7 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 50
#9- 49ers 50 50 Cover 2 55 55
Win 23-20 | Total Yards- 348-301 | QB Rat 74.2 | Comp % 48 | YPC 4.7 | 3rd Down % 23
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 95.1 | Opp Comp % 53 | Opp 3rd Down % 28
#10- Cardinals 79 79 Cover 2 55 55
Win 37-14 | Total Yards- 405-279 | QB Rat 56.5 | Comp % 48 | YPC 5.0 | 3rd Down % 36
DEF- 3 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 21.9 | Opp Comp % 36 | Opp 3rd Down % 14
#11- Cardinals 79 79 Cover 2 55 55
Loss 19-15 | Total Yards- 410-309 | QB Rat 74.7 | Comp % 50 | YPC 4.0 | 3rd Down % 38
DEF- 1 Turnover | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 83.6 | Opp Comp % 60 | Opp 3rd Down % 30
#12- Saints 50 50 Cover 2 55 55
Loss 21-17 | Total Yards- 308-294 | QB Rat 98.0 | Comp % 53 | YPC 2.5 | 3rd Down % 35
DEF- 1 Turnover | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 79.9 | Opp Comp % 53 | Opp 3rd Down % 35
#13- Packers 50 50 Cover 2 55 55
Win 29-24 | Total Yards- ATL 365-322 | QB Rat 83.5 | Comp % 54 | YPC 2.9 | 3rd Down % 53
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 1 Sack | Opp QB Rat 85.8 | Opp Comp % 44 | Opp 3rd Down % 60
#14- Jaguars 70 50 Cover 2 55 55
Loss 27-24 | Total Yards- ATL 359-348 | QB Rat 82.3 | Comp % 60 | YPC 5.1 | 3rd Down % 30
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 87.5 | Opp Comp % 63 | Opp 3rd Down % 38
#15- Titans 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 41-24 | Total Yards- 462-453 | QB Rat 138.8 | Comp % 58 | YPC 4.4 | 3rd Down % 46
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 0 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 97.5 | Opp Comp % 54 | Opp 3rd Down % 23
#16- Titans 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 35-0 | Total Yards- 424-163 | QB Rat 146.4 | Comp % 63 | YPC 4.5 | 3rd Down % 54
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 4 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 33.0 | Opp Comp % 37 | Opp 3rd Down % 23
#17- Titans 70 50 4-3 55 55
Win 34-10 | Total Yards- 451-366 | QB Rat 109.9 | Comp % 68 | YPC 7.3 | 3rd Down % 50
DEF- 2 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 59.3 | Opp Comp % 50 | Opp 3rd Down % 36
Actual Game Plan and Results
Titans 70 50 4-3 55 55
Loss 33-27 | Total Yards- 415-346 | QB Rat 87.2 | Comp % 45 | YPC 5.1 | 3rd Down % 18
DEF- 0 Turnovers | 2 Sacks | Opp QB Rat 125.8 | Opp Comp % 62 | Opp 3rd Down % 33
Vikings 2012 Offensive and Defensive Game Plans
Week 1- Cowboys- Win 37-27- Giants 52 27 46 58 77
Week 2- Eagles- Win 31-17— Cardinals 79 79 Patriots 55 55
Week 3- Bears- Loss 44-10— Dolphins 52 27 Ravens 55 55
Week 5- Texans- Loss 19-16— Cowboys 52 27 Colts 55 55
Week 6- Saints- Win 20-7- Chargers 52 52 Cover 2 55 55
Week 7- Titans- Win 31-23— Seahawks 52 52 Balanced D 55 55
Week 8- Giants- Win 23-17— Lions 52 52 Saints 55 55
Week 9- Colts- Loss 41-23- Titans 52 52 Buccaneers 55 55
Week 10- Packers- Loss 31-26- 49ers 52 52 Panthers 55 55
Week 11- Lions- Loss 27-23- Falcons 50 50 Eagles 55 55
Week 12- Jaguars- Win 38-6- Saints 50 50 49ers 55 55
Week 13- Bears- Win 37-27- Patriots 50 50 Steelers 55 55
Week 14- Seahawks- Loss 29-26- Steelers 50 50 Dolphins 55 55
Week 15- Lions- Win 27-3- Raiders 50 50 QB Contain 55 55
Week 16- Packers- Loss 26-20- Jaguars 70 50 4-3 55 55
Week 17- Washington- Win 23-13- Broncos 50 21 Bears 55 55
Win/Loss Results for Simulations
Offensive Game Plans
Trick Plays 7-4
Ravens 2-0
Vikings 4-1
Jaguars 10-8
Saints 7-4
Eagles 2-1
Colts 0-2
Chiefs 6-0
Falcons 4-0
Raiders 7-0
Packers 0-1
Jets 4-2
Patriots 7-3
Washington 3-1
Browns 0-1
Steelers 4-0
Pass Balanced 3-0
Buccaneers 1-0
Run N Gun 0-1
Broncos 3-0
Cardinals 1-2
49ers 1-0
Titans 3-0
Defensive Game Plans
Browns 5-3
Washington 1-1
49ers 1-2
3-4 3-3
Bills 0-1
Lions 0-2
Vikings 4-2
Chiefs 1-0
Eagles 4-0
Chargers 0-1
Seahawks 4-0
Broncos 1-1
Rams 2-0
Steelers 3-1
Giants 1-1
Jaguars 1-0
Bengals 2-2
QB Contain 8-1
Raiders 0-2
Dolphins 3-0
Ravens 4-1
4-3 8-0
Bears 13-4
Patriots 5-0
Cover 2 3-4
Saints 1-0
Concluding Thoughts
There’s a ton of data to go through here in evaluation of simulation/game plans as well as the actual game plans themselves. Let me offer a few of my concluding thoughts concerning this information.
#1- I think simulating game plans actually helps teams win. It is not a guarantee but is a better predictor than doing nothing.
#2- There are good playbooks out there that are still relativity unexplored. For those GM’s willing to do the work, there are treasures to be had.
I hope other GM’s are able to profit from this as I have. In the end sharing information like this will help makes us all better.
|
