Ten Years Of #1 Draft Picks
With the 10th first round of SFL drafts in the books, we thought we would look back at all 10 first round draft picks in review.
2003 - 
Arizona Cardinals selected 
QB Carson Palmer
The first ever pick of the newly formed SFL can only be considered a success story. He finished his rookie campaign with a very respectable 87.7 QB rating which saw him awarded the Offensive Rookie of the Year. In his third season in Arizona, he tasted the ultimate success by leading the team to victory in Super Bowl IV. He was ultimately traded to the Washington Redskins after 5 seasons in Arizona in a high-value player trade and the move worked out well for the Redskins who won Super Bowl VIII during Palmer's second season at the franchise which was best performing season to date, finishing the year with a 97.8 QB rating.
He has continued to perform admirably for the team, which returned to the playoffs in 2011 after missing the 2010 post season.
2004 - 
Tennessee Titans selected 
QB Philip Rivers
Following the previous season's trend, the Titans picked Rivers to lead the team in the 2004 season. His rookie season with the Titans was far less successful that Carson Palmers, putting together a rather humbling QB rating of 64.0 as the Titans missed the playoffs. However, his follow-up performance showed exactly what he could do as he posted a season 96.1 QB rating as the Titans made it to the post-season. Unfortunately, his first playoffs were not the success he would have hoped for. The 2006 season was a rough one for the Titans who missed the playoffs and Rivers posted his lowest season QB rating of his career outside of his rookie year with an 82.1 rating. Ultimately, the Titans traded Rivers to the Browns in exchange for a more established QB and a superstar wide receiver.
The move to Cleveland would be a fresh start for Rivers who rebounded with a 92.3 QB rating and led the Browns to the AFC Conference game where they ultimately fell short to the San Diego Chargers. A return to the playoffs in 2008 saw Rivers post his highest playoff QB rating of his career of 112.5 across two game but the team once again fell short. The 2009 season brought Rivers so close to ultimate success where he led the Cleveland Browns to Super VIII on the back of his best season of his career, where he finished with a 106.3 QB rating. Ultimately, however, he fell short at the final hurdle, losing to the Washington Redskins being led by the 2003 first overall pick Carson Palmer. After his defeat in Super Bowl VIII, Rivers was traded to his third and current team, the New York Giants where he has only seen one playoff game.
Despite being denied the ultimate prize, Rivers has had a successful career to date. He has a tremendous playoff QB career rating and his regular season career QB rating of 90.0 is an admirable achievement given the difficulty of a consistent passing game in the league. Rivers would also be considered a success story.
2005 - Arizona Cardinals selected 
CB Brandon Browner
Unlike our first two #1 picks, Browner has spent his entire career in Arizona. For a fair comparison of his season, we need to compare him against other players who started their career in the SFL, not the NFL. By the top he retires, Browner will be Top 5, if not #1, in pass deflections; Top 10 in interceptions; and unfortunately Top 10 in catches allowed. For all his promise over his career, it hasn't translated into the turnovers you would hope such an investment would return.
Playoffs though are an interesting story. During the Super Bowl IV run of the Cardinals, he had a superb post-season with 3 interceptions, 6 deflections, a forced fumble, sack and 13 tackles. The 2010 NFC Conference run was another solid outing.
Probably the biggest positive for Browner is that he is a consistent secondary presence for the Cardinals who was definitive in helping the Cardinals win the Super Bowl. He might not have set the turnover world on fire like some of his contemporaries but most teams would still want him on their roster.
2006 - 
Detroit Lions selected 
WR Brandon Marshall
The seasons are shortening, but Marshall has to be considered a success as well. Recruited by the Lions, he played there for 3 seasons where he progressively put up more and more yards per season, culminating in Detroit in 2008 where he made 1,440 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. The Cardinals paid a king's ransom for Marshall in the 2009 offseason by trading 3 first round picks in exchange for him but Marshall only provided that the trade was worth it. He has posted 1,300+ yards for his 3 seasons in Arizona and double-digit touchdowns in each. In the 2011 season, his 21.63 yards-per-catch was his most productive. With 4 years left on his current contract and an athleticsm that will easily survive old age for a number of seasons, it is unlikely the Cardinals will be looking to move Marshall's production anytime soon.
2007 - 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected 
OT Joe Thomas
Joe Thomas is one of the most physically gifted offensive tackles to get drafted and has spent the first five years of his career in Tampa Bay until his 2012 offseason trade to Kansas City. The jury is still out for Joe as there is a minor knock to his case to be a complete success story and that is his sacks allowed count. Obviously we lack all the metrics to measure an offensive-lineman and we acknowledge Thomas plays at one of the most difficult offensive line positions. But there are contemporaries of Thomas, picked much later in the draft who have less sacks allowed than him across more seasons. This is not necessarily Thomas' own fault though as the Buccaneers struggled for a number of years so seeing how he fairs on a different roster to determine if it is personality or environment.
2008 - 
Pittsburgh Steelers selected 
WR Jordy Nelson
We are starting to get into player territory now where the jury is waiting for more evidence to make a case. The Steelers do play a unique offensive scheme with a focus on scrambling quarterbacks but Nelson has made full use of every opportunity he has had. While Brandon Marshall may be seen as having posted significantly more yards than Nelson, both players had 29 touchdowns to their name after 4 seasons which means Nelson is making use of every opportunity he is getting. Nelson is averaging a touchdown-completion ratio of 1:9. Across the same period, Marshall was averaging a ratio of 1:11. Nelson also has less drops across the first four seasons and more yards-after-completion.
Is Nelson setting himself up as a success story? Yes he is. He might not punch out the same yardage as other receivers, but his touchdown amount is on par with contemporaries like Marshall.
2009 - 
Minnesota Vikings selected 
CB Sean Smith
Sean Smith is a physical freak when it comes to the corner position, following the standard set by Brandon Browner in the 2004 draft. His first season saw Smith eased into the role an NFL cornerback but his second and third season have seen consistent growth and improvement. In 2011 compared to 2010, his first full season as a starter, Smith saw his tackle-for-loss, interception and deflection counts go up and his catches allowed drop. This is exactly the kind of improvement any team would want to see from their superstar corner.
Smith is a big body corner with blistering athleticsm and we predict Smith will become the success story he has always promised to be.
2010 - 
Jacksonville Jaguars selected 
WR Dez Bryant
To say Dez Bryant has exploded out of the blocks in his career is an understatement. After posting 1,473 yards and 12 touchdowns in his rookie season and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, he backed that up with 1,718 yards and 14 touchdowns in his sophmore season putting him in discussions for the Offensive Player of the Year and MVP awards.
While Marshall and Nelson set a standard for wide receivers, Bryant has re-defined it in his first two seasons. He is obviously a primary target for Brian Bohm in Jacksonville and with these number, we will expect to see these two being a long-term team-up the AFC South will come to loathe.
2011 - 
Indianapolis Colts selected 
WR Jonathon Baldwin
Dez Bryant re-defined what it meant to be a #1 overall wide receiver picked in the draft. Jonathon Baldwin took that blueprint and ran with it. A rookie season of 1,503 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns was an impressive start to a season that promises to become a successful one. While he did not reach Bryant-levels of touchdown production, Baldwin showed he has exactly what it takes to be successful in the SFL and we can only wait to see what happens.
2012 - Detroit Lions selected 
MLB Luke Kuechly
And the newest member of the "#1 Overall Pick Club" is Kuechly. The first linebacker in a decade of SFL to be picked first overall, Kuechly has some big shoes to fill. It will be intersting to see over the next couple of seasons how he progresses. Leon Williams in the 2006 season showed what could be expected of a rookie Top 10 middle linebacker rookie. James Laurinaitis, drafted 2nd overall in the 2009 draft has shown what such a product can do with a massive 142 tackles in his sophmore season. Why Kuechly may not have any direct first overall picks to compare against, there are some top 10 picks to measure him against.
Interesting Stats
- No college has had multiple #1 overall picks
- Arizona and Detroit are the only teams to pick first overall multiple times.
- The AFC South and NFC North have had the most first overall picks (3 for both).
- The AFC East, AFC West and NFC East have never had a team pick first overall.
- The most #1 picks by position are: WR (4), QB (2), CB (2), MLB (1), OT (1)
